* Parties vs Econ on Sun Nov 03 10:37:55 2024 - input data directory: . - results directory: . - transcript to: ./2024-10-28-parties-econ-transcript.txt Loading data: ------------- * Loading data from ./2024-10-28-parties-econ.tsv - Found 48 columns and 11 rows: Year President PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate Inflation U6 LFPR GDP 1 1977 Carter D D D 6.5 NA 62.2 NA 2 1978 Carter D D D 7.7 NA 63.2 13.0 3 1979 Carter D D D 11.3 NA 63.7 11.7 4 1980 Carter D D D 13.5 NA 63.8 8.8 5 1981 Reagan R D R 10.4 NA 63.9 12.2 6 1982 Reagan R D R 6.1 NA 64.0 4.3 VFINX VTSMX 1 NA NA 2 NA NA 3 -2.24 NA 4 13.65 NA 5 -16.05 NA 6 14.86 NA ... Year President PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate Inflation U6 LFPR 43 2019 Trump R D R 1.8 7.2 63.1 44 2020 Trump R D R 1.2 13.7 61.8 45 2021 Biden D D D 4.7 9.4 61.7 46 2022 Biden D D D 8.0 6.9 62.2 47 2023 Biden D R D 4.1 6.9 62.6 48 2024 Biden D R D NA NA NA GDP VFINX VTSMX 43 4.3 28.40 27.71 44 -0.9 17.14 19.24 45 10.9 20.07 17.34 46 9.8 -23.21 -24.48 47 6.6 22.03 21.79 48 NA NA NA Consolidating data: ------------------- * Averaging & compounding data by 2-year congressional terms - Now have 24 rows x 12 columns * Adding Better/Worse indicator variables - Now have 24 rows x 18 columns * Saving consolidated data to ./2024-10-28-parties-econ-consolidated.tsv * Crosstabulation of political predictors: - President vs House: D R Totals D 5 7 12 R 8 4 12 Totals 13 11 24 Pearson's Chi-squared test with Yates' continuity correction data: tbl X-squared = 0.67133, df = 1, p-value = 0.4126 - President vs Senate: D R Totals D 8 4 12 R 5 7 12 Totals 13 11 24 Pearson's Chi-squared test with Yates' continuity correction data: tbl X-squared = 0.67133, df = 1, p-value = 0.4126 - House vs Senate: D R Totals D 9 4 13 R 4 7 11 Totals 13 11 24 Pearson's Chi-squared test with Yates' continuity correction data: tbl X-squared = 1.4377, df = 1, p-value = 0.2305 * Biclustering econ correlations to ./2024-10-28-parties-econ-consolidated-bicluster.png. - Correlation matrix (pairwise complete observations): LFPR GDP U6 VFINX VTSMX LFPR 1.00 -0.09 -0.23 -0.01 -0.06 GDP -0.09 1.00 -0.59 -0.16 -0.16 U6 -0.23 -0.59 1.00 0.28 0.32 VFINX -0.01 -0.16 0.28 1.00 0.99 VTSMX -0.06 -0.16 0.32 0.99 1.00 Fitting data: ------------- * GDPIndic being predicted: - Interactions included: TRUE Call: glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo) Coefficients: (1 not defined because of singularities) Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -1.0986 1.1547 -0.951 0.341 PartyPresidentR 1.0986 1.5275 0.719 0.472 PartyHouseR 19.6647 4612.2021 0.004 0.997 PartySenateR -0.4055 7988.5685 0.000 1.000 PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR -1.0986 7988.5683 0.000 1.000 PartyPresidentR:PartySenateR -0.6931 7988.5683 0.000 1.000 PartyHouseR:PartySenateR -18.1606 6522.6389 -0.003 0.998 PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR:PartySenateR NA NA NA NA (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 30.316 on 21 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 23.907 on 15 degrees of freedom AIC: 37.907 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 17 - Prediction results: p ~ 0.0569657 Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat 3 1981-1982 R D R Better 0.2500000 4 1983-1984 R D R Better 0.2500000 5 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.2500000 22 2019-2020 R D R Worse 0.2500000 2 1979-1980 D D D Better 0.2500000 9 1993-1994 D D D Better 0.2500000 17 2009-2010 D D D Worse 0.2500000 23 2021-2022 D D D Better 0.2500000 14 2003-2004 R R R Better 0.3333333 15 2005-2006 R R R Better 0.3333333 21 2017-2018 R R R Worse 0.3333333 6 1987-1988 R D D Better 0.5000000 7 1989-1990 R D D Better 0.5000000 8 1991-1992 R D D Worse 0.5000000 16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.5000000 10 1995-1996 D R R Worse 0.5000000 11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.5000000 12 1999-2000 D R R Better 0.5000000 20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 0.5000000 13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 1.0000000 18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 1.0000000 19 2013-2014 D R D Worse 1.0000000 * InflationIndic being predicted: - Interactions included: TRUE Call: glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo) Coefficients: (1 not defined because of singularities) Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) 0.4055 0.9129 0.444 0.657 PartyPresidentR 19.1606 5377.0066 0.004 0.997 PartyHouseR -19.9715 7604.2355 -0.003 0.998 PartySenateR -38.4390 15208.4711 -0.003 