* Parties vs Econ on Mon Feb 24 18:13:00 2025
- input data directory: .
- results directory: .
- transcript to: ./2024-10-28-parties-econ-transcript.txt
Loading data:
-------------
* Loading data from ./2024-10-28-parties-econ.tsv
- Found 48 columns and 11 rows:
Year President PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate Inflation U6 LFPR GDP
1 1977 Carter D D D 6.5 NA 62.2 NA
2 1978 Carter D D D 7.7 NA 63.2 13.0
3 1979 Carter D D D 11.3 NA 63.7 11.7
4 1980 Carter D D D 13.5 NA 63.8 8.8
5 1981 Reagan R D R 10.4 NA 63.9 12.2
6 1982 Reagan R D R 6.1 NA 64.0 4.3
VFINX VTSMX
1 NA NA
2 NA NA
3 -2.24 NA
4 13.65 NA
5 -16.05 NA
6 14.86 NA
...
Year President PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate Inflation U6 LFPR
43 2019 Trump R D R 1.8 7.2 63.1
44 2020 Trump R D R 1.2 13.7 61.8
45 2021 Biden D D D 4.7 9.4 61.7
46 2022 Biden D D D 8.0 6.9 62.2
47 2023 Biden D R D 4.1 6.9 62.6
48 2024 Biden D R D NA NA NA
GDP VFINX VTSMX
43 4.3 28.40 27.71
44 -0.9 17.14 19.24
45 10.9 20.07 17.34
46 9.8 -23.21 -24.48
47 6.6 22.03 21.79
48 NA NA NA
Consolidating data:
-------------------
* Averaging & compounding data by 2-year congressional terms
- Now have 24 rows x 12 columns
* Adding Better/Worse indicator variables
- Now have 24 rows x 18 columns
* Saving consolidated data to ./2024-10-28-parties-econ-consolidated.tsv
* Crosstabulation of political predictors:
- President vs House:
D R Totals
D 5 7 12
R 8 4 12
Totals 13 11 24
Pearson's Chi-squared test with Yates' continuity correction
data: tbl
X-squared = 0.67133, df = 1, p-value = 0.4126
- President vs Senate:
D R Totals
D 8 4 12
R 5 7 12
Totals 13 11 24
Pearson's Chi-squared test with Yates' continuity correction
data: tbl
X-squared = 0.67133, df = 1, p-value = 0.4126
- House vs Senate:
D R Totals
D 9 4 13
R 4 7 11
Totals 13 11 24
Pearson's Chi-squared test with Yates' continuity correction
data: tbl
X-squared = 1.4377, df = 1, p-value = 0.2305
* Biclustering econ correlations to ./2024-10-28-parties-econ-consolidated-bicluster.png.
- Correlation matrix (pairwise complete observations):
LFPR GDP U6 VFINX VTSMX
LFPR 1.00 -0.09 -0.23 -0.01 -0.06
GDP -0.09 1.00 -0.59 -0.16 -0.16
U6 -0.23 -0.59 1.00 0.28 0.32
VFINX -0.01 -0.16 0.28 1.00 0.99
VTSMX -0.06 -0.16 0.32 0.99 1.00
Fitting data:
-------------
* GDPIndic being predicted:
- Interactions included: TRUE
Call:
glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo)
Coefficients: (1 not defined because of singularities)
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) -1.0986 1.1547 -0.951 0.341
PartyPresidentR 1.0986 1.5275 0.719 0.472
PartyHouseR 19.6647 4612.2021 0.004 0.997
PartySenateR -0.4055 7988.5685 0.000 1.000
PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR -1.0986 7988.5683 0.000 1.000
PartyPresidentR:PartySenateR -0.6931 7988.5683 0.000 1.000
PartyHouseR:PartySenateR -18.1606 6522.6389 -0.003 0.998
PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR:PartySenateR NA NA NA NA
(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
Null deviance: 30.316 on 21 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 23.907 on 15 degrees of freedom
AIC: 37.907
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 17
- Prediction results: p ~ 0.0569657
Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat
3 1981-1982 R D R Better 0.2500000
4 1983-1984 R D R Better 0.2500000
5 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.2500000
22 2019-2020 R D R Worse 0.2500000
2 1979-1980 D D D Better 0.2500000
9 1993-1994 D D D Better 0.2500000
17 2009-2010 D D D Worse 0.2500000
23 2021-2022 D D D Better 0.2500000
14 2003-2004 R R R Better 0.3333333
15 2005-2006 R R R Better 0.3333333
21 2017-2018 R R R Worse 0.3333333
6 1987-1988 R D D Better 0.5000000
7 1989-1990 R D D Better 0.5000000
8 1991-1992 R D D Worse 0.5000000
16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.5000000
10 1995-1996 D R R Worse 0.5000000
11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.5000000
12 1999-2000 D R R Better 0.5000000
20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 0.5000000
13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 1.0000000
18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 1.0000000
19 2013-2014 D R D Worse 1.0000000
* InflationIndic being predicted:
- Interactions included: TRUE
Call:
glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo)
