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Tagged: About

Tags applied to posts & pages so far: ϜΤΦ, About, ArtificialIntelligence, Beauty, CatBlogging, CorporateLifeAndItsDiscontents, COVID, Food, Investing, JournalClub, Math, MathInTheNews, MeaCulpa, NotableAndQuotable, Obscurantism, PharmaAndBiotech, Physics, Politics, PoliticsTheDivineMadness, R, Religion, Retirement, Sadness, SomebodyAskedMe, Statistics, TheDivineMadness

ϜΤΦ:

Fri 2024-Dec-06: Gruß von Krampus!
It’s that special time of year again… Krampusnacht!
Wed 2024-Nov-06: Trump Redux
So… Trump again. Honestly, I don’t know how we survive this. Survive as a planetary civilization, survive as democracies, or even how I survive personally. I just don’t know how to gather the energy to live through this.
Fri 2024-Nov-01: An AI-Generated Podcast About This CLBTNR?!
Google has done a very silly thing: feed them some information, and they’ll make a podcast with 2 AI hosts ‘discussing’ it. We fed them this Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR). The results are… amusing?
Sat 2024-Oct-05: Ogham in Harvard Square
A couple days ago, I saw something weird in Harvard Square. Nothing weird about that, right?
Mon 2024-Sep-23: Best Political Ad Ever!
I just saw The Best Political Ad Ever. Most of them are terrible, but this one is warm, artful, and competent.
Tue 2024-Sep-10: The Harris/Trump Debate
Somebody asked me what I thought would happen at the debate tonight. Not gonna watch it.
Mon 2024-Aug-26: The Return of the Lawnmower Battery Surgeon
A couple years having passed since the last cell transplant, our lawnmower is once again in need of battery surgery.
Wed 2024-Aug-21: Harris at the Democratic National Convention
So, Harris at the convention… I wonder how that’s going?
Thu 2024-Jul-18: More Anti-Surveillance Fashion
The cameras, facial recognition, and snoopy cops without warrants haven’t gone away. Need new clothes for some reason?
Mon 2024-Jul-08: You Can Buy WHAT from a Vending Machine in the US?!
In Japan, you can buy almost anything from a vending machine. Recently, here in the US, we’ve made horrible progress on that front.
Tue 2024-May-14: Right-to-Repair Madness
Sometimes, the “right to repair” can be taken to levels best described as pure madness.
Thu 2024-May-02: DNS: An Improbable Medium for Humor
We members of the Nerd Tribe like our little jokes. The more obscure, requiring loads of intellectual context, the better. The DNS system is taking this one step further.
Thu 2024-Mar-14: Pi Day 2024
So… it’s Pi Day. Again. Didn’t we do this last year?
Thu 2024-Feb-29: A Better Leap Year
So, it’s Leap Year Day. Is the Gregorian calendar we use in any sense optimal?
Tue 2023-Oct-10: Anti-Surveillance Fashion Tips
Tired of all the mass surveillance in our late capitalism culutre? Maybe it’s your fashion sense.
Wed 2023-Jul-19: Republicans: Mt Rushmore Is A 'Demonic Portal for Communism'
I am slowly learning never to ask how low Republicans can go in the US.
Tue 2023-Jun-20: Personal Data Collection & Cookie Policies
This Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR) now has official personal data collection and cookie policies. You only think you don’t care about that.
Fri 2023-Jun-16: Bloomsday!
Today is Bloomsday. Umm… what?
Wed 2023-Jun-14: On using ChatGPT for Peer Review
Somebody submitted a paper to a journal. The journal sent it out for peer review. A reviewer, skimping on their job, used ChatGPT to write the review. This went about as well as you probably think.
Tue 2023-Jun-06: On Forgiving Witchcraft… Slooowly
Does anybody else wonder what’s going on in the heads of legislators who are “outlier” votes? Like, when a vote is 33-1, what’s that one guy thinking? Principled holdout, or just stubborn? (Or maybe not very bright?)
Wed 2023-May-10: On Dress Standards
You know how world political, business, and financial leaders fetishize suits for men? Physicists do not do that.
Sat 2023-Mar-25: ChatGPT and Francophone Misbranding
Somebody asked me about the naming of ChatGPT. (Content warning: Remarkably stupid joke, totally skippable by Very Serious People.)
Tue 2023-Mar-14: Pi Day 2023
Today is Pi Day (3/14) in 2023. Sort of.
Sun 2023-Jan-01: L'état du blog: 2022
Another calendar year down; also another annus horribilis. Let’s review what happened in this Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR), and studiously avoid the more daunting task of reviewing 2022.
Mon 2022-Dec-05: Two Trolley Problems
Today I found 2 interesting takes on the Trolley Problem.
Sun 2022-Nov-27: Japan at the 2022 World Cup: A Classy Act
Apparently there has been some unusual fan conduct at the World Cup?
Wed 2022-Nov-02: Two Things I Don't Understand
Sometimes there’s nothing to do but confess one’s own ignorance.
Mon 2022-Sep-19: International Talk Like A Pirate Day, 2022
Today, September 19, is International Talk Like a Pirate Day!
Fri 2022-Jun-24: My Brief But Spectacular Career as a Lawnmower Battery Surgeon
My lawnmower needed a new battery, but they’re no longer made. So I made one of my own.
Wed 2022-Jun-22: Remastered Film: Paris in the 1920s
Ever wonder how the past really looked? Not the jerky, off-speed, black & white silent stuff, but as if you were really there? Some video restorers are trying to recreate those experiences.
Fri 2022-Jun-17: Three Philosophers Walk Into a Bar
So Nietzsche, Machiavelli, and Dr. Seuss walk into a bar.
Sat 2022-May-28: The Outer Limits of Chocolate Art
Have you ever eaten a giraffe?
Thu 2022-May-19: How to Waste Russian Government Time
I can’t say I entirely approve of this. But I do understand the desire to inconvenience the Russian government given the Ukraine invasion, and the humor involved in the chosen method.
Fri 2022-May-13: But What's in Your Heart?!
A plaintive cry I hear with regrettable frequency from non-science/non-math types is that we are all heartless. “But what’s really in your heart?!” they whine. Today, I’ll show you.
Wed 2022-May-11: Which Arm Gets the Booster?
A burning question for everybody who’s gotten a booster, or wants one: the same arm, or the other arm?
Sat 2022-Apr-16: The Perks of a PhD in Finland
Today I found out that I missed out a bit by getting my PhD anywhere but Finland.
Thu 2022-Apr-14: Passover & Late-Stage Capitalism
So, it’s Passover. What might late-stage capitalism have to say about that?
Sat 2022-Mar-26: Headshot
Somebody asked me to put a headshot up on this crummy little blog that nobody reads (CLBTNR). No idea why, but…
Mon 2022-Mar-14: Reflection on Pi Day
Today is Pi Day (3/14), so we reflect upon π.
Fri 2022-Mar-11: XKCD: Qua
XKCD qua XKCD is just XKCD. Latin does things to your mind.
Tue 2022-Feb-15: Sustaining Spirit in Hard Times: People are Complicated
Times are difficult, here in the 3rd year of a global pandemic that drags on and on, because people just cannot grasp the importance of public health measures and vaccination. Anything that sustains our spirit and our belief in a good core of human nature is important. So why am I looking at dog statues on bridges in Prague?
Fri 2022-Jan-07: Tech Skepticism
It’s fashionable lately to be skeptical about technology. (Of everything, really.) Sometimes we don’t realize how deep are the roots of suspicion of innovation, and (usually) how wrong.
Sun 2022-Jan-02: Boston First Night: Best Ice Sculpture
Against best pandemic advice, First Night happened again in Boston. Wanna see a highlight?
Sat 2022-Jan-01: L'état du blog: 2021
A full calendar year of blogging has passed. So, thankfully, has the annus horribilis 2021CE. How did we come out? (The blog, that is. 2021 itself is still too traumatizing to discuss.)
Wed 2021-Dec-29: In Celebration of Mid-Winter Beauty
Winter is just objectively the best time of year. Do not attempt to correct me on this matter.
Sun 2021-Dec-05: Avoding Vaccination With More Creativity Than Common Sense
Remember last month, when we had the story about people in Greece bribing doctors for fake vaccines, and doctors taking the money but giving real vaccines? Even though that story has some believability challenges, it’s no longer the weirdest vaccine story I’ve heard. Move over, Greece: the Italians are on the job. (And where are the French surrealists, anyway?)
Mon 2021-Nov-08: Three Lessons from COVID
COVID-19 has taught us some lessons about (a) how mind-numbingly stupid and corrupt we can be, and (b) some forms of corruption that are so confusing that I can’t tell if they are the divine madness or instead just &Gammad;ΤΦ.
Wed 2021-Oct-20: State of the Blog at 1 Year
This crummy little blog that nobody reads has been around for a little more than a year. It’s time to look at the numbers and see how we’ve been doing.
Tue 2021-Oct-05: The Man Who Wins New England Autumn
Today I learned of a hero, engaged in a Great Work that is clearly a service to all humanity. Oh, and there were donuts, too.
Sat 2021-Sep-25: Work Nightmares: A Fantasy of Fairness
Yes, discontent with the corporate system and rule by managers is a thing. As are the associated nightmares, and the corresponding fantasies of justice.
Thu 2021-Sep-16: Some days I feel like this dog
Problem-solving skills are important.
Mon 2021-Sep-06: Rosh Hashanah: A Chance to Start Over on Labor Day
Today is Labor Day in the US. It’s also Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year. What can we make of that coincidence, even without being Jewish?
Mon 2021-Jul-12: Really, Republicans?
[Warning: US-centric, lefty political rant. If you’re from outside the US and want to laugh at us… well, fair enough: we’ve earned it.] I mean… really, Republicans? Do you seriously want to put up with politicians like this? For what possible reason? Why would you even want to be in the same party as people like this?
Mon 2021-May-10: Dracula and the vaccine
Romania has one of the highest vaccine hesitancy rates in Europe, around 50%. They’re starting to get… creative.
Fri 2021-Apr-30: CORVID 19
In Latin, “corvus” means crow. So the adjectival form used in biology for birds-such-as-crows is “corvid”. Sometimes people get confused in interesting ways.
Thu 2021-Apr-01: April foolishness
Today is April Fool’s Day. Attrapons le poisson d’avril!
Thu 2021-Mar-25: Free Bird
Let’s think about something other than COVID. Not Lynyrd Skynyrd’s “Free Bird”, awesome as that is, but an actual free bird consorting with flying humans.
Mon 2021-Mar-22: The pandemic year in retrospect
Time for perspective: we’ve been stuck in a pandemic for a year now. What’s the best summary of your experience?
Sun 2021-Mar-14: Pi Day: Are you still using decimal notation?!
Today is Pi Day (3/14). You’re not still using decimal, are you?
Mon 2021-Jan-25: Today this blog got its first spam
Honestly, what sort of idiot tries to sell fake Viagra on an obscure, crummy little blog like this? And on an old post at that?! (Please don’t answer those rhetorical questions, especially if you actually know the answers.)
Wed 2020-Dec-30: Serious adverse event frequency: about like getting struck by lightning?
Explaining to COVID vaccine clinical trial participants that the probability of a certain serious adverse event is 1/50,000 or less doesn’t work. Most people instantly stop listening at the slightest whiff of mathematics, including ordinary numbers. But if you compare it to being struck by lightning, that makes sense to most people. Can you guess what happened next?
Tue 2020-Dec-29: Santa and the cops
Here at Chez Weekend, there’s a rumor circulating that on Christmas Eve, Santa got pulled over by the cops?!
Mon 2020-Dec-14: My cat is a fin-de-siècle French night club cat?!
Apparently the Weekend Publisher, occasionally also known as “my cat”, is the reincarnation of the spirit animal of a fin-de-siècle cabaret in Paris.
Sat 2020-Oct-24: At autumn in New England, thoughts turn to...
At autumn in New England, thoughts turn to the extreme beauty of nature, the weather turning more comfortably cooler & drier, cinnamon and nutmeg smells everywhere, and… trebuchets, catapaults, air cannons, and other implements of imparting to pumpkins various levels of sub-orbital trajectories.
Fri 2020-Aug-07: What's that stupid avatar?
Somebody asked me, “What’s that stupid avatar on your blog?” It’s a reminder that even simple questions show infinite complexity if you look closely enough. And sometimes even if you don’t!
Thu 2020-Jul-02: The Retirement of Iphegenia
Somebody asked me, “What’s your retirement plan?”