0.998 PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR -19.1606 14226.2220 -0.001 0.999 PartyPresidentR:PartySenateR 18.8729 14226.2220 0.001 0.999 PartyHouseR:PartySenateR 38.4390 12023.3521 0.003 0.997 PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR:PartySenateR NA NA NA NA (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 31.492 on 22 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 16.094 on 16 degrees of freedom AIC: 30.094 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 18 - Prediction results: p ~ 0.00149673 Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat 18 2011-2012 D R D Better 3.181005e-09 19 2013-2014 D R D Better 3.181005e-09 10 1995-1996 D R R Better 3.181005e-09 11 1997-1998 D R R Better 3.181005e-09 12 1999-2000 D R R Better 3.181005e-09 20 2015-2016 D R R Better 3.181005e-09 13 2001-2002 R R D Better 3.181006e-09 14 2003-2004 R R R Better 3.333333e-01 15 2005-2006 R R R Worse 3.333333e-01 21 2017-2018 R R R Better 3.333333e-01 3 1981-1982 R D R Worse 5.000000e-01 4 1983-1984 R D R Worse 5.000000e-01 5 1985-1986 R D R Better 5.000000e-01 22 2019-2020 R D R Better 5.000000e-01 1 1977-1978 D D D Worse 6.000000e-01 2 1979-1980 D D D Worse 6.000000e-01 9 1993-1994 D D D Better 6.000000e-01 17 2009-2010 D D D Better 6.000000e-01 23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 6.000000e-01 6 1987-1988 R D D Worse 1.000000e+00 7 1989-1990 R D D Worse 1.000000e+00 8 1991-1992 R D D Worse 1.000000e+00 16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 1.000000e+00 * LFPRIndic being predicted: - Interactions included: TRUE Call: glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo) Coefficients: (1 not defined because of singularities) Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -1.163e-15 1.000e+00 0.000 1.000 PartyPresidentR 1.169e-15 1.414e+00 0.000 1.000 PartyHouseR 1.857e+01 4.612e+03 0.004 0.997 PartySenateR -1.504e+00 7.989e+03 0.000 1.000 PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR -1.443e-08 7.989e+03 0.000 1.000 PartyPresidentR:PartySenateR 4.055e-01 7.989e+03 0.000 1.000 PartyHouseR:PartySenateR -1.816e+01 6.523e+03 -0.003 0.998 PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR:PartySenateR NA NA NA NA (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 30.316 on 21 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 23.907 on 15 degrees of freedom AIC: 37.907 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 17 - Prediction results: p ~ 0.0569657 Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat 10 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.2500000 11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.2500000 12 1999-2000 D R R Better 0.2500000 20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 0.2500000 3 1981-1982 R D R Better 0.2500000 4 1983-1984 R D R Better 0.2500000 5 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.2500000 22 2019-2020 R D R Worse 0.2500000 14 2003-2004 R R R Worse 0.3333333 15 2005-2006 R R R Better 0.3333333 21 2017-2018 R R R Better 0.3333333 2 1979-1980 D D D Better 0.5000000 9 1993-1994 D D D Better 0.5000000 17 2009-2010 D D D Worse 0.5000000 23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 0.5000000 6 1987-1988 R D D Better 0.5000000 7 1989-1990 R D D Better 0.5000000 8 1991-1992 R D D Worse 0.5000000 16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.5000000 13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 1.0000000 18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 1.0000000 19 2013-2014 D R D Worse 1.0000000 * U6Indic being predicted: - Interactions included: TRUE Call: glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo) Coefficients: (1 not defined because of singularities) Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) 2.097e-15 1.414e+00 0.000 1.000 PartyPresidentR 2.057e+01 1.773e+04 0.001 0.999 PartyHouseR -2.057e+01 1.254e+04 -0.002 0.999 PartySenateR 2.126e+01 3.471e+04 0.001 1.000 PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR 2.057e+01 2.803e+04 0.001 0.999 PartyPresidentR:PartySenateR -2.126e+01 2.401e+04 -0.001 0.999 PartyHouseR:PartySenateR -2.126e+01 3.071e+04 -0.001 0.999 PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR:PartySenateR NA NA NA NA (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 17.3232 on 12 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 6.5917 on 6 degrees of freedom AIC: 20.592 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 19 - Prediction results: p ~ 0.0111543 Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat 18 2011-2012 D R D Better 1.170226e-09 19 2013-2014 