Coefficients: (1 not defined because of singularities)
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) 0.4055 0.9129 0.444 0.657
PartyPresidentR 19.1606 5377.0066 0.004 0.997
PartyHouseR -19.9715 7604.2355 -0.003 0.998
PartySenateR -38.4390 15208.4711 -0.003 0.998
PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR -19.1606 14226.2220 -0.001 0.999
PartyPresidentR:PartySenateR 18.8729 14226.2220 0.001 0.999
PartyHouseR:PartySenateR 38.4390 12023.3521 0.003 0.997
PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR:PartySenateR NA NA NA NA
(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
Null deviance: 31.492 on 22 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 16.094 on 16 degrees of freedom
AIC: 30.094
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 18
- Prediction results: p ~ 0.00149673
Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat
18 2011-2012 D R D Better 3.181005e-09
19 2013-2014 D R D Better 3.181005e-09
10 1995-1996 D R R Better 3.181005e-09
11 1997-1998 D R R Better 3.181005e-09
12 1999-2000 D R R Better 3.181005e-09
20 2015-2016 D R R Better 3.181005e-09
13 2001-2002 R R D Better 3.181006e-09
14 2003-2004 R R R Better 3.333333e-01
15 2005-2006 R R R Worse 3.333333e-01
21 2017-2018 R R R Better 3.333333e-01
3 1981-1982 R D R Worse 5.000000e-01
4 1983-1984 R D R Worse 5.000000e-01
5 1985-1986 R D R Better 5.000000e-01
22 2019-2020 R D R Better 5.000000e-01
1 1977-1978 D D D Worse 6.000000e-01
2 1979-1980 D D D Worse 6.000000e-01
9 1993-1994 D D D Better 6.000000e-01
17 2009-2010 D D D Better 6.000000e-01
23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 6.000000e-01
6 1987-1988 R D D Worse 1.000000e+00
7 1989-1990 R D D Worse 1.000000e+00
8 1991-1992 R D D Worse 1.000000e+00
16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 1.000000e+00
* LFPRIndic being predicted:
- Interactions included: TRUE
Call:
glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo)
Coefficients: (1 not defined because of singularities)
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) -1.163e-15 1.000e+00 0.000 1.000
PartyPresidentR 1.169e-15 1.414e+00 0.000 1.000
PartyHouseR 1.857e+01 4.612e+03 0.004 0.997
PartySenateR -1.504e+00 7.989e+03 0.000 1.000
PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR -1.443e-08 7.989e+03 0.000 1.000
PartyPresidentR:PartySenateR 4.055e-01 7.989e+03 0.000 1.000
PartyHouseR:PartySenateR -1.816e+01 6.523e+03 -0.003 0.998
PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR:PartySenateR NA NA NA NA
(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
Null deviance: 30.316 on 21 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 23.907 on 15 degrees of freedom
AIC: 37.907
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 17
- Prediction results: p ~ 0.0569657
Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat
10 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.2500000
11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.2500000
12 1999-2000 D R R Better 0.2500000
20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 0.2500000
3 1981-1982 R D R Better 0.2500000
4 1983-1984 R D R Better 0.2500000
5 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.2500000
22 2019-2020 R D R Worse 0.2500000
14 2003-2004 R R R Worse 0.3333333
15 2005-2006 R R R Better 0.3333333
21 2017-2018 R R R Better 0.3333333
2 1979-1980 D D D Better 0.5000000
9 1993-1994 D D D Better 0.5000000
17 2009-2010 D D D Worse 0.5000000
23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 0.5000000
6 1987-1988 R D D Better 0.5000000
7 1989-1990 R D D Better 0.5000000
8 1991-1992 R D D Worse 0.5000000
16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.5000000
13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 1.0000000
18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 1.0000000
19 2013-2014 D R D Worse 1.0000000
* U6Indic being predicted:
- Interactions included: TRUE
Call:
glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo)
Coefficients: (1 not defined because of singularities)
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) 2.097e-15 1.414e+00 0.000 1.000
PartyPresidentR 2.057e+01 1.773e+04 0.001 0.999
PartyHouseR -2.057e+01 1.254e+04 -0.002 0.999
PartySenateR 2.126e+01 3.471e+04 0.001 1.000
PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR 2.057e+01 2.803e+04 0.001 0.999