About:

Fri 2024-Nov-15: No Twitter No More
No Twitter. No more.
Fri 2024-Nov-01: An AI-Generated Podcast About This CLBTNR?!
Google has done a very silly thing: feed them some information, and they’ll make a podcast with 2 AI hosts ‘discussing’ it. We fed them this Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR). The results are… amusing?
Sat 2024-Apr-06: Career Paths Not Taken
Somebody asked me about Sabine Hossenfelder’s recently published thoughts on the difficulties of academic physics as a career. Yup, she’s right on point!
Tue 2024-Mar-19: Thoughts On Surgery
Yesterday I had some surgery. Today, after (mostly) processing the drugs, it’s time to take stock of the experience.
Wed 2024-Feb-14: Not Dead Yet
Somebody asked me if I’m dead, given the lack of posts here for 4 months. It’s not prima facie an unreasonable question.
Sat 2023-Sep-30: Long Time, No Blog?
So… long time, no blog, eh?
Sun 2023-Jan-01: L'état du blog: 2022
Another calendar year down; also another annus horribilis. Let’s review what happened in this Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR), and studiously avoid the more daunting task of reviewing 2022.
Mon 2022-Nov-28: Blog Comments Temporarily Disabled
Comments on this Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR) are temporarily disabled, due to Heroku lossge.
Sat 2022-Nov-19: De-twitter-fying This Blog
It seems Twitter is dying. Time to armor plate this blog so quote tweets survive.
Fri 2022-Jul-01: Retirement: 2 Years In, And …
It seems I’ve been retired for 2 years now. What can 2 years of perspective tell us?
Fri 2022-May-13: But What's in Your Heart?!
A plaintive cry I hear with regrettable frequency from non-science/non-math types is that we are all heartless. “But what’s really in your heart?!” they whine. Today, I’ll show you.
Sat 2022-Mar-26: Headshot
Somebody asked me to put a headshot up on this crummy little blog that nobody reads (CLBTNR). No idea why, but…
Sat 2022-Jan-01: L'état du blog: 2021
A full calendar year of blogging has passed. So, thankfully, has the annus horribilis 2021CE. How did we come out? (The blog, that is. 2021 itself is still too traumatizing to discuss.)
Wed 2021-Oct-20: State of the Blog at 1 Year
This crummy little blog that nobody reads has been around for a little more than a year. It’s time to look at the numbers and see how we’ve been doing.
Mon 2021-May-03: Reviewing Google Translate for These Blog Posts
A few weeks ago, we hooked up Google Translate for this blog. It’s time to review how well it’s been working… or not.
Mon 2021-Jan-25: Today this blog got its first spam
Honestly, what sort of idiot tries to sell fake Viagra on an obscure, crummy little blog like this? And on an old post at that?! (Please don’t answer those rhetorical questions, especially if you actually know the answers.)
Fri 2020-Aug-07: What's that stupid avatar?
Somebody asked me, “What’s that stupid avatar on your blog?” It’s a reminder that even simple questions show infinite complexity if you look closely enough. And sometimes even if you don’t!
Mon 2020-Jul-20: Math test post
Just seeing if I can make the math typesetting work. Nothing to see here, kid… move along.
Wed 2020-Jul-01: Fiat blog.
So… yet another blog? Really?!

ArtificialIntelligence:

Fri 2024-Nov-01: An AI-Generated Podcast About This CLBTNR?!
Google has done a very silly thing: feed them some information, and they’ll make a podcast with 2 AI hosts ‘discussing’ it. We fed them this Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR). The results are… amusing?
Thu 2024-Jul-18: More Anti-Surveillance Fashion
The cameras, facial recognition, and snoopy cops without warrants haven’t gone away. Need new clothes for some reason?
Sat 2024-Jun-22: AI Large Lanuage Models: Still a BS Firehose
Somebody asked me, in the course of a family video call, what I thought about the latest AI Large Language Models (LLMs) and how they’re being used for everything. Have they improved from their previous BS conditions? Ahem. Uh… no.
Wed 2024-Mar-27: On Detecting Academic Papers with AI-Written Content
AI-written content is beginning to pollute everything, now including the academic literature. Can it be detected? For now, yes; long term, probably not.
Tue 2023-Oct-10: Anti-Surveillance Fashion Tips
Tired of all the mass surveillance in our late capitalism culutre? Maybe it’s your fashion sense.
Wed 2023-Jun-14: On using ChatGPT for Peer Review
Somebody submitted a paper to a journal. The journal sent it out for peer review. A reviewer, skimping on their job, used ChatGPT to write the review. This went about as well as you probably think.
Sat 2023-Mar-25: ChatGPT and Francophone Misbranding
Somebody asked me about the naming of ChatGPT. (Content warning: Remarkably stupid joke, totally skippable by Very Serious People.)
Wed 2023-Feb-15: On ChatGPT and Its Ilk
Somebody just summarized for me the exact nature of ChatGPT.

Beauty:

Mon 2024-Sep-23: Best Political Ad Ever!
I just saw The Best Political Ad Ever. Most of them are terrible, but this one is warm, artful, and competent.
Fri 2024-Aug-23: The Weekend Hydrangea Team
Remember the Weekend Hydrangea Team? Let’s check in on them, and see how they’re doing.
Thu 2024-Jul-18: More Anti-Surveillance Fashion
The cameras, facial recognition, and snoopy cops without warrants haven’t gone away. Need new clothes for some reason?
Thu 2024-Jul-04: 2024-July-04
So… the 4th of July, here in the US?
Mon 2024-May-27: Memorial Day 2024
Apparently, it’s Memorial Day in the US. Again. Seems like this happens every year, or something. Here at Château Weekend, we still have ambivalent feelings about it (as is the custom of our tribe).
Sun 2024-May-19: The Spectrum Singers: Farewell to Music Director John Ehrlich
Saturday, we went to a concert by the Spectrum Singers in Cambridge, at the historic First Church Congregational. I was a little apprehensive about Schoenberg and Ives, but looked forward to the Vaughan Williams.
Mon 2024-May-13: Anno MMXXIV Aurorae Borealium
A major solar coronal mass ejection has resulted in generational-sized geomagnetic storms on Earth. Also, glow-thingies in the sky.
Thu 2024-May-02: DNS: An Improbable Medium for Humor
We members of the Nerd Tribe like our little jokes. The more obscure, requiring loads of intellectual context, the better. The DNS system is taking this one step further.
Mon 2024-Apr-08: A Bostonian Pinhole Projection of the Eclipse
So, did I hear there was an eclipse today?
Wed 2024-Apr-03: A Sacred Moment
Today I experienced a sacred moment. Do you want to know more (homage à John Varley’s “Press Enter”)?
Tue 2024-Mar-19: Thoughts On Surgery
Yesterday I had some surgery. Today, after (mostly) processing the drugs, it’s time to take stock of the experience.
Thu 2024-Feb-29: A Better Leap Year
So, it’s Leap Year Day. Is the Gregorian calendar we use in any sense optimal?
Tue 2023-Oct-10: Anti-Surveillance Fashion Tips
Tired of all the mass surveillance in our late capitalism culutre? Maybe it’s your fashion sense.
Sat 2023-Sep-30: Long Time, No Blog?
So… long time, no blog, eh?
Sun 2023-Jun-18: Father's Day 2023
So, in the US today it’s Father’s Day.
Fri 2023-Jun-16: Bloomsday!
Today is Bloomsday. Umm… what?
Tue 2023-Jun-13: Arraignment Day 2023
Today in the US, we again experimented with a new national commemorative holiday: Arraignment Day for Donald Trump.
Sat 2023-Jun-10: Thinking While at the Symphony
Two nights ago, I was at Symphony Hall in Boston waiting for the Boston Pops to perform, when I saw that Trump was indicted. Clearly a big subject to wait for the next day, hence yesterday’s blog post. With that good news out of the way, let’s talk about what it’s like to go back to the symphony after years at home.
Fri 2023-Jun-09: Indictment Day 2023
Yesterday in the US, we experimented with a possible new national commemorative holiday: Indictment Day for Donald Trump.
Mon 2023-May-29: Memorial Day 2023
Apparently, here in the US it’s Memorial Day again. What should we think about that? Well… a lot!
Wed 2023-May-10: On Dress Standards
You know how world political, business, and financial leaders fetishize suits for men? Physicists do not do that.
Tue 2023-Mar-28: Progress in Dark Times
Times are dark, but sometimes there are glimmers of progress.
Thu 2023-Mar-16: Schwarzenegger Reminds Us (Again) To Do Better
Arnold Schwarzenegger keeps making sense, even when nobody else does.
Tue 2023-Mar-14: Pi Day 2023
Today is Pi Day (3/14) in 2023. Sort of.
Tue 2023-Feb-07: Tripitaka Koreana
Today I learned about the Tripitaka Koreana: likely the most successful large data transfer over time in human history.
Fri 2022-Oct-07: Greetings from Japan
We finally got to return to Japan to visit the Weekend Editrix’s mother!
Wed 2022-Jun-22: Remastered Film: Paris in the 1920s
Ever wonder how the past really looked? Not the jerky, off-speed, black & white silent stuff, but as if you were really there? Some video restorers are trying to recreate those experiences.
Mon 2022-May-30: Memorial Day 2022
So, here in the US it’s Memorial Day. Again.
Sat 2022-May-28: The Outer Limits of Chocolate Art
Have you ever eaten a giraffe?
Sun 2022-May-22: Hank Green, John Green, and the Great Asymmetry
Videos by “vlogbrothers” Hank & John Green on the despair of the times led me to a WH Auden poem and an essay by Stephen Jay Gould on the ease of destruction vs the triviality of destruction. Also, a quick stop to visit Virgil (not via Inferno). Few can build; anybody can burn.
Fri 2022-May-13: But What's in Your Heart?!
A plaintive cry I hear with regrettable frequency from non-science/non-math types is that we are all heartless. “But what’s really in your heart?!” they whine. Today, I’ll show you.
Sat 2022-Apr-16: The Perks of a PhD in Finland
Today I found out that I missed out a bit by getting my PhD anywhere but Finland.
Sat 2022-Mar-26: Headshot
Somebody asked me to put a headshot up on this crummy little blog that nobody reads (CLBTNR). No idea why, but…
Sat 2022-Mar-19: Some Unexpected Inspiration on Russia & Ukraine
Today I came across an unexpected source of encouragement in the matter of Russia and Ukraine.
Mon 2022-Mar-14: Reflection on Pi Day
Today is Pi Day (3/14), so we reflect upon π.
Sat 2022-Mar-12: First Return to the BSO in Years
Yesterday we went to the Boston Symphony Orchestra for the first time in, obviously, years.
Fri 2022-Mar-11: XKCD: Qua
XKCD qua XKCD is just XKCD. Latin does things to your mind.
Wed 2022-Feb-23: Pessimism and Optimism
Somebody asked me why I’m always so dour. Well, times are hard: pandemic waves, disinformation & death, potential nuclear war over Ukraine, the rise of the fascist right, climate change not only unchecked but furiously denied, and so on. So let’s take some inventory of our problems… and maybe a few points that (may) cause hope for the future.
Tue 2022-Feb-15: Sustaining Spirit in Hard Times: People are Complicated
Times are difficult, here in the 3rd year of a global pandemic that drags on and on, because people just cannot grasp the importance of public health measures and vaccination. Anything that sustains our spirit and our belief in a good core of human nature is important. So why am I looking at dog statues on bridges in Prague?
Mon 2022-Jan-17: MLK Day 2022
Today in the US is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, when we honor the civil rights advocate who pushed for rights for racial minorities and the poor, for which he was assassinated. How best should that honor be expressed?
Fri 2022-Jan-07: Tech Skepticism
It’s fashionable lately to be skeptical about technology. (Of everything, really.) Sometimes we don’t realize how deep are the roots of suspicion of innovation, and (usually) how wrong.
Sun 2022-Jan-02: Boston First Night: Best Ice Sculpture
Against best pandemic advice, First Night happened again in Boston. Wanna see a highlight?
Wed 2021-Dec-29: In Celebration of Mid-Winter Beauty
Winter is just objectively the best time of year. Do not attempt to correct me on this matter.
Wed 2021-Dec-15: Tis the Season… of the Analemma
It’s that season again: the time of nerdly meditations on the analemma. The shortest day of the year, Dec 21, is yet to come. But for night owls, the day of earliest sunset (at the latitude of Château Weekend) was Dec 8th. How can that be? That’s the tale of the analemma!
Tue 2021-Oct-05: The Man Who Wins New England Autumn
Today I learned of a hero, engaged in a Great Work that is clearly a service to all humanity. Oh, and there were donuts, too.
Sat 2021-Sep-11: On war memorials
Today marks 2 decades since the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in NYC, the Pentagon in DC, and a third target that was spared because airline passengers forced a crash in Shanksville, PA. It also marks, with the recent US withdrawal from Afghanistan, at least a winding down, though possibly not a complete ending, of 20 years of war. It’s time to think about war memorials… sort of.
Thu 2021-Mar-25: Free Bird
Let’s think about something other than COVID. Not Lynyrd Skynyrd’s “Free Bird”, awesome as that is, but an actual free bird consorting with flying humans.
Mon 2020-Dec-21: Winter solstice, Dodds's Day, and the Weekend Editrix's Day
Today is the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year in the northern hemisphere. It is not, however, the day of earliest sunset (of interest to night owls). Nor is it the day of latest sunrise (of interest to morning… people). Therein lies the tale of the analemma, first told to me long ago by a marvelous former colleague, Doug Dodds.
Sat 2020-Oct-24: At autumn in New England, thoughts turn to...
At autumn in New England, thoughts turn to the extreme beauty of nature, the weather turning more comfortably cooler & drier, cinnamon and nutmeg smells everywhere, and… trebuchets, catapaults, air cannons, and other implements of imparting to pumpkins various levels of sub-orbital trajectories.

