* Stock Market Streaks on Wed Jan 01 20:24:48 2025
  - input data directory: .
  - results directory:    .
  - transcript to:        ./2025-01-01-stock-market-streaks.txt

Loading data:
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* Loading VTI daily price time series from ./2025-01-01-stock-market-streaks-vti-price-history.tsv.
  - Date range: 2001-06-18 - 2024-12-30.
  - We thus have 5921 trading days for which the day change is computable.

Estimating probability of 1-day rise:
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* Estimating probability stock market rises on any single day
  - Naive estimate: of our 5921 trading days, the rise (true)/fall (false) days were:
FALSE  TRUE 
 2695  3226 
  - Naive probability stock market rises on a given day p = 54.48%
  - Bayesian posterior Beta estimate (95% credibility interval): p = 54.48% (53.21% - 55.75%)
  - Density plot to ./2025-01-01-stock-market-streaks-posterior-beta.png

Characterizing streaks:
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* Analyzing streaks with run-length encoding
  - For down streaks (plot to ./2025-01-01-stock-market-streaks-barplots-down.png):
  1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8 
830 375 181  73  28  16   4   2 

  - For up streaks (plot to ./2025-01-01-stock-market-streaks-barplots-up.png):
  1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  11 
699 368 205 117  55  34  17   9   3   1 

* For 5921 trading days, probability of decline of 45.52%, run length = 8 days:
  - The probability is 0.997493.

* Stock Market Streaks completed Wed Jan 01 20:24:48 2025 (0.1 sec elapsed).