PartyPresidentR:PartySenateR -2.126e+01 2.401e+04 -0.001 0.999
PartyHouseR:PartySenateR -2.126e+01 3.071e+04 -0.001 0.999
PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR:PartySenateR NA NA NA NA
(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
Null deviance: 17.3232 on 12 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 6.5917 on 6 degrees of freedom
AIC: 20.592
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 19
- Prediction results: p ~ 0.0111543
Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat
18 2011-2012 D R D Better 1.170226e-09
19 2013-2014 D R D Better 1.170226e-09
11 1997-1998 D R R Better 1.170226e-09
12 1999-2000 D R R Better 1.170226e-09
20 2015-2016 D R R Better 1.170226e-09
14 2003-2004 R R R Worse 3.333333e-01
15 2005-2006 R R R Better 3.333333e-01
21 2017-2018 R R R Better 3.333333e-01
17 2009-2010 D D D Worse 5.000000e-01
23 2021-2022 D D D Better 5.000000e-01
13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 1.000000e+00
16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 1.000000e+00
22 2019-2020 R D R Worse 1.000000e+00
* VFINXIndic being predicted:
- Interactions included: TRUE
Call:
glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo)
Coefficients: (1 not defined because of singularities)
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) 1.099e+00 1.155e+00 0.951 0.341
PartyPresidentR -4.017e-15 1.633e+00 0.000 1.000
PartyHouseR -1.099e+00 1.826e+00 -0.602 0.547
PartySenateR 1.477e+01 2.400e+03 0.006 0.995
PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR 1.657e+01 2.400e+03 0.007 0.994
PartyPresidentR:PartySenateR -1.587e+01 2.400e+03 -0.007 0.995
PartyHouseR:PartySenateR -1.477e+01 2.400e+03 -0.006 0.995
PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR:PartySenateR NA NA NA NA
(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
Null deviance: 28.841 on 21 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 26.679 on 15 degrees of freedom
AIC: 40.679
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 15
- Prediction results: p ~ 0.239867
Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat
3 1981-1982 R D R Worse 0.5000000
4 1983-1984 R D R Worse 0.5000000
5 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.5000000
22 2019-2020 R D R Better 0.5000000
18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 0.5000000
19 2013-2014 D R D Better 0.5000000
10 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.5000000
11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.5000000
12 1999-2000 D R R Worse 0.5000000
20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 0.5000000
14 2003-2004 R R R Better 0.6666667
15 2005-2006 R R R Worse 0.6666667
21 2017-2018 R R R Worse 0.6666667
6 1987-1988 R D D Worse 0.7500000
7 1989-1990 R D D Worse 0.7500000
8 1991-1992 R D D Better 0.7500000
16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.7500000
2 1979-1980 D D D Worse 0.7500000
9 1993-1994 D D D Worse 0.7500000
17 2009-2010 D D D Better 0.7500000
23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 0.7500000
13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 0.9999999
* VTSMXIndic being predicted:
- Interactions included: TRUE
Call:
glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo)
Coefficients: (1 not defined because of singularities)
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) 0.6931 1.2247 0.566 0.571
PartyPresidentR 17.8729 6522.6387 0.003 0.998
PartyHouseR -0.6931 1.8708 -0.371 0.711
PartySenateR -19.2592 11297.5417 -0.002 0.999
PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR 0.6931 9224.4042 0.000 1.000
PartyPresidentR:PartySenateR -17.8729 6522.6390 -0.003 0.998
PartyHouseR:PartySenateR 19.2592 11297.5415 0.002 0.999
PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR:PartySenateR NA NA NA NA
(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
Null deviance: 20.190 on 14 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 15.956 on 8 degrees of freedom
AIC: 29.956
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 17
- Prediction results: p ~ 0.150198
Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat
22 2019-2020 R D R Better 8.646869e-09
10 1995-1996 D R R Better 5.000000e-01
11 1997-1998 D R R Better 5.000000e-01
12 1999-2000 D R R Worse 5.000000e-01
20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 5.000000e-01