CatBlogging:

Sat 2024-Dec-14: Against Lotteries
Years ago, somebody asked me (an office mate, actually) about lottery tickets when the return was positive. Generally, lottery tickets are meant to lose money for you on average. So speaking only of money, you shouldn’t buy them. But once in a long while, they have a positive expected return. Should you buy one of those? Still no.
Thu 2024-Nov-07: On Certainty as Cognitive Injury
People who are absolutely certain about something kind of scare me.
Wed 2024-Oct-16: Today I Got Shot… Again!
Today I got shot… i.e., vaccinated against COVID-19… again.
Thu 2024-Oct-10: This Week I Voted
This week I voted in the 2024 election.
Fri 2024-Sep-06: Elections, Fairness Gaps, and Age Gaps
The US is undemocratic in a variety of ways, favoring older voters and very old politicians among them. That might be about to change.
Mon 2024-Aug-26: The Return of the Lawnmower Battery Surgeon
A couple years having passed since the last cell transplant, our lawnmower is once again in need of battery surgery.
Fri 2024-Aug-23: The Weekend Hydrangea Team
Remember the Weekend Hydrangea Team? Let’s check in on them, and see how they’re doing.
Wed 2024-Aug-21: Harris at the Democratic National Convention
So, Harris at the convention… I wonder how that’s going?
Mon 2024-Aug-12: US Voters: Check Your Registration for Republican Mischief!
Republican voter suppression and other electoral mischief is already starting. It’s time now to check your registration, and keep checking it until November.
Mon 2024-Aug-05: The Innumeracy of the Rulers
Have you ever wondered just how mathematically illiterate our rulers really are? Buckle up, Buttercup: it’s worse than you think.
Sat 2024-Jun-22: AI Large Lanuage Models: Still a BS Firehose
Somebody asked me, in the course of a family video call, what I thought about the latest AI Large Language Models (LLMs) and how they’re being used for everything. Have they improved from their previous BS conditions? Ahem. Uh… no.
Tue 2024-May-07: On Taxing the Rich
It’s easy for the rich to avoid taxation in the US – it appears that the 400 richest Americans now have an effective tax rate below that of the bottom half of income earners. How unusual is this?
Wed 2024-Mar-27: On Detecting Academic Papers with AI-Written Content
AI-written content is beginning to pollute everything, now including the academic literature. Can it be detected? For now, yes; long term, probably not.
Tue 2024-Mar-19: Thoughts On Surgery
Yesterday I had some surgery. Today, after (mostly) processing the drugs, it’s time to take stock of the experience.
Tue 2024-Mar-12: Happily Getting Yet Another COVID-19 Booster
Yesterday I got my 8th COVID-19 booster. It was ok!
Wed 2024-Feb-28: US CDC ACIP Meeting: COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Today the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) met, to decide recommendations on COVID-19 vaccines for 2024. Let’s go see what went down.
Wed 2024-Feb-14: Not Dead Yet
Somebody asked me if I’m dead, given the lack of posts here for 4 months. It’s not prima facie an unreasonable question.
Sat 2023-Sep-30: Long Time, No Blog?
So… long time, no blog, eh?
Wed 2023-Jul-19: Republicans: Mt Rushmore Is A 'Demonic Portal for Communism'
I am slowly learning never to ask how low Republicans can go in the US.
Tue 2023-Jun-20: Personal Data Collection & Cookie Policies
This Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR) now has official personal data collection and cookie policies. You only think you don’t care about that.
Sun 2023-Jun-18: Father's Day 2023
So, in the US today it’s Father’s Day.
Mon 2023-Jun-12: US Executive Branch Criminal Indictments, Broken Down by Party
Do Democratic or Republican presidencies in the US result in more executive branch criminal indictments per year in office? We all think we know, but let’s consult the data.
Mon 2023-May-15: Post-COVID-19 Brain Fog: A Portrait in Data
Somebody asked me whether all my whining about post-COVID-19 brain fog was real. Yes, it is.
Thu 2023-Apr-20: Today I Got Shot Yet Again: A 6th COVID-19 Vaccination
Today I got my 6th COVID-19 vaccination. Here’s why, in case you’re interested.
Sat 2023-Mar-25: ChatGPT and Francophone Misbranding
Somebody asked me about the naming of ChatGPT. (Content warning: Remarkably stupid joke, totally skippable by Very Serious People.)
Sat 2022-Sep-10: On Timing the Next Bivalent Booster for Omicron COVID-19
Somebody asked me when we’d be getting the new bivalent COVID-19 boosters. (Not if but when.) Since we’ve both recently had COVID-19, that requires a bit of a think.
Tue 2022-Jul-12: Is COVID-19 Omicron/BA.4-5 the Most Infectious Viral Disease in Human History?
Somebody asked me about how seriously we should take the COVID-19 Omicron/BA.4-5 variants, given that so many people are “done with COVID” and refuse to mask. Response: basically, we should take it very seriously; people without masks are being very silly. Silly in a deadly fashion, irresponsible to the health of the rest of us. To answer the titular question: yes, unfortunately, it appears so.
Fri 2022-Jul-01: Retirement: 2 Years In, And …
It seems I’ve been retired for 2 years now. What can 2 years of perspective tell us?
Fri 2022-Jun-24: My Brief But Spectacular Career as a Lawnmower Battery Surgeon
My lawnmower needed a new battery, but they’re no longer made. So I made one of my own.
Fri 2022-Jun-17: Three Philosophers Walk Into a Bar
So Nietzsche, Machiavelli, and Dr. Seuss walk into a bar.
Sun 2022-Jun-12: On the Lifetime of Conspiracies
The world is full of conspiracy theories, more than I recall ever being the case in the past, before social media. How reasonable is it to expect that a conspiracy can (a) depend on secrecy, (b) involve a large number of people, and (c) survive for more than a couple years? Not very, according to a probabilistic model!
Fri 2022-May-13: But What's in Your Heart?!
A plaintive cry I hear with regrettable frequency from non-science/non-math types is that we are all heartless. “But what’s really in your heart?!” they whine. Today, I’ll show you.
Sat 2022-Mar-26: Headshot
Somebody asked me to put a headshot up on this crummy little blog that nobody reads (CLBTNR). No idea why, but…
Wed 2022-Jan-26: Pan-Coronavirus Vaccines
Last October, we noted that NIAID had granted $36 million for the development of a pan-coronavirus vaccine. Time for an report: how’s that working out?
Tue 2022-Jan-11: Finding paxlovid
Paxlovid is a remarkable early therapeutic for people who’ve caught COVID-19. But… it’s very scarce for the next few months, ironically during the Omicron wave. Where can you score some paxlovid?!
Wed 2021-Dec-29: In Celebration of Mid-Winter Beauty
Winter is just objectively the best time of year. Do not attempt to correct me on this matter.
Wed 2021-Oct-27: Today the Weekend Editrix got shot (for the 6th time!)
Today the Weekend Editrix got shot, also for the sixth time this year! It was pretty good.
Mon 2021-Sep-13: On the ratio of Beta-distributed random variables
[Warning: Post contains full frontal nerdity. Bug reports appreciated!] I finally got a copy of Pham-Gia’s paper on the distribution of the ratio of 2 independent Beta-distributed random variables. While I still have some childhood trauma around hypergeometric functions like ${}_{2}F_{1}()$ and its even scarier big brother ${}_{3}F_{2}()$… it’s time to face my fears.
Mon 2021-Jan-25: Today this blog got its first spam
Honestly, what sort of idiot tries to sell fake Viagra on an obscure, crummy little blog like this? And on an old post at that?! (Please don’t answer those rhetorical questions, especially if you actually know the answers.)
Tue 2020-Dec-29: Santa and the cops
Here at Chez Weekend, there’s a rumor circulating that on Christmas Eve, Santa got pulled over by the cops?!
Mon 2020-Dec-14: My cat is a fin-de-siècle French night club cat?!
Apparently the Weekend Publisher, occasionally also known as “my cat”, is the reincarnation of the spirit animal of a fin-de-siècle cabaret in Paris.
Mon 2020-Nov-02: Coronavirus & Elections: The Winter of Our Discontent
The election is coming, with a possibility of right-wing violence and subversion. COVID-19 is forming up for another wave of infections. Winter is coming. It’s terrifying, but there are some things you can do.

