* Parties vs Econ on Thu Dec 05 18:03:10 2024
- input data directory: .
- results directory: .
- transcript to: ./2024-12-05-parties-deficit.txt
Loading data:
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* Loading deficit data from ./2024-12-05-parties-deficit-FYFSD-1977-2023.csv
- Found 47 rows x 2 columns: DATE, FYFSD
- Consolidating to congressinal terms by adding
o Now have 23 rows x 4 columns: CongrTerm, Years, FYFSD, FYFSDIndic
* Loading deficit data as a % of GDP from ./2024-12-05-parties-deficit-FYFSGDA188S-1977-2023.csv
- Found 47 rows x 2 columns: DATE, FYFSGDA188S
- Consolidating to congressinal terms by adding
o Now have 23 rows x 4 columns: CongrTerm, Years, FYFSGDA188S, FYFSGDA188SIndic
* Loading previous party &c consolidated data from ./2024-10-28-parties-econ-consolidated.tsv
- Found 24 rows x 6 columns: CongrTerm, Years, President, PartyPresident, PartyHouse, PartySenate
- Joining datasets on congressinoal term
o Now have 23 rows x 10 columns: CongrTerm, Years, President, PartyPresident, PartyHouse, PartySenate, FYFSD, FYFSDIndic, FYFSGDA188S, FYFSGDA188SIndic
* Saved consolidated data to ./2024-12-05-parties-deficit-1977-2023-consolidated.tsv.
* FYFSDIndic being predicted:
Call:
glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo)
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) 0.396021 0.941318 0.421 0.6740
PartyPresidentR 2.577359 1.337714 1.927 0.0540 .
PartyHouseR -2.570177 1.475261 -1.742 0.0815 .
PartySenateR -0.009574 1.540517 -0.006 0.9950
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
Null deviance: 29.767 on 21 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 17.846 on 18 degrees of freedom
AIC: 25.846
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5
- Prediction results: p ~ 0.00449717
Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat
5 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.1012211
6 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.1012211
7 1999-2000 D R R Better 0.1012211
15 2015-2016 D R R Better 0.1012211
13 2011-2012 D R D Better 0.1020954
14 2013-2014 D R D Better 0.1020954
9 2003-2004 R R R Worse 0.5971560
10 2005-2006 R R R Better 0.5971560
16 2017-2018 R R R Worse 0.5971560
20 1979-1980 D D D Worse 0.5977312
4 1993-1994 D D D Better 0.5977312
12 2009-2010 D D D Worse 0.5977312
18 2021-2022 D D D Worse 0.5977312
8 2001-2002 R R D Worse 0.5994569
21 1981-1982 R D R Worse 0.9509119
22 1983-1984 R D R Worse 0.9509119
23 1985-1986 R D R Worse 0.9509119
17 2019-2020 R D R Worse 0.9509119
1 1987-1988 R D D Better 0.9513569
2 1989-1990 R D D Worse 0.9513569
3 1991-1992 R D D Worse 0.9513569
11 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.9513569
* FYFSGDA188SIndic being predicted:
Call:
glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo)
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) -2.01936 1.22494 -1.649 0.0992 .
PartyPresidentR 2.80601 1.28211 2.189 0.0286 *
PartyHouseR -0.33920 1.17607 -0.288 0.7730
PartySenateR 0.04027 1.16236 0.035 0.9724
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
Null deviance: 29.767 on 21 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 21.690 on 18 degrees of freedom
AIC: 29.69
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
- Prediction results: p ~ 0.0148857
Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat
13 2011-2012 D R D Better 0.08638853
14 2013-2014 D R D Better 0.08638853
5 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.08962004
6 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.08962004
7 1999-2000 D R R Better 0.08962004
15 2015-2016 D R R Better 0.08962004
20 1979-1980 D D D Better 0.11718570
4 1993-1994 D D D Better 0.11718570
12 2009-2010 D D D Worse 0.11718570
18 2021-2022 D D D Better 0.11718570
8 2001-2002 R R D Worse 0.61003387
9 2003-2004 R R R Worse 0.61956964
10 2005-2006 R R R Better 0.61956964
16 2017-2018 R R R Worse 0.61956964
1 1987-1988 R D D Better 0.68711157
2 1989-1990 R D D Worse 0.68711157
3 1991-1992 R D D Worse 0.68711157
11 2007-2008 R D D Better 0.68711157
21 1981-1982 R D R Worse 0.69570273
22 1983-1984 R D R Worse 0.69570273
23 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.69570273
17 2019-2020 R D R Worse 0.69570273
* Regression Akaike Information Criterion and Mann-Whitney rank p-values:
DepVar AIC p
1 FYFSDIndic 25.84600 0.004497165
2 FYFSGDA188SIndic 29.68985 0.014885746
* Parties vs Econ completed Thu Dec 05 18:03:10 2024 (0.1 sec elapsed).