D R D Better 1.170226e-09 11 1997-1998 D R R Better 1.170226e-09 12 1999-2000 D R R Better 1.170226e-09 20 2015-2016 D R R Better 1.170226e-09 14 2003-2004 R R R Worse 3.333333e-01 15 2005-2006 R R R Better 3.333333e-01 21 2017-2018 R R R Better 3.333333e-01 17 2009-2010 D D D Worse 5.000000e-01 23 2021-2022 D D D Better 5.000000e-01 13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 1.000000e+00 16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 1.000000e+00 22 2019-2020 R D R Worse 1.000000e+00 * VFINXIndic being predicted: - Interactions included: TRUE Call: glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo) Coefficients: (1 not defined because of singularities) Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) 1.099e+00 1.155e+00 0.951 0.341 PartyPresidentR -4.017e-15 1.633e+00 0.000 1.000 PartyHouseR -1.099e+00 1.826e+00 -0.602 0.547 PartySenateR 1.477e+01 2.400e+03 0.006 0.995 PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR 1.657e+01 2.400e+03 0.007 0.994 PartyPresidentR:PartySenateR -1.587e+01 2.400e+03 -0.007 0.995 PartyHouseR:PartySenateR -1.477e+01 2.400e+03 -0.006 0.995 PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR:PartySenateR NA NA NA NA (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 28.841 on 21 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 26.679 on 15 degrees of freedom AIC: 40.679 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 15 - Prediction results: p ~ 0.239867 Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat 3 1981-1982 R D R Worse 0.5000000 4 1983-1984 R D R Worse 0.5000000 5 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.5000000 22 2019-2020 R D R Better 0.5000000 18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 0.5000000 19 2013-2014 D R D Better 0.5000000 10 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.5000000 11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.5000000 12 1999-2000 D R R Worse 0.5000000 20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 0.5000000 14 2003-2004 R R R Better 0.6666667 15 2005-2006 R R R Worse 0.6666667 21 2017-2018 R R R Worse 0.6666667 6 1987-1988 R D D Worse 0.7500000 7 1989-1990 R D D Worse 0.7500000 8 1991-1992 R D D Better 0.7500000 16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.7500000 2 1979-1980 D D D Worse 0.7500000 9 1993-1994 D D D Worse 0.7500000 17 2009-2010 D D D Better 0.7500000 23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 0.7500000 13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 0.9999999 * VTSMXIndic being predicted: - Interactions included: TRUE Call: glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo) Coefficients: (1 not defined because of singularities) Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) 0.6931 1.2247 0.566 0.571 PartyPresidentR 17.8729 6522.6387 0.003 0.998 PartyHouseR -0.6931 1.8708 -0.371 0.711 PartySenateR -19.2592 11297.5417 -0.002 0.999 PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR 0.6931 9224.4042 0.000 1.000 PartyPresidentR:PartySenateR -17.8729 6522.6390 -0.003 0.998 PartyHouseR:PartySenateR 19.2592 11297.5415 0.002 0.999 PartyPresidentR:PartyHouseR:PartySenateR NA NA NA NA (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 20.190 on 14 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 15.956 on 8 degrees of freedom AIC: 29.956 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 17 - Prediction results: p ~ 0.150198 Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat 22 2019-2020 R D R Better 8.646869e-09 10 1995-1996 D R R Better 5.000000e-01 11 1997-1998 D R R Better 5.000000e-01 12 1999-2000 D R R Worse 5.000000e-01 20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 5.000000e-01 18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 5.000000e-01 19 2013-2014 D R D Better 5.000000e-01 9 1993-1994 D D D Worse 6.666667e-01 17 2009-2010 D D D Better 6.666667e-01 23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 6.666667e-01 14 2003-2004 R R R Better 6.666667e-01 15 2005-2006 R R R Worse 6.666667e-01 21 2017-2018 R R R Worse 6.666667e-01 16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 1.000000e+00 13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 1.000000e+00 * Regression Akaike Information Criterion and Mann-Whitney rank p-values: DepVar AIC p 2 InflationIndic 30.09438 0.001496729 4 U6Indic 20.59167 0.011154276 1 GDPIndic 37.90680 0.056965652 3 LFPRIndic 37.90680 0.056965652 6 VTSMXIndic 29.95594 0.150197855 5 VFINXIndic 40.67939 0.239867394 * GDPIndic being predicted: - Interactions included: FALSE Call: glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo) Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -0.4751 0.8729 -0.544 0.586 PartyPresidentR 0.4011 0.9971 0.402 0.688 PartyHouseR 2.0630 1.2726 1.621 0.105 PartySenateR -1.7829 1.2464 -1.430 0.153 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 30.316 on 21 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 26.224 on 18 degrees of freedom AIC: 34.224 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 - Prediction results: p ~ 0.101755 Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat 3 1981-1982 R D R Better 0.1350702 4 1983-1984 R D R Better 0.1350702 5 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.1350702 22 2019-2020 R D R Worse 0.1350702 2 1979-1980 D D D Better 0.3834201 9 1993-1994 D D D Better 0.3834201 17 2009-2010 D D D Worse 0.3834201 23 2021-2022 D D D Better 0.3834201 10 1995-1996 D R R Worse 0.4514185 11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.4514185 12 1999-2000 D R R Better 0.4514185 20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 0.4514185 6 1987-1988 R D D Better 0.4815097 7 1989-1990 R D D Better 0.4815097 8 1991-1992 R D D Worse 0.4815097 16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.4815097 14 2003-2004 R R R Better 0.5513484 15 2005-2006 R R R Better 0.5513484 21 2017-2018 R R R Worse 0.5513484 18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 0.8303229 19 2013-2014 D R D Worse 0.8303229 13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 0.8796351 * InflationIndic being predicted: - Interactions included: FALSE Call: glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo) Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) 0.2184 0.8565 0.255 0.7988 PartyPresidentR 2.0991 1.4882 1.411 0.1584 PartyHouseR -2.6306 1.3315 -1.976 0.0482 * PartySenateR -1.7129 1.4930 -1.147 0.2513 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 31.492 on 22 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 19.794 on 19 degrees of freedom AIC: 27.794 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 - Prediction results: p ~ 0.00282021 Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat 10 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.01590559 11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.01590559 12 1999-2000 D R R Better 0.01590559 20 2015-2016 D R R Better 0.01590559 18 2011-2012 D R D Better 0.08224747 19 2013-2014 D R D Better 0.08224747 14 2003-2004 R R R Better 0.11650654 15 2005-2006 R R R Worse 0.11650654 21 2017-2018 R R R Better 0.11650654 13 2001-2002 R R D Better 0.42236310 1 1977-1978 D D D Worse 0.55437654 2 1979-1980 D D D Worse 0.55437654 9 1993-1994 D D D Better 0.55437654 17 2009-2010 D D D Better 0.55437654 23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 0.55437654 3 1981-1982 R D R Worse 0.64671451 4 1983-1984 R D R Worse 0.64671451 5 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.64671451 22 2019-2020 R D R Better 0.64671451 6 1987-1988 R D D Worse 0.91031481 7 1989-1990 R D D Worse 0.91031481 8 1991-1992 R D D Worse 0.91031481 16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.91031481 * LFPRIndic being predicted: - Interactions included: FALSE Call: glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo) Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) 0.06863 0.86049 0.080 0.9364 PartyPresidentR 0.34649 1.00822 0.344 0.7311 PartyHouseR 1.48841 1.26788 1.174 0.2404 PartySenateR -2.31134 1.25661 -1.839 0.0659 . --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 30.316 on 21 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 25.688 on 18 degrees of freedom AIC: 33.688 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 - Prediction results: p ~ 0.0569657 Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat 3 1981-1982 R D R Better 0.1305365 4 1983-1984 R D R Better 0.1305365 5 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.1305365 22 2019-2020 R D R Worse 0.1305365 10 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.3198857 11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.3198857 12 1999-2000 D R R Better 0.3198857 20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 0.3198857 14 2003-2004 R R R Worse 0.3994370 15 2005-2006 R R R Better 0.3994370 21 2017-2018 R R R Better 0.3994370 2 1979-1980 D D D Better 0.5171502 9 1993-1994 D D D Better 0.5171502 17 2009-2010 D D D Worse 0.5171502 23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 0.5171502 6 1987-1988 R D D Better 0.6023133 7 1989-1990 R D D Better 0.6023133 8 1991-1992 R D D Worse 0.6023133 16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.6023133 