CorporateLifeAndItsDiscontents:

Wed 2024-Dec-11: 2022 Tech Layoffs: Gender Bias?
Somebody asked me – ok, really I saw it on Mastodon, but close enough – about gender bias in the tech layoff cycle of 2022. Is it really true that women were targeted?
Fri 2024-Nov-22: US House of Representatives: The Arithmetic of the Wyoming Rule
Over dinner a few days ago, we were talking about about whether the Wyoming Rule would fix some of the bias in the Electoral College. The ‘Wyoming Rule’ is a proposal to make the US House of Representatives more representative of people, not territory. How might the arithmetic work out for which party gets more seats?
Fri 2024-Nov-15: No Twitter No More
No Twitter. No more.
Mon 2024-Aug-05: The Innumeracy of the Rulers
Have you ever wondered just how mathematically illiterate our rulers really are? Buckle up, Buttercup: it’s worse than you think.
Thu 2024-Jul-18: More Anti-Surveillance Fashion
The cameras, facial recognition, and snoopy cops without warrants haven’t gone away. Need new clothes for some reason?
Thu 2024-Jul-11: Good News on HIV Prevention
Good news on preliminary Phase 3 readout of lenacapavir: 100% efficacy in preventing infection!
Mon 2024-Jul-08: You Can Buy WHAT from a Vending Machine in the US?!
In Japan, you can buy almost anything from a vending machine. Recently, here in the US, we’ve made horrible progress on that front.
Sat 2024-Jun-22: AI Large Lanuage Models: Still a BS Firehose
Somebody asked me, in the course of a family video call, what I thought about the latest AI Large Language Models (LLMs) and how they’re being used for everything. Have they improved from their previous BS conditions? Ahem. Uh… no.
Tue 2024-May-14: Right-to-Repair Madness
Sometimes, the “right to repair” can be taken to levels best described as pure madness.
Tue 2024-May-07: On Taxing the Rich
It’s easy for the rich to avoid taxation in the US – it appears that the 400 richest Americans now have an effective tax rate below that of the bottom half of income earners. How unusual is this?
Sat 2024-Apr-06: Career Paths Not Taken
Somebody asked me about Sabine Hossenfelder’s recently published thoughts on the difficulties of academic physics as a career. Yup, she’s right on point!
Mon 2024-Apr-01: On 'Affording' the Rich
Can we afford to live in a world with billionaires? It seems not!
Mon 2024-Mar-11: Tesla vs Safety Engineering
Yesterday came news of the unfortunate death of a driver in a Tesla which backed into a pond, whereupon the power cut making the doors unable to open and the windows essentially unbreakable. How many things went wrong here, and who could have foreseen this?
Tue 2023-Oct-10: Anti-Surveillance Fashion Tips
Tired of all the mass surveillance in our late capitalism culutre? Maybe it’s your fashion sense.
Sat 2023-Sep-30: Long Time, No Blog?
So… long time, no blog, eh?
Wed 2023-Jul-19: Republicans: Mt Rushmore Is A 'Demonic Portal for Communism'
I am slowly learning never to ask how low Republicans can go in the US.
Tue 2023-Jun-20: Personal Data Collection & Cookie Policies
This Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR) now has official personal data collection and cookie policies. You only think you don’t care about that.
Tue 2023-Jun-13: Arraignment Day 2023
Today in the US, we again experimented with a new national commemorative holiday: Arraignment Day for Donald Trump.
Fri 2023-Jun-09: Indictment Day 2023
Yesterday in the US, we experimented with a possible new national commemorative holiday: Indictment Day for Donald Trump.
Tue 2023-Jun-06: On Forgiving Witchcraft… Slooowly
Does anybody else wonder what’s going on in the heads of legislators who are “outlier” votes? Like, when a vote is 33-1, what’s that one guy thinking? Principled holdout, or just stubborn? (Or maybe not very bright?)
Wed 2023-May-10: On Dress Standards
You know how world political, business, and financial leaders fetishize suits for men? Physicists do not do that.
Sat 2023-Mar-25: ChatGPT and Francophone Misbranding
Somebody asked me about the naming of ChatGPT. (Content warning: Remarkably stupid joke, totally skippable by Very Serious People.)
Wed 2023-Feb-15: On ChatGPT and Its Ilk
Somebody just summarized for me the exact nature of ChatGPT.
Mon 2022-Sep-26: Petrov Day #39: Again Celebrating the Day the World Did NOT End
Today the world still did not end, for the 39th time in a row.
Fri 2022-Aug-05: COVID-19: How Bad Was the Unemployment?
Let’s see how job losses and rebounds (not COVID-19 rebounds, this time) look for the pandemic, compared to previous episodes of economic unpleasantness.
Wed 2022-Jul-20: Mysterious Fences and Varnished Onions
Two parables struck my eye this week: GK Chesterton’s Fence, and Primo Levi’s Onion in the Varnish. Do they counsel actions that are opposite, or the same?
Fri 2022-Jul-01: Retirement: 2 Years In, And …
It seems I’ve been retired for 2 years now. What can 2 years of perspective tell us?
Thu 2022-May-19: How to Waste Russian Government Time
I can’t say I entirely approve of this. But I do understand the desire to inconvenience the Russian government given the Ukraine invasion, and the humor involved in the chosen method.
Thu 2022-Apr-14: Passover & Late-Stage Capitalism
So, it’s Passover. What might late-stage capitalism have to say about that?
Sun 2021-Sep-26: Petrov Day #38: Remembering the Day the World Did NOT End
Today the world did not end. That’s 38 times in a row, now.
Sat 2021-Sep-25: Work Nightmares: A Fantasy of Fairness
Yes, discontent with the corporate system and rule by managers is a thing. As are the associated nightmares, and the corresponding fantasies of justice.
Tue 2021-Jun-01: Bayes Rule vs The Millionaire Next Door
Somebody asked me (back in 2012!) about the famous book, The Millionaire Next Door. It’s good as far as it goes; it just doesn’t go nearly as far as almost everybody thinks!
Sat 2020-Sep-26: Petrov Day — The Day the World Didn't End
Today we commemorate 1983-Sep-26: the day Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov prevented the end the world. Go thou forth and do likewise: save as much of the world as you can.

COVID:

Wed 2024-Oct-16: Today I Got Shot… Again!
Today I got shot… i.e., vaccinated against COVID-19… again.
Fri 2024-Jun-21: Addendum to FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition for Fall 2024
There’s an addendum to the post FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition for Fall 2024, about the FDA’s override of the VRBPAC to specify the KP.2 strain for this fall’s COVID-19 vaccine.
Wed 2024-Jun-05: FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition for Fall 2024
Today the US FDA’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to discuss the composition of COVID-19 booster vaccines for fall 2024. Let’s check out the science content.
Thu 2024-May-16: A New Low for Republicans & Masks
Remember how much US Republicans during the pandemic thought wearing masks was a horror beyond imagination? They’ve gone beyond that, now.
Tue 2024-Mar-12: Happily Getting Yet Another COVID-19 Booster
Yesterday I got my 8th COVID-19 booster. It was ok!
Wed 2024-Feb-28: US CDC ACIP Meeting: COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Today the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) met, to decide recommendations on COVID-19 vaccines for 2024. Let’s go see what went down.
Wed 2024-Feb-14: Not Dead Yet
Somebody asked me if I’m dead, given the lack of posts here for 4 months. It’s not prima facie an unreasonable question.
Sat 2023-Sep-30: Long Time, No Blog?
So… long time, no blog, eh?
Thu 2023-Jul-06: COVID-19 mRNA in Boston Wastewater
Some good news: Boston COVID-19 wastewater levels were at (and now slightly above) the 2-year low.
Mon 2023-May-15: Post-COVID-19 Brain Fog: A Portrait in Data
Somebody asked me whether all my whining about post-COVID-19 brain fog was real. Yes, it is.
Thu 2023-Apr-20: Today I Got Shot Yet Again: A 6th COVID-19 Vaccination
Today I got my 6th COVID-19 vaccination. Here’s why, in case you’re interested.
Wed 2023-Mar-15: COVID-19 Disgraces
How has the US performed vis à vis COVID-19? Are we learning to do better?
Tue 2023-Feb-14: On the Base Rate Fallacy, Redux
Will we ever not be trapped by the base rate fallacy?
Fri 2023-Jan-27: FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition Going Forward
The FDA VRBPAC (Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee) met this week to discuss the composition of vaccines going forward. In particular, should we consolidate on a series of bivalent shots instead of the current mixture of old and new?
Mon 2022-Nov-21: The Weekend Editrix's Flu & Bivalent Booster Adventures (And Why She Went Through Them)
Today the Weekend Editrix got her annual flu vax and COVID-19 bivalent booster. Let’s look at why that’s a good idea for all of us.
Sat 2022-Nov-12: Some Good News About COVID-19
We just may be turning the corner.
Mon 2022-Nov-07: Today I Got Shot… For the 12th Time
Today I got my 12th vaccination since 2020! Really.
Mon 2022-Oct-24: Paxlovid in the Wild Redux
What do we know about the people for whom paxlovid works really well?
Tue 2022-Oct-18: On COVID-19 Antivirals: Real-World Experience
Our newest COVID-19 antiviral medicines, molnupiravir and paxlovid, have been out for a while now. What’s the real-world experience on efficacy?
Fri 2022-Sep-23: New SARS-CoV2 Variants… Again!
Tired of COVID-19? Me too. But… apparently the SARS-CoV2 virus is not yet tired of us!
Tue 2022-Sep-20: On the Reproducibility of Twitter Polls
Everybody knows Twitter polls are… questionable. But are they reproducible?
Sat 2022-Sep-10: On Timing the Next Bivalent Booster for Omicron COVID-19
Somebody asked me when we’d be getting the new bivalent COVID-19 boosters. (Not if but when.) Since we’ve both recently had COVID-19, that requires a bit of a think.
Tue 2022-Sep-06: Nucleocapsid Abs & Severe COVID-19
Somebody asked me a couple months ago about the significance of high nucleocapsid antibodies in unvaccinated people compared to the vaccinated. Now there’s another paper exploring the meaning of N ab levels. Let’s see what it says!
Sun 2022-Sep-04: COVID-19 Chez Weekend: Index of Posts
This is an index to all the Weekend Reading blog posts about our experience of the two of us having COVID-19 here at Chez Weekend.
Wed 2022-Aug-31: US FDA Grants Emergency Use Authorization for Bivalent Classic/Omicron COVID-19 Vaccines
Today the FDA granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to both Pfizer and Moderna’s bivalent COVID-19 vaccines for classic and Omicron/BA.4/5 variants.
Tue 2022-Aug-23: COVID-19: One Month Later
It’s been a month since we were exposed to COVID-19 here at Château Weekend, testing positive 2 days later. Surely it must all be over, right? Right? Ahem.
Fri 2022-Aug-19: COVID-19: Day 25
So… 25 days into the COVID-19 journey. Is it over yet?
Mon 2022-Aug-15: COVID-19: Day 21
Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?
Thu 2022-Aug-11: COVID-19: Day 17
So… are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?
Tue 2022-Aug-09: COVID-19: Day 15
So… 15 days into COVID-19.
Mon 2022-Aug-08: COVID-19: The Power of Positive Thinking
People are always telling me to “think positive”. I hate it.
Fri 2022-Aug-05: COVID-19: How Bad Was the Unemployment?
Let’s see how job losses and rebounds (not COVID-19 rebounds, this time) look for the pandemic, compared to previous episodes of economic unpleasantness.
Thu 2022-Aug-04: COVID-19: Paxlovid Rebound, or COVID-19 Rebound?
Is “paxlovid rebound” because of paxlovid, or because there are just a lot of COVID-19 rebounds?
Tue 2022-Aug-02: COVID-19 & Paxlovid: After Day 8
Today is day 8 of my COVID-19 + paxlovid personal experience, i.e., 3 days past the last dose. Time to check for rebound infection.
Sat 2022-Jul-30: COVID-19 & Paxlovid: After Day 5
Today I took my last dose of paxlovid.
Fri 2022-Jul-29: COVID-19 & Paxlovid: After Days 3-4
Closing in on the 5th day of COVID, i.e., 4th day of paxlovid treatment.
Wed 2022-Jul-27: COVID-19 & Paxlovid: After Day 2
It’s now 2 days into my course of paxlovid for COVID-19.
Tue 2022-Jul-26: COVID-19 & Paxlovid: After Day 1
It’s now 1 day into my course of paxlovid for COVID-19.
Mon 2022-Jul-25: COVID-19 & Paxlovid: Day 0, Testing Positive & Getting Prescribed
Today your humble Weekend Editor finally tested positive for COVID-19. Sigh.
Tue 2022-Jul-12: Is COVID-19 Omicron/BA.4-5 the Most Infectious Viral Disease in Human History?
Somebody asked me about how seriously we should take the COVID-19 Omicron/BA.4-5 variants, given that so many people are “done with COVID” and refuse to mask. Response: basically, we should take it very seriously; people without masks are being very silly. Silly in a deadly fashion, irresponsible to the health of the rest of us. To answer the titular question: yes, unfortunately, it appears so.
Fri 2022-Jul-01: Retirement: 2 Years In, And …
It seems I’ve been retired for 2 years now. What can 2 years of perspective tell us?
Tue 2022-Jun-28: FDA VRBPAC: Omicron-Specific COVID-19 Boosters?
Today the FDA’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to consider whether to add Omicron-specific vaccines to the mix, and how that policy should be set. Wanna read along to see what they do?
Thu 2022-Jun-23: On Biomarkers for Long COVID-19
Some crazy people are suspicious that Long COVID-19 is not a real thing. So we’re gratified here at Chez Weekend to find papers documenting some biomarkers for it that look pretty good!
Tue 2022-Jun-21: On the Efficacy of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been controversial: people continue to object loudly and strongly to things like masking, social distancing, and closures of schools and workplaces. We now have some retrospective data: how have each of those measures performed, in terms of live saved for the complaints they’ve caused?
Thu 2022-Jun-16: US Vaccination Rates: How's Your County Doing?
How thorough are vaccination rates in the US? And how geographically inhomogeneous?
Sun 2022-Jun-12: On the Lifetime of Conspiracies
The world is full of conspiracy theories, more than I recall ever being the case in the past, before social media. How reasonable is it to expect that a conspiracy can (a) depend on secrecy, (b) involve a large number of people, and (c) survive for more than a couple years? Not very, according to a probabilistic model!
Wed 2022-Jun-08: Readout of Moderna Bivalent Classic/Omicron Vaccine
Today the Moderna trial of a bivalent classic/Omicron COVID-19 vaccine read out. Looks pretty good, so a regulatory filing with the FDA is pending.
Tue 2022-Jun-07: FDA VRBPAC Meeting: Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to advise the FDA on whether to approve Novavax’s more traditional protein (non-mRNA) vaccine against COVID-19. Want to know who said what?
Fri 2022-Jun-03: COVID-19: Immunity Types and Real Prevalence
Two questions: what do we know about disease-induced vs vaccine-induced immunity, and what is the actual prevalence of COVID-19 beyond “officially reported” cases? Now there’s some data to think about here, though we can’t completely answer those questions.
Thu 2022-Jun-02: Paxlovid in the Wild
An Israeli group has studied the use of paxlovid to treat COVID in a large group of age-stratified patients vs the SARS-CoV2 Omicron variant. The results are interesting, and a bit different from what I’d expected.
Wed 2022-Jun-01: Upcoming FDA VRBPAC Meetings
Three meetings of the FDA’s VRBPAC advisors on vaccines are coming up this month.
Wed 2022-May-25: Japan's COVID-19 Control: A Great Success
Japan has done a quantitatively great job protecting Japanese citizens from COVID-19. What can we learn from them (about this, and so many other things)?
Sun 2022-May-22: Hank Green, John Green, and the Great Asymmetry
Videos by “vlogbrothers” Hank & John Green on the despair of the times led me to a WH Auden poem and an essay by Stephen Jay Gould on the ease of destruction vs the triviality of destruction. Also, a quick stop to visit Virgil (not via Inferno). Few can build; anybody can burn.
Sat 2022-May-21: Sibylla Bostoniensis: Getting Paxlovid in Massachusetts
Siderea at Sibylla Bostoniensis today published a useful guide to getting prescribed paxlovid in Massachusetts, should you have the misfortune to find yourself testing positive for COVID-19.
Fri 2022-May-20: Missouri: Ivermectin Gag Order
Right-wing strategy: when reality has a well-known liberal bias… you can use legal gag orders to force your delusions upon people.
Wed 2022-May-18: COVID-19: Officially 1 Million US Dead
[Tone warning: Angry post.] We reached yesterday a grim and disgraceful milestone in the US, having at least 1 million COVID-19 dead. And that’s just the official count.
Thu 2022-May-12: What's in the Moderna 2022-Q1 Earnings Call?
Apparently Moderna just had an earnings call, and there was some talk of whether multivalent Omicron boosters could be available in time for fall/winter 2022/2023.
Wed 2022-May-11: Which Arm Gets the Booster?
A burning question for everybody who’s gotten a booster, or wants one: the same arm, or the other arm?
Tue 2022-May-10: Compassion for the Unvaccinated
I have a hard time controlling my anger at the unvaccinated, the spreaders of disinformation, and the superstitious for prolonging the pandemic and killing people world-wide. Others, who are likely better people than me, have managed to find another way.
Sun 2022-May-08: The Highest-Vaccination Ethnic Group in the US, Redux
Remember last year when we noted the highest-vaccination ethnic group in the US? They’re still winning, and it shows in the statistics.
Fri 2022-May-06: The Pan-Coronavirus Vaccine Landscape
What sort of progress is being made on pancoronavirus vaccines?
Tue 2022-May-03: How Can Evusheld Possibly Work?!
Evusheld is an antibody infusion which confers about 6 months of vaccine-like immunity to COVID-19. How can that possibly work, when antibodies last a few days to a few weeks?!
Mon 2022-May-02: No Masks + New Wave = ?
Somehow we’ve stumbled into striking down mask mandates. Who did that? AND is it ok, with the next wave situation of SARS-CoV2? Do you even have to guess?
Sun 2022-May-01: It's Always Been 2 Americas for COVID-19
COVID-19 has brought to light a lot of disparities in the US. Today’s scientific paper is about just how certainly we know the Trumpy parts of the country, especially the South, were COVID-19 disasters: hundreds of thousands of excess deaths due to mask defiance, vaccine refusal, and malign conservative disinformation.
Sat 2022-Apr-30: Preventive Paxlovid Fails
Pfizer just read out a Phase 2/3 trial of paxlovid for preventing transmission of COVID-19 to other members of a household when one member is infected. Alas: nope.
Fri 2022-Apr-29: Too Much AND Too Little COVID-19?!
Recently 2 Trump-appointed judges in the US have ruled that they can overturn Biden policies because there is simultaneously too much COVID-19 and too little COVID-19. They’re not even pretending to be rational any more.
Thu 2022-Apr-28: Weekend Editrix Shot For the 7th Time
Today the Weekend Editrix got shot for the 7th time in the trailing 12 months, having gotten her 2nd booster for COVID-19.
Mon 2022-Apr-25: Japan's Shionogi Ltd. Has Another COVID-19 Antiviral in Late-Stage Trials
Some good news: there’s now another COVID-19 antiviral drug candidate that has the same target as paxlovid in late clinical trials.
Mon 2022-Apr-18: Ivermectin vs Strongyloidiasis Paper Published
Somebody asked me about the evidence associating putative ivermectin effects with worms, not COVID-19. Seems like it’s been finally published!
Fri 2022-Apr-08: FDA VRBPAC Meeting on Booster & Vaccine Variant Policy
This week the FDA’S Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to consider future policy for vaccine boosters and variants for the future.
Fri 2022-Apr-01: Today: Shot for the 7th time
Today I got my 7th vaccination shot in the last 12 months. Happily.
Fri 2022-Mar-25: On the Tension Between Hope and Despair
I feel I’m walking a knife-edge between hope and despair. The news is not helping.
Fri 2022-Mar-18: COVID-19: Lessons Learned & Another Booster
We would like to think we’ve learned a few things from our collective COVID-19 experience, but the evidence is somewhat equivocal. What we’ve definitely learned is that there will almost certainly be another booster.
Wed 2022-Mar-09: Rethinking NPIs and Vaccinations
People are clamoring for an end to “restrictions”, by which they mean masks and closures. And, of course, vaccination mandates. They’re eager to be done with COVID-19, whether COVID-19 is done with them or not. Does any of that make sense? Well… some of it… maybe.
Mon 2022-Mar-07: Ivermectin Revenant
Somebody asked about a recently published abstract comparing ivermectin vs remdesivir in treating COVID-19. (Sigh.)
Fri 2022-Mar-04: On the Difficulty of Making Paxlovid
Somebody asked me why we don’t have enough paxlovid or bebtelovimab to go around. After mumbling “something something supply chain”, they ask another question: why can’t we just make more, and faster? Far from being naïve, that’s a very good question.
Sat 2022-Feb-26: Masterful Data Journalism on US Political Resistance to COVID-19 Vaccines
Joss Fong at Vox just put together an explainer on political defiance of COVID-19 vaccines in the US. It’s one of the best pieces of data journalism lite (i.e., no equations) and graphic design for explanation that I’ve ever seen.
Wed 2022-Feb-23: Pessimism and Optimism
Somebody asked me why I’m always so dour. Well, times are hard: pandemic waves, disinformation & death, potential nuclear war over Ukraine, the rise of the fascist right, climate change not only unchecked but furiously denied, and so on. So let’s take some inventory of our problems… and maybe a few points that (may) cause hope for the future.