18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 5.000000e-01
19 2013-2014 D R D Better 5.000000e-01
9 1993-1994 D D D Worse 6.666667e-01
17 2009-2010 D D D Better 6.666667e-01
23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 6.666667e-01
14 2003-2004 R R R Better 6.666667e-01
15 2005-2006 R R R Worse 6.666667e-01
21 2017-2018 R R R Worse 6.666667e-01
16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 1.000000e+00
13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 1.000000e+00
* Regression Akaike Information Criterion and Mann-Whitney rank p-values:
DepVar AIC p
2 InflationIndic 30.09438 0.001496729
4 U6Indic 20.59167 0.011154276
1 GDPIndic 37.90680 0.056965652
3 LFPRIndic 37.90680 0.056965652
6 VTSMXIndic 29.95594 0.150197855
5 VFINXIndic 40.67939 0.239867394
* GDPIndic being predicted:
- Interactions included: FALSE
Call:
glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo)
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) -0.4751 0.8729 -0.544 0.586
PartyPresidentR 0.4011 0.9971 0.402 0.688
PartyHouseR 2.0630 1.2726 1.621 0.105
PartySenateR -1.7829 1.2464 -1.430 0.153
(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
Null deviance: 30.316 on 21 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 26.224 on 18 degrees of freedom
AIC: 34.224
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
- Prediction results: p ~ 0.101755
Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat
3 1981-1982 R D R Better 0.1350702
4 1983-1984 R D R Better 0.1350702
5 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.1350702
22 2019-2020 R D R Worse 0.1350702
2 1979-1980 D D D Better 0.3834201
9 1993-1994 D D D Better 0.3834201
17 2009-2010 D D D Worse 0.3834201
23 2021-2022 D D D Better 0.3834201
10 1995-1996 D R R Worse 0.4514185
11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.4514185
12 1999-2000 D R R Better 0.4514185
20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 0.4514185
6 1987-1988 R D D Better 0.4815097
7 1989-1990 R D D Better 0.4815097
8 1991-1992 R D D Worse 0.4815097
16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.4815097
14 2003-2004 R R R Better 0.5513484
15 2005-2006 R R R Better 0.5513484
21 2017-2018 R R R Worse 0.5513484
18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 0.8303229
19 2013-2014 D R D Worse 0.8303229
13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 0.8796351
* InflationIndic being predicted:
- Interactions included: FALSE
Call:
glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo)
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) 0.2184 0.8565 0.255 0.7988
PartyPresidentR 2.0991 1.4882 1.411 0.1584
PartyHouseR -2.6306 1.3315 -1.976 0.0482 *
PartySenateR -1.7129 1.4930 -1.147 0.2513
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
Null deviance: 31.492 on 22 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 19.794 on 19 degrees of freedom
AIC: 27.794
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5
- Prediction results: p ~ 0.00282021
Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat
10 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.01590559
11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.01590559
12 1999-2000 D R R Better 0.01590559
20 2015-2016 D R R Better 0.01590559
18 2011-2012 D R D Better 0.08224747
19 2013-2014 D R D Better 0.08224747
14 2003-2004 R R R Better 0.11650654
15 2005-2006 R R R Worse 0.11650654
21 2017-2018 R R R Better 0.11650654
13 2001-2002 R R D Better 0.42236310
1 1977-1978 D D D Worse 0.55437654
2 1979-1980 D D D Worse 0.55437654
9 1993-1994 D D D Better 0.55437654
17 2009-2010 D D D Better 0.55437654
23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 0.55437654
3 1981-1982 R D R Worse 0.64671451
4 1983-1984 R D R Worse 0.64671451
5 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.64671451
22 2019-2020 R D R Better 0.64671451
6 1987-1988 R D D Worse 0.91031481
7 1989-1990 R D D Worse 0.91031481
8 1991-1992 R D D Worse 0.91031481
16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.91031481
* LFPRIndic being predicted:
- Interactions included: FALSE
Call:
glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo)
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) 0.06863 0.86049 0.080 0.9364
PartyPresidentR 0.34649 1.00822 0.344 0.7311
PartyHouseR 1.48841 1.26788 1.174 0.2404
PartySenateR -2.31134 1.25661 -1.839 0.0659 .
