* Parties vs Econ on Thu Dec 05 18:03:10 2024 - input data directory: . - results directory: . - transcript to: ./2024-12-05-parties-deficit.txt Loading data: ------------- * Loading deficit data from ./2024-12-05-parties-deficit-FYFSD-1977-2023.csv - Found 47 rows x 2 columns: DATE, FYFSD - Consolidating to congressinal terms by adding o Now have 23 rows x 4 columns: CongrTerm, Years, FYFSD, FYFSDIndic * Loading deficit data as a % of GDP from ./2024-12-05-parties-deficit-FYFSGDA188S-1977-2023.csv - Found 47 rows x 2 columns: DATE, FYFSGDA188S - Consolidating to congressinal terms by adding o Now have 23 rows x 4 columns: CongrTerm, Years, FYFSGDA188S, FYFSGDA188SIndic * Loading previous party &c consolidated data from ./2024-10-28-parties-econ-consolidated.tsv - Found 24 rows x 6 columns: CongrTerm, Years, President, PartyPresident, PartyHouse, PartySenate - Joining datasets on congressinoal term o Now have 23 rows x 10 columns: CongrTerm, Years, President, PartyPresident, PartyHouse, PartySenate, FYFSD, FYFSDIndic, FYFSGDA188S, FYFSGDA188SIndic * Saved consolidated data to ./2024-12-05-parties-deficit-1977-2023-consolidated.tsv. * FYFSDIndic being predicted: Call: glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo) Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) 0.396021 0.941318 0.421 0.6740 PartyPresidentR 2.577359 1.337714 1.927 0.0540 . PartyHouseR -2.570177 1.475261 -1.742 0.0815 . PartySenateR -0.009574 1.540517 -0.006 0.9950 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 29.767 on 21 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 17.846 on 18 degrees of freedom AIC: 25.846 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 - Prediction results: p ~ 0.00449717 Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat 5 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.1012211 6 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.1012211 7 1999-2000 D R R Better 0.1012211 15 2015-2016 D R R Better 0.1012211 13 2011-2012 D R D Better 0.1020954 14 2013-2014 D R D Better 0.1020954 9 2003-2004 R R R Worse 0.5971560 10 2005-2006 R R R Better 0.5971560 16 2017-2018 R R R Worse 0.5971560 20 1979-1980 D D D Worse 0.5977312 4 1993-1994 D D D Better 0.5977312 12 2009-2010 D D D Worse 0.5977312 18 2021-2022 D D D Worse 0.5977312 8 2001-2002 R R D Worse 0.5994569 21 1981-1982 R D R Worse 0.9509119 22 1983-1984 R D R Worse 0.9509119 23 1985-1986 R D R Worse 0.9509119 17 2019-2020 R D R Worse 0.9509119 1 1987-1988 R D D Better 0.9513569 2 1989-1990 R D D Worse 0.9513569 3 1991-1992 R D D Worse 0.9513569 11 2007-2008 R D D Worse 0.9513569 * FYFSGDA188SIndic being predicted: Call: glm(formula = formula, family = binomial(link = logit), data = foo) Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -2.01936 1.22494 -1.649 0.0992 . PartyPresidentR 2.80601 1.28211 2.189 0.0286 * PartyHouseR -0.33920 1.17607 -0.288 0.7730 PartySenateR 0.04027 1.16236 0.035 0.9724 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance: 29.767 on 21 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 21.690 on 18 degrees of freedom AIC: 29.69 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 - Prediction results: p ~ 0.0148857 Years PartyPresident PartyHouse PartySenate DepVar pHat 13 2011-2012 D R D Better 0.08638853 14 2013-2014 D R D Better 0.08638853 5 1995-1996 D R R Better 0.08962004 6 1997-1998 D R R Better 0.08962004 7 1999-2000 D R R Better 0.08962004 15 2015-2016 D R R Better 0.08962004 20 1979-1980 D D D Better 0.11718570 4 1993-1994 D D D Better 0.11718570 12 2009-2010 D D D Worse 0.11718570 18 2021-2022 D D D Better 0.11718570 8 2001-2002 R R D Worse 0.61003387 9 2003-2004 R R R Worse 0.61956964 10 2005-2006 R R R Better 0.61956964 16 2017-2018 R R R Worse 0.61956964 1 1987-1988 R D D Better 0.68711157 2 1989-1990 R D D Worse 0.68711157 3 1991-1992 R D D Worse 0.68711157 11 2007-2008 R D D Better 0.68711157 21 1981-1982 R D R Worse 0.69570273 22 1983-1984 R D R Worse 0.69570273 23 1985-1986 R D R Better 0.69570273 17 2019-2020 R D R Worse 0.69570273 * Regression Akaike Information Criterion and Mann-Whitney rank p-values: DepVar AIC p 1 FYFSDIndic 25.84600 0.004497165 2 FYFSGDA188SIndic 29.68985 0.014885746 * Parties vs Econ completed Thu Dec 05 18:03:10 2024 (0.1 sec elapsed).