Sat 2022-Feb-19: Republicans Still a Death Cult?!
Yesterday came simultaneous bits of evidence in the US that (a) COVID-19 death rates for unvaccinated are unambiguously disastrous, and (b) Republicans attempted to defund any school that takes COVID-19 protections. This is ‘death cult’ levels of badness.
Tue 2022-Feb-15: Sustaining Spirit in Hard Times: People are Complicated
Times are difficult, here in the 3rd year of a global pandemic that drags on and on, because people just cannot grasp the importance of public health measures and vaccination. Anything that sustains our spirit and our belief in a good core of human nature is important. So why am I looking at dog statues on bridges in Prague?
Sun 2022-Feb-13: The Shame of the Anti-Vaxxers
The shameful behavior of the anti-vaxxers has reached intolerable levels. It’s been extremely bad for a while, but now they’re picking off prominent scientists and public intellectuals with death threats.
Fri 2022-Feb-11: FDA VRBPAC To Consider Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine for Kids 6mo - 4yr
On Monday 2022-Feb-15 the FDA’s VRBPAC will meet to consider Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for ages 6mo - 2yr. It worked for 6mo - 2yr, but not for 2yr - 4yr. A 3rd dose is being tested for 2yr - 4yr, but the FDA invited this application so parents can get their kids started on the first 2 doses while waiting for data on the 3rd. Unusual? Very!
Wed 2022-Feb-09: On the Moderna Monkey Trial of Omicron-Specific Boosters
Somebody asked me about a report that Moderna’s monkey trial of an Omicron-specific booster wasn’t any better than the existing vaccine. What should we think about that?
Tue 2022-Feb-08: On the Importance of Nagging the Unvaccinated
It’s important that we keep nagging people to get vaccinated, at escalating levels of unpleasantness. Let me show you why.
Mon 2022-Feb-07: SARS-CoV2 Cryptic Sequences in NYC Wastewater: Why Not to Sleep Well at Night
As long as we’ve got our heads in the sewers, what else is happening with wastewater SARS-CoV2 analyses? It turns out, New York City rather alarmingly has some “cryptic sequences” not yet observed in humans. This is how the virus is scheming to throw another wave at us.
Fri 2022-Feb-04: Boston Wastewater Re-Re-Visited: Sewage Viral RNA vs COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
In 2020-November and 2021-May, we looked at the SARS-CoV2 mRNA in Boston wastewater. It’s relation to medical loads was erratic. How’s it look with another 9 months of data?
Mon 2022-Jan-31: When You Say 'I Did My Own Research'… What Does That Sound Like to Actual Research Scientists?
Lots people say ‘I did my own research’ on subjects in which they are not sufficiently educated to evaluate data, let alone form an independent opinion reliably. Here’s what that sounds like to actual research scientists.
Mon 2022-Jan-31: Moderna COVID-19 vaccine fully FDA-approved
Good news: the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, aka ‘Spikevax’, is now fully FDA-approved!
Fri 2022-Jan-28: The Ten Billionth Dose
There have now been around 10 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses given. What should we make of that?
Wed 2022-Jan-26: Pan-Coronavirus Vaccines
Last October, we noted that NIAID had granted $36 million for the development of a pan-coronavirus vaccine. Time for an report: how’s that working out?
Wed 2022-Jan-19: Med-Chem Optimization of Paxlovid
Previously, we wrote about how hard it currently is to find paxlovid, given intense demand, supply chain frustrations, and the complex synthesis pathway. Today let’s have a look at how exactly one goes about discovering such a thing, with an improbable number of steps in its chemistry. (Hint: an awful lot of luck/serendipity was involved!)
Tue 2022-Jan-18: Comparing the US COVID-19 Pandemic to Other Countries
How’s the US pandemic doing in comparison to other countries, particularly those that Republicans love to diss?
Wed 2022-Jan-12: Paxlovid Availability vs the Omicron Wave
The Omicron wave is coming. Paxlovid is scarce. Which way will it go?
Tue 2022-Jan-11: Finding paxlovid
Paxlovid is a remarkable early therapeutic for people who’ve caught COVID-19. But… it’s very scarce for the next few months, ironically during the Omicron wave. Where can you score some paxlovid?!
Thu 2022-Jan-06: Reeeeeeally long COVID!
How long can COVID-19 go on? If you answered less than $O(10^4)$ years until everyone with susceptible genes is dead… well, think again.
Wed 2021-Dec-22: FDA Authorizes Paxlovid
… aaaaand, today the suspense is over: the FDA has authorized paxlovid.
Tue 2021-Dec-14: Veni, veni paxlovid!
Today Pfizer announced they’ve submitted the final data package to the FDA for their COVID-19 anti-viral oral therapy, paxlovid. Wanna take a look at the (scant) data we have so far, as a holiday gift of sorts to all of humanity?
Fri 2021-Dec-10: The Weekend Editrix Exposed to COVID-19: An Adventure with Bayes Rule in Medical Testing
Last weekend, the Weekend Editrix was exposed to a person who tested positive for COVID-19. The need for rapid testing suddenly became very real for us. While waiting for the test to work, we worked out the Bayesian stats for the test: a positive test means near-100% chance of COVID-19, while a negative test means 89.4% chance of no COVID-19.
Thu 2021-Dec-09: FDA Grants EUA to AstraZeneca's Evusheld for COVID-19 Prevention
Guess what? Yesterday, the FDA gave Emergency Use Authorization to another COVID-19 medication, Evusheld from AstraZeneca. Yeah… I didn’t know, either!
Wed 2021-Dec-08: Some Advice from 'Your Local Epidemiologist'
YLE has some important advice for all of us about surviving Omicron.
Mon 2021-Dec-06: Omicron vs Delta
Will the Omicron variant outcompete Delta? Starting to look like it. Will that be a bad thing? Dunno, could go either way depending on reinfection rate and severity.
Sun 2021-Dec-05: Avoding Vaccination With More Creativity Than Common Sense
Remember last month, when we had the story about people in Greece bribing doctors for fake vaccines, and doctors taking the money but giving real vaccines? Even though that story has some believability challenges, it’s no longer the weirdest vaccine story I’ve heard. Move over, Greece: the Italians are on the job. (And where are the French surrealists, anyway?)
Thu 2021-Dec-02: Mea Culpa: Efficacies Don't Average!
A couple days ago, commenting at TheZvi, I blithely averaged efficacies from the early and late cohorts of the molnupiravir trial. Fellow commenter Thomas pointed out that this is not correct! This post is a mea culpa and a lesson to myself on How to Do It Right.
Tue 2021-Nov-30: FDA AMDAC Considers Merck's Molnupiravir
Today the FDA’s Antimicrobial Drugs Advisory Committee (AMDAC) meets to decide whether or not to recommend emergency use authorization (EUA) of Merck’s molnupiravir, and antiviral therapy for mild to moderate COVID-19 in adults. Wanna read along?
Sat 2021-Nov-27: So, nu? (I mean… So, omicron?)
There’s a new SARS-CoV2 variant. How bad does it look? Nobody really knows, but it’s got the potential to be very, very bad.
Tue 2021-Nov-23: COVID-19: Is it 'over'?
With vaccination rates rising (albeit glacially slowly), and new therapeutics like molnupiravir and paxlovid about to be approved, people are asking: is it over? My take is: probably not.
Fri 2021-Nov-19: A Couple Ivermectin Takedowns
The right-wing knuckleheadedness around ivermectin as a COVID-19 therapy continues to amaze me. This week I came across 2 ivermectin takedowns: a Malaysian clinical trial and Scott Alexander’s dissection of the ivmmeta.com metanalysis. Two thumbs down. Way down.
Tue 2021-Nov-16: COVID-19 Continues to Kill Conservatives
Charles Gaba has updated his county-level COVID-19 vax rates and death rates, versus percentage of Trump voters. It’s not pretty.
Fri 2021-Nov-12: On New COVID-19 Therapeutics
Vaccines are great, but now there are some exciting new treatments for COVID-19, in case you get a breakthrough infection (or made the wrong choice about accepting vaccination). Let’s look at how well they work, and what they might cost in comparison to other things.
Tue 2021-Nov-09: On kids and vaccines: ending the pandemic
If you think we can end the pandemic without vaccinating kids because they tend not to get so sick… think again. Try harder this time.
Mon 2021-Nov-08: Three Lessons from COVID
COVID-19 has taught us some lessons about (a) how mind-numbingly stupid and corrupt we can be, and (b) some forms of corruption that are so confusing that I can’t tell if they are the divine madness or instead just &Gammad;ΤΦ.
Thu 2021-Nov-04: Natural vs Vaccine Immunity, Redux
Last summer, we saw some evidence that COVID-19 vaccination conferred better immunity than ‘natural’ immunity from recovering from the disease. How has that held up in the face of new evidence?
Sat 2021-Oct-30: The Partisan Divide on COVID-19 Deaths
COVID-19 death rates in the US are nakedly partisan. So is mask resistance. So is delusional belief about nonsensical use of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine. Care to draw a conclusion?
Wed 2021-Oct-27: Today the Weekend Editrix got shot (for the 6th time!)
Today the Weekend Editrix got shot, also for the sixth time this year! It was pretty good.
Tue 2021-Oct-26: FDA VRBPAC Considers Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine for Kids 5 – 11
Today the FDA’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) meets to discuss an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty for children ages 5 – 11. Lots of parents have been awaiting this for the last year and a half, with varying degress of frayed nerves.
Mon 2021-Oct-25: Are We Close to the End of the Pandemic?
Well… are we?
Sun 2021-Oct-24: On 'Natural' Immunity Persistence vs COVID-19
What are the consequences of relying on ‘natural’ immunity after recovery from COVID-19? Pretty grim, as it turns out.
Fri 2021-Oct-22: Cops vs The Rest of Us: Mask Edition
Two NYPD transit cops forcibly ejected a citizen from a Manhattan subway station. His crime? Pointing out that the cops were not wearing masks, in contravention of a statewide mask mandate, and, for that matter, simple common sense and courtesy.
Mon 2021-Oct-18: Vaccine Mandate Origins in the US
The history of why vaccine mandates are in fact constitutional in the United States has a long, somewhat twisted history. It’s also of local interest, here at Chez Weekend, as many of the important events transpired a short MBTA ride away.
Fri 2021-Oct-15: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for J&J and Mix/Match Boosters
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Johnson & Johnson/Janssen application for 2nd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine. They will also at least discuss the 3x3 mix-and-match booster study.
Thu 2021-Oct-14: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for Moderna Spikevax
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Moderna application for 3rd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. Wonderful name aside, there should be a good case to be made as well.
Mon 2021-Oct-04: COVID-19 Miscellany
Do you want the good news first?
Mon 2021-Sep-27: Today I got shot (for the 6th time!)
Today I got shot. Again. For the sixth time this year!
Sat 2021-Sep-18: On the Naming of Vaccines
Today I learned the commercial names of the COVID-19 vaccines. One of them is a real winner!
Fri 2021-Sep-17: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for Pfizer Comirnaty
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Pfizer/BioNTech application for 3rd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Opinion is divided, so there will be some arguing. I’m makin’ popcorn.
Tue 2021-Sep-07: The Madness of Vaccine Resistance
Have a quarter of us gone mad? It would seem so…
Thu 2021-Sep-02: Are we wasting too much COVID-19 vaccine?
Today comes news that we’ve wasted about 15.1 million doses of COVID-19 doses here in the US. Is that a lot, or a little? How does it compare with history? Is the difference, if any, just random or is it real, i.e., statistically significant?
Sun 2021-Aug-29: Vaccination vs Hospitalization Rates: Simpson's Paradox
Somebody asked me about why the vaccines are high efficacy with rare breakthrough infections, but we can see a high fraction of the hospitalized are vaccinated? Right, very puzzling. Then somebody else asked me what I thought of an article about Simpson’s paradox in the context of COVID. Ding, ding, ding, ding!
Sun 2021-Aug-29: ZDoggMD on telling COVID stories to motivate vaccination
I’m a data-driven guy who detests persuasian by emotional anecdotes. But most people are, to my dismay, different in that regard. ZDoggMD does a good job today of persuading them.
Mon 2021-Aug-23: Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine fully FDA-approved
Good news: the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is now fully FDA-approved!
Thu 2021-Aug-19: Two Predictions
From time to time, we make predictions here. Two of them were: high probability of COVID-19 vaccine boosters by fall 2021, and mRNA vaccines will dramatically change the future of vaccines. Guess what happened this week?
Wed 2021-Aug-18: COVID-19 Vaccines and Alzheimers: Analyzing the Myth
Somebody asked me about whether the COVID-19 vaccines prevented Alzheimers. Wait, what?
Tue 2021-Aug-17: COVID-19 Vaccines and Infertility: Analyzing the Myth
Somebody asked me about whether the COVID-19 vaccine could cause infertility. Wait, what?
Wed 2021-Aug-04: Vaccine Efficacy, Delta Variant, and the CDC Changes
Last week several bombs were dropped: COVID vaccine efficacy with the Delta variant, breakthrough infections, asymptomatic carriers, and changes in CDC guidelines. Was the panicky media coverage at all useful?
Thu 2021-Jul-29: Anger Among the Vaccinated
Somebody asked me why vaccinated people in the US seemed to be always so angry at the unvaccinated. Hmpf.
Mon 2021-Jul-19: COVID-19 Vaccination is Better Than Natural Immunity
Periodically I meet people who think “natural” immunity from having had COVID-19 is somehow better than being vaccinated. A new Israeli study plumbs the depths of just how wrong that is.
Sat 2021-Jul-17: COVID Vaccines: Why Not Full Approval?
Somebody asked me a couple days ago why the Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J vaccines don’t have full FDA approval. Umm… hmm. Good question.
Fri 2021-Jul-16: The Highest-Vaccination Ethnic Group in the US
What ethnic group in the US do you think has the highest vaccination rate?
Mon 2021-Jul-12: Thoughts on Variants & Vaccines
The variants are starting to pile up. Unless we vaccinate everybody faster, there are going to be variants which evade vaccines and then we start all over. How close are we to that?
Tue 2021-Jul-06: Vaccinations vs Votes
Back in April, we did some statistical analysis showing Trumpy states tended to have dramatically lower vaccination rates. Is that still the case? Regrettably, yes: more than ever.
Wed 2021-Jun-30: ZDoggMD on the Delta Variant
Somebody asked me what I thought of ZDogg’s explanation of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant. My first thought was “ZDogg who? Is that a rapper or something?” My final thought was that the guy’s eminently reasonable, eloquent, and kind.
Thu 2021-Jun-10: US COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries