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
Null deviance: 30.316 on 21 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 25.688 on 18 degrees of freedom
AIC: 33.688
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
- Prediction results: p ~ 0.0569657
Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat
3 1981-1982 R D R Better 0.1305365
4 1983-1984 R D R Better 0.1305365
5 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.1305365
22 2019-2020 R D R Worse 0.1305365
10 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.3198857
11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.3198857
12 1999-2000 D R R Better 0.3198857
20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 0.3198857
14 2003-2004 R R R Worse 0.3994370
15 2005-2006 R R R Better 0.3994370
21 2017-2018 R R R Better 0.3994370
2 1979-1980 D D D Better 0.5171502
9 1993-1994 D D D Better 0.5171502
17 2009-2010 D D D Worse 0.5171502
23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 0.5171502
6 1987-1988 R D D Better 0.6023133
7 1989-1990 R D D Better 0.6023133
8 1991-1992 R D D Worse 0.6023133
16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.6023133
18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 0.8259281
19 2013-2014 D R D Worse 0.8259281
13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 0.8702899
* U6Indic being predicted:
- Interactions included: FALSE
Call:
glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo)
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) 3.000e-15 1.414e+00 0.000 1.000
PartyPresidentR 4.021e+01 1.411e+04 0.003 0.998
PartyHouseR -2.070e+01 9.501e+03 -0.002 0.998
PartySenateR -2.020e+01 1.043e+04 -0.002 0.998
(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
Null deviance: 17.3232 on 12 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 6.5917 on 9 degrees of freedom
AIC: 14.592
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 20
- Prediction results: p ~ 0.011621
Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat
11 1997-1998 D R R Better 2.220446e-16
12 1999-2000 D R R Better 2.220446e-16
20 2015-2016 D R R Better 2.220446e-16
18 2011-2012 D R D Better 1.018808e-09
19 2013-2014 D R D Better 1.018808e-09
14 2003-2004 R R R Worse 3.333333e-01
15 2005-2006 R R R Better 3.333333e-01
21 2017-2018 R R R Better 3.333333e-01
17 2009-2010 D D D Worse 5.000000e-01
23 2021-2022 D D D Better 5.000000e-01
13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 1.000000e+00
22 2019-2020 R D R Worse 1.000000e+00
16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 1.000000e+00
* VFINXIndic being predicted:
- Interactions included: FALSE
Call:
glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo)
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) 0.6840 0.8919 0.767 0.443
PartyPresidentR 0.5552 1.0205 0.544 0.586
PartyHouseR 0.2286 1.0695 0.214 0.831
PartySenateR -0.9982 1.0626 -0.939 0.348
(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
Null deviance: 28.841 on 21 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 27.748 on 18 degrees of freedom
AIC: 35.748
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
- Prediction results: p ~ 0.33309
Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat
10 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.4786013
11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.4786013
12 1999-2000 D R R Worse 0.4786013
20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 0.4786013
3 1981-1982 R D R Worse 0.5599451
4 1983-1984 R D R Worse 0.5599451
5 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.5599451
22 2019-2020 R D R Better 0.5599451
14 2003-2004 R R R Better 0.6152715
15 2005-2006 R R R Worse 0.6152715
21 2017-2018 R R R Worse 0.6152715
2 1979-1980 D D D Worse 0.6646331
9 1993-1994 D D D Worse 0.6646331
17 2009-2010 D D D Better 0.6646331
23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 0.6646331
18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 0.7135312
19 2013-2014 D R D Better 0.7135312
6 1987-1988 R D D Worse 0.7754218
7 1989-1990 R D D Worse 0.7754218
8 1991-1992 R D D Better 0.7754218
16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.7754218
13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 0.8127181
* VTSMXIndic being predicted:
- Interactions included: FALSE
Call:
glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo)
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) 0.3897 1.0380 0.375 0.707
PartyPresidentR 0.8776 1.2240 0.717 0.473
PartyHouseR 0.8221 1.4226 0.578 0.563
PartySenateR -1.5447 1.4429 -1.071 0.284
(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
Null deviance: 20.190 on 14 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 18.695 on 11 degrees of freedom
AIC: 26.695
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
- Prediction results: p ~ 0.337447
Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat
10 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.4175382
11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.4175382
12 1999-2000 D R R Worse 0.4175382
20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 0.4175382
22 2019-2020 R D R Better 0.4311006
9 1993-1994 D D D Worse 0.5962057
17 2009-2010 D D D Better 0.5962057
23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 0.5962057
14 2003-2004 R R R Better 0.6329155
15 2005-2006 R R R Worse 0.6329155
21 2017-2018 R R R Worse 0.6329155
18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 0.7706150
19 2013-2014 D R D Better 0.7706150
16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.7802823
13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 0.8898706
* Regression Akaike Information Criterion and Mann-Whitney rank p-values:
DepVar AIC p
2 InflationIndic 27.79392 0.002820207
4 U6Indic 14.59167 0.011620980
3 LFPRIndic 33.68798 0.056965652
1 GDPIndic 34.22406 0.101754654
5 VFINXIndic 35.74819 0.333089723
6 VTSMXIndic 26.69536 0.337446932
* Parties vs Econ completed Mon Feb 24 18:13:01 2025 (0.8 sec elapsed).