18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 0.8259281 19 2013-2014 D R D Worse 0.8259281 13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 0.8702899 * U6Indic being predicted: - Interactions included: FALSE Call: glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo) Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) 3.000e-15 1.414e+00 0.000 1.000 PartyPresidentR 4.021e+01 1.411e+04 0.003 0.998 PartyHouseR -2.070e+01 9.501e+03 -0.002 0.998 PartySenateR -2.020e+01 1.043e+04 -0.002 0.998 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 17.3232 on 12 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 6.5917 on 9 degrees of freedom AIC: 14.592 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 20 - Prediction results: p ~ 0.011621 Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat 11 1997-1998 D R R Better 2.220446e-16 12 1999-2000 D R R Better 2.220446e-16 20 2015-2016 D R R Better 2.220446e-16 18 2011-2012 D R D Better 1.018808e-09 19 2013-2014 D R D Better 1.018808e-09 14 2003-2004 R R R Worse 3.333333e-01 15 2005-2006 R R R Better 3.333333e-01 21 2017-2018 R R R Better 3.333333e-01 17 2009-2010 D D D Worse 5.000000e-01 23 2021-2022 D D D Better 5.000000e-01 13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 1.000000e+00 22 2019-2020 R D R Worse 1.000000e+00 16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 1.000000e+00 * VFINXIndic being predicted: - Interactions included: FALSE Call: glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo) Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) 0.6840 0.8919 0.767 0.443 PartyPresidentR 0.5552 1.0205 0.544 0.586 PartyHouseR 0.2286 1.0695 0.214 0.831 PartySenateR -0.9982 1.0626 -0.939 0.348 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 28.841 on 21 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 27.748 on 18 degrees of freedom AIC: 35.748 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 - Prediction results: p ~ 0.33309 Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat 10 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.4786013 11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.4786013 12 1999-2000 D R R Worse 0.4786013 20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 0.4786013 3 1981-1982 R D R Worse 0.5599451 4 1983-1984 R D R Worse 0.5599451 5 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.5599451 22 2019-2020 R D R Better 0.5599451 14 2003-2004 R R R Better 0.6152715 15 2005-2006 R R R Worse 0.6152715 21 2017-2018 R R R Worse 0.6152715 2 1979-1980 D D D Worse 0.6646331 9 1993-1994 D D D Worse 0.6646331 17 2009-2010 D D D Better 0.6646331 23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 0.6646331 18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 0.7135312 19 2013-2014 D R D Better 0.7135312 6 1987-1988 R D D Worse 0.7754218 7 1989-1990 R D D Worse 0.7754218 8 1991-1992 R D D Better 0.7754218 16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.7754218 13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 0.8127181 * VTSMXIndic being predicted: - Interactions included: FALSE Call: glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo) Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) 0.3897 1.0380 0.375 0.707 PartyPresidentR 0.8776 1.2240 0.717 0.473 PartyHouseR 0.8221 1.4226 0.578 0.563 PartySenateR -1.5447 1.4429 -1.071 0.284 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 20.190 on 14 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 18.695 on 11 degrees of freedom AIC: 26.695 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 - Prediction results: p ~ 0.337447 Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat 10 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.4175382 11 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.4175382 12 1999-2000 D R R Worse 0.4175382 20 2015-2016 D R R Worse 0.4175382 22 2019-2020 R D R Better 0.4311006 9 1993-1994 D D D Worse 0.5962057 17 2009-2010 D D D Better 0.5962057 23 2021-2022 D D D Worse 0.5962057 14 2003-2004 R R R Better 0.6329155 15 2005-2006 R R R Worse 0.6329155 21 2017-2018 R R R Worse 0.6329155 18 2011-2012 D R D Worse 0.7706150 19 2013-2014 D R D Better 0.7706150 16 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.7802823 13 2001-2002 R R D Worse 0.8898706 * Regression Akaike Information Criterion and Mann-Whitney rank p-values: DepVar AIC p 2 InflationIndic 27.79392 0.002820207 4 U6Indic 14.59167 0.011620980 3 LFPRIndic 33.68798 0.056965652 1 GDPIndic 34.22406 0.101754654 5 VFINXIndic 35.74819 0.333089723 6 VTSMXIndic 26.69536 0.337446932 * Parties vs Econ completed Sun Nov 03 10:37:56 2024 (1.4 sec elapsed).