As COVID-19 gradually comes under control in the US, we are becoming 2 countries: one that listends to science and medical advice, and another rather more backward. This leads to some startlingly disturbing contrasts in the news.
Fri 2021-May-21: Wastewater Revisited: Metagenomic Viral RNA and Medical Loads
Last November, we looked at metagenomics of sewage SARS-CoV-2 RNA vs medical loads in Boston. The results then were inconclusive. There’s a lot more data now. Does the mRNA in sewage actually predict anything useful about COVID hospital admission, ICU admission, ventilator use, and death? Yes, it does.
Wed 2021-May-12: More sense about vaccines from Hank Green
Hank Green once again has one or two true and useful words to say to young people about COVID-19 vaccination.
Mon 2021-May-10: Dracula and the vaccine
Romania has one of the highest vaccine hesitancy rates in Europe, around 50%. They’re starting to get… creative.
Thu 2021-May-06: Good news on vaccines vs variants!
Some good news, for once: the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is now known to work quite well against the British & South African variants in the real world. Especially in preventing hospitalization and death.
Wed 2021-May-05: Immunity freedom day for the Weekend Editrix!
As of today, the esteemed Weekend Editrix is 2 weeks past her 2nd dose of the Pfizer vaccine, and thus as fully immunized as it’s possible to be right now. At 3pm EDT, she is officially out of COVID jail! Well, more or less…
Fri 2021-Apr-30: CORVID 19
In Latin, “corvus” means crow. So the adjectival form used in biology for birds-such-as-crows is “corvid”. Sometimes people get confused in interesting ways.
Sat 2021-Apr-24: The Billionth Dose
As of yesterday, we passed a remarkable milestone: the billionth COVID-19 vaccination dose has been administered.
Fri 2021-Apr-23: JnJ Revenant
Today the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) today recommended restoring use of the JnJ COVID-19 vaccine with warnings, and thrombosis treatment guidelines for clinicians. The CDC & FDA agreed, and lifted the restrictions. This seems to be very much the correct conclusion, albeit one arrived at far too slowly.
Wed 2021-Apr-21: Today the Weekend Editrix got shot (again)
Today the Weekend Editrix got shot. Again. (The good way.)
Mon 2021-Apr-19: Politics vs mask use & vaccine uptake in the US
Does political alignment in the US inform medically-relevant behaviors like mask use and vaccine uptake? Alas, yes: but not in a good way.
Fri 2021-Apr-16: Another study of clotting and COVID vaccines
Another study has come out, comparing clotting risks of COVID-19 and various vaccines versus each other. What are the risks? And can we interpret the study the obvious way, or not?
Tue 2021-Apr-13: US pauses JnJ vaccine on thromboses
Today the US regulatory agencies “paused” the use of the JnJ COVID-19 vaccine to investigate thromboses, similar to what’s been seen with the AZ/OX vaccine. How many, how bad, and what will a pause do?
Thu 2021-Apr-08: Reading the RNA in the Pfizer & Moderna vaccines
Have you ever wondered if you could make sense of the RNA code in the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, if you could just read it? With some help, you can now do exactly that.
Wed 2021-Apr-07: Immunity freedom day!
As of today, your humble Weekend Editor is 2 weeks past the 2nd dose of the Pfizer vaccine. At 5pm, I am officially out of COVID jail! Right? Not quite…
Sat 2021-Apr-03: Pfizer/Moderna vaccine mRNA sequences posted on GitHub
Interestingly, some Stanford scientists saved a few drops of the Moderna vaccine, apparently ran them through their sequencers, and posted the sequences on GitHub.
Fri 2021-Apr-02: Well, that didn't take long
As we’ve seen before, the biggest group of American vaccine refuseniks are White Republicans (especially men). Guess who’s swooping in to take up their vaccine supply?
Wed 2021-Mar-31: Today the Weekend Editrix got shot
Today the Weekend Editrix got shot. The good way: Pfizer/BioNTech PF-07302048/BNT162b2.
Tue 2021-Mar-30: Proposed Darwin Award for vaccine policy
Sometimes politicians pursue policies so breathtakingly out of touch with reality, you just don’t know what to say. (Understandably, because “breathtaking”.)
Tue 2021-Mar-30: Variants vs Vaccines
SARS-CoV-2 is mutating, in increasingly dangerous ways. Can we keep up with booster vaccines for the variants, or even eliminate it once and for all?
Wed 2021-Mar-24: Today I got shot (again)
Today I got shot (again). In the good sense: the second dose of Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine.
Tue 2021-Mar-23: AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine trial (and its further discontents!)
Somebody asked me about the AstraZeneca press release on their new Phase 3 vaccine trial. AstraZeneca has done it again… just not in a good way.
Mon 2021-Mar-22: The pandemic year in retrospect
Time for perspective: we’ve been stuck in a pandemic for a year now. What’s the best summary of your experience?
Wed 2021-Mar-17: The AstraZeneca/Oxford Vaccine vs Blood Clots
Somebody asked me whether worries the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine and dangerous blood clotting seen in some patients were a real problem. You know what the anti-vaxxers are gonna say; what do the data say?
Wed 2021-Mar-10: Republicans vs Herd Immunity
If a large enough clade of US persons refuse COVID-19 vaccination, herd immunity may never be reached. Right now in the US, that clade seems to be White Republicans. (World-wide, it’s of course more complicated.)
Mon 2021-Mar-08: I guess I like Dolly Parton?!
There is an apparently famous American country music singer named Dolly Parton. I was never a fan because… country music, ugh! But it appears I need to be a fan of the woman herself, because of her philanthropy and her encouragment of vaccination. Hmm… I had no idea.
Wed 2021-Mar-03: Today I got shot
Today I got shot. No, not the bad way (though gun control is a legitimate issue in the US). I mean, with the first dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. Getting the appointment (and the 2nd dose) was Kafkaesque. The actual medical experience was pretty ok.
Fri 2021-Feb-26: Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 review by FDA external advisory committee
Today the J&J COVID-19 vaccine gets reviewed by VRBPAC (Vaccines & Related Biological Products Advisory Committee) at the FDA, for an EUA (Emergency Use Authorization). Let’s have a look through their submission documents!
Mon 2021-Feb-01: COVID-19 vaccines: the need for speed
Vaccine rollouts worldwide, with very few exceptions, have been slow & bungled. But we face a cruel equation: delay = death. Why do we tolerate this?
Fri 2021-Jan-29: JnJ COVID-19 vaccine interim readout: 57% - 72% efficacy, depending on… SOMETHING
Today Johnson & Johnson/Janssen announced the interim readout (not final numbers!) of their adenovirus-vector based COVID-19 vaccine: 72% efficacy in the US, down to 57% efficacy in South Africa. We previously described the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna/Lonza vaccines as “beautiful”; this is “relatively pretty”. Pretty enough to do some good in the world, though.
Sat 2021-Jan-16: Is 'natural' immunity any better than vaccine immunity to COVID-19?
Periodically, anti-vaxxers will say they prefer the ‘natural’ immunity acquired by recovering from a disease, because vaccines are ‘artificial’. Is that likely to be true for COVID-19? In a word: NO.
Thu 2021-Jan-14: COVID-19 loves Republican politicians
Suppose you had 2 groups of politicians, but one of them thought a pandemic was “fake news”, refused to wear masks, congregated indoors with no social distancing, blocked public health spending, mocked public health guidance, was proud of their ignorance, and were just in general jerks about the subject. Do you think they’d get infected with the disease more often than their opponents?
Sun 2021-Jan-03: Formal scientific publication of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine Phase 3 trial
On 2020-Dec-30, the formal scientific publication of the Moderna’s COVID-19 Phase 3 trail in the prestigious New Englad Journal of Medicine dropped into public view. It’s good.
Thu 2020-Dec-31: The mutant coronavirus: will the vaccines still work?
Somebody asked me whether the COVID-19 vaccines currently being used would work vs the mutant form of SARS-CoV-2 now driving COVID-19 in the UK. Looks like it probably will, though nobody really knows. What will definitely work: masking, social distancing, working from home, no gatherings beyond a single household, having adequate food & medicine stored, getting a flu vaccination, and not being a super-spreader of misinformation.
Wed 2020-Dec-30: Serious adverse event frequency: about like getting struck by lightning?
Explaining to COVID vaccine clinical trial participants that the probability of a certain serious adverse event is 1/50,000 or less doesn’t work. Most people instantly stop listening at the slightest whiff of mathematics, including ordinary numbers. But if you compare it to being struck by lightning, that makes sense to most people. Can you guess what happened next?
Mon 2020-Dec-28: You're scaring me
You all are scaring me, with your science denying, mask refusing, socially close quarters, holiday travelling ways. C’mon: wear a mask, socially distance, avoid indoor gatherings, get a flu shot. At least pretend to try you want to live until the vaccine is available, ok? Then maybe you won’t randomly kill the rest of us, who do want to live.
Fri 2020-Dec-18: XKCD explains it all
Randall Munroe, the mad cartoonist behind XKCD, explains COVID-19 vaccine approvals. And channels Lord Rutherford. Simultaneously.
Fri 2020-Dec-18: Moderna vaccine passes FDA external advisory committee!
Yesterday was also a good day: the FDA’s external advisory committee passed the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at 5:20pm EST on 2020-Dec-17. Late today, the FDA agreed and granted the Emergency Use Authorization.
Tue 2020-Dec-15: Another beautiful vaccine: a look into the Moderna FDA EUA submission package
Somebody asked me about the contents of the Moderna EUA application for their COVID-19 vaccine. Summary: It is also quite beautiful.
Sat 2020-Dec-12: Are the Pfizer vaccine's efficacy confidence intervals sensible?
Somebody asked me about the confidence intervals Pfizer reported for vaccine efficacy in various age groups. Some of them are negative! Are they sensible?
Thu 2020-Dec-10: Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine passes FDA external advisory committee!
Today is a good day: the FDA’s external advisory committee passed the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine at 6:30pm EST.
Tue 2020-Dec-08: A beautiful vaccine: a look into the Pfizer/BioNTech FDA EUA submission package
Ok, nobody asked me this time, because for once I got out ahead of them. It seems Pfizer/BioNTech submitted an EUA (“emergency use authorization”) package to the FDA. What’s it look like?
Fri 2020-Nov-27: AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine interim readout (and its discontents)
Somebody asked me about the early readout this week of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine Phase 3 trial. Initially they said 70% efficacy. It’s not a stunningly good 95% result like Pfizer or Moderna; still, it’s a good, craftsmanlike bit of work. But then… things got weird.
Tue 2020-Nov-24: Some sense about vaccines from Hank Green
Hank Green (notable web producer, author, and master of miscellany) recorded his weekly vlog to his brother about whether he would take a COVID vaccine. Roughly: “oh hell yeah!” (though far more entertainingly).
Wed 2020-Nov-18: On COVID vaccine protection persistence
Everybody’s worried about how long the protection from a COVID vaccine will last, whether there can be reinfections, and so on. How much do we actually know about that as of now?
Mon 2020-Nov-16: Moderna/Lonza vaccine interim readout: 95% efficacy!
Today the Moderna/Lonza vaccine trial vaccine trial gave its first interim readout: 95% efficacy! Also, 100% prevention of severe cases of COVID-19. Like last week’s Pfizer/BioNTech interim readout, this is again unabashedly good news.
Mon 2020-Nov-09: Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine interim readout: 90% efficacy!
Today the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine trial gave its first interim readout: 90% efficacy. This is unabashedly good news.
Wed 2020-Nov-04: Wastewater coronavirus RNA vs medical loads
Previously, we mentioned there were data showing the level of coronavirus RNA in metro Boston wastewater, and speculated that it might be predictive of medical loads like hospitalization and death rates. The truth turns out to be weirder than that (comme d’habitude).
Mon 2020-Nov-02: Coronavirus & Elections: The Winter of Our Discontent
The election is coming, with a possibility of right-wing violence and subversion. COVID-19 is forming up for another wave of infections. Winter is coming. It’s terrifying, but there are some things you can do.
Thu 2020-Oct-15: Statins & ACE inhibitors & ARB blockers as COVID-19 therapeutics?
Somebody asked me (honest!) about a news item linking improved treatment outcomes for COVID-19 with patients using statin and ACE inhibitor drugs. Very preliminary stuff, and the effect size is not giant, but it is peer-reviewed and looks quite legit. Not gonna change the world, but even small bits of good news are welcome.
Wed 2020-Sep-23: COVID points of hope and evaluating a vaccine
Looking for a glimmer of hope amid the COVID clouds? Worried about whether a vaccine will be appropriately safe & effective? You’ve come to the right place.
Wed 2020-Sep-02: What's in the Moderna Q2 earnings call?
Somebody asked me (different “somebody” this time, though the same subject) about the Moderna Q2 earnings call. Do I look like I know the answer to questions like that?! On close inspection, though, it looks like a python swallowing a pig: a smallish company tackling a big problem with COVID vaccines.
Sat 2020-Aug-01: What's happening in the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine phase 3 start?
Somebody asked me (really it’s the same “somebody” behind all of these) about the Moderna COVID vaccine phase 3 start. Basically, it looks like the start of a reasonably designed Phase 3 trial: the beginning of a long slog to test safety & efficacy.
Wed 2020-Jul-15: What's in the Phase 1/2 readout of the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine?
Ok, so I finally tracked down the official Phase 1/2 readout of the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine (whose Phase 3 delay we commented on about 10 days ago). Here are some quick thoughts, but the top line seems to be very good.
Sun 2020-Jul-05: And what about the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine Phase 3 delay?
Somebody asked me — same troublemakers, in case you’re curious — about whether the Moderna/Lonza Phase 1/2 vaccine trial looked reasonable and if the delay of Phase 3 start for a protocol amendment was reasonable. Sure seems so! No, it’s not an investment signal.
Sat 2020-Jul-04: What's in the Phase 1/2 readout of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID vaccine?
Somebody asked me what’s in the Phase 1/2 readout of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID vaccine. Of course they wanted to know about the trial results, but they also wanted to know if it is an investment signal. It is not.

Food:

Thu 2024-Jul-04: 2024-July-04
So… the 4th of July, here in the US?
Tue 2023-Mar-14: Pi Day 2023
Today is Pi Day (3/14) in 2023. Sort of.
Fri 2022-Oct-07: Greetings from Japan
We finally got to return to Japan to visit the Weekend Editrix’s mother!
Sat 2022-May-28: The Outer Limits of Chocolate Art
Have you ever eaten a giraffe?
Thu 2022-Apr-28: Weekend Editrix Shot For the 7th Time
Today the Weekend Editrix got shot for the 7th time in the trailing 12 months, having gotten her 2nd booster for COVID-19.
Thu 2022-Apr-14: Passover & Late-Stage Capitalism
So, it’s Passover. What might late-stage capitalism have to say about that?
Tue 2021-Oct-05: The Man Who Wins New England Autumn
Today I learned of a hero, engaged in a Great Work that is clearly a service to all humanity. Oh, and there were donuts, too.
Thu 2021-Sep-02: Are we wasting too much COVID-19 vaccine?
Today comes news that we’ve wasted about 15.1 million doses of COVID-19 doses here in the US. Is that a lot, or a little? How does it compare with history? Is the difference, if any, just random or is it real, i.e., statistically significant?

Investing:

Sat 2024-Dec-14: Against Lotteries
Years ago, somebody asked me (an office mate, actually) about lottery tickets when the return was positive. Generally, lottery tickets are meant to lose money for you on average. So speaking only of money, you shouldn’t buy them. But once in a long while, they have a positive expected return. Should you buy one of those? Still no.
Tue 2024-May-07: On Taxing the Rich
It’s easy for the rich to avoid taxation in the US – it appears that the 400 richest Americans now have an effective tax rate below that of the bottom half of income earners. How unusual is this?
Mon 2024-Apr-01: On 'Affording' the Rich
Can we afford to live in a world with billionaires? It seems not!
Fri 2023-Aug-04: US Political Parties & Economic Results
People in the US keep saying, over and over: “Republicans are good for the economy”. But what does the data say?
Fri 2022-Jul-01: Retirement: 2 Years In, And …
It seems I’ve been retired for 2 years now. What can 2 years of perspective tell us?
Sat 2021-Jun-19: The Weekend Retirement Portfolio
After reading my rant on the superiority of Treasury bonds vs corporate bonds as a stock diversifier, of course somebody asked me what the retirement portfolio of the denizens of Chez Weekend looked like. Basically: index funds, heavily diversified across bond types, stock sizes, valuations, and nations.
Mon 2021-Jun-07: Stock Diversifiers: Treasury vs Corporate Bonds?
If you invest in US stocks, you certainly want to diversify with some bonds for risk control, availability of funds for rebalancing, and earning some income. Should you use Treasury bonds (which earn approximately nothing, but are safe) or corporate bonds (which earn something, but are riskier)?
Tue 2021-Jun-01: Bayes Rule vs The Millionaire Next Door
Somebody asked me (back in 2012!) about the famous book, The Millionaire Next Door. It’s good as far as it goes; it just doesn’t go nearly as far as almost everybody thinks!

JournalClub:

Fri 2024-Sep-06: Elections, Fairness Gaps, and Age Gaps
The US is undemocratic in a variety of ways, favoring older voters and very old politicians among them. That might be about to change.
Sat 2024-Aug-17: Does Education Help Against Anti-Semitism?
Does more education help in prying people loose from antisemitism? Frustratingly, “it depends.”
Thu 2024-Jul-11: Good News on HIV Prevention
Good news on preliminary Phase 3 readout of lenacapavir: 100% efficacy in preventing infection!
Sat 2024-Jun-22: AI Large Lanuage Models: Still a BS Firehose
Somebody asked me, in the course of a family video call, what I thought about the latest AI Large Language Models (LLMs) and how they’re being used for everything. Have they improved from their previous BS conditions? Ahem. Uh… no.
Fri 2024-Jun-21: Addendum to FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition for Fall 2024
There’s an addendum to the post FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition for Fall 2024, about the FDA’s override of the VRBPAC to specify the KP.2 strain for this fall’s COVID-19 vaccine.
Wed 2024-Jun-05: FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition for Fall 2024
Today the US FDA’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to discuss the composition of COVID-19 booster vaccines for fall 2024. Let’s check out the science content.
Mon 2024-Apr-29: Death Rates Under Democrats & Republicans
Does the party in power in the US White House affect violent death rates? Apparently so!
Fri 2024-Apr-12: When Book Reviews Grow Fangs
Usually, academic book reviews are a genteel and polite affair, at worst damning with faint praise. Usually… but not always!
Mon 2024-Apr-01: On 'Affording' the Rich
Can we afford to live in a world with billionaires? It seems not!
Wed 2024-Mar-27: On Detecting Academic Papers with AI-Written Content
AI-written content is beginning to pollute everything, now including the academic literature. Can it be detected? For now, yes; long term, probably not.
Wed 2024-Feb-28: US CDC ACIP Meeting: COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Today the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) met, to decide recommendations on COVID-19 vaccines for 2024. Let’s go see what went down.
Fri 2023-Jul-28: High $T_c$ Superconductors at Last?!
Last Saturday, 2022-Jun-22, two preprints from Korean physicists dropped on ar$\chi$iv. They claim room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductivity in a chemically relatively non-exotic material. Let’s see what they’ve got.
Thu 2023-Jul-06: COVID-19 mRNA in Boston Wastewater
Some good news: Boston COVID-19 wastewater levels were at (and now slightly above) the 2-year low.
Fri 2023-Jan-27: FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition Going Forward
The FDA VRBPAC (Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee) met this week to discuss the composition of vaccines going forward. In particular, should we consolidate on a series of bivalent shots instead of the current mixture of old and new?
Mon 2022-Nov-21: The Weekend Editrix's Flu & Bivalent Booster Adventures (And Why She Went Through Them)
Today the Weekend Editrix got her annual flu vax and COVID-19 bivalent booster. Let’s look at why that’s a good idea for all of us.
Mon 2022-Oct-24: Paxlovid in the Wild Redux
What do we know about the people for whom paxlovid works really well?
Tue 2022-Oct-18: On COVID-19 Antivirals: Real-World Experience
Our newest COVID-19 antiviral medicines, molnupiravir and paxlovid, have been out for a while now. What’s the real-world experience on efficacy?
Fri 2022-Sep-23: New SARS-CoV2 Variants… Again!
Tired of COVID-19? Me too. But… apparently the SARS-CoV2 virus is not yet tired of us!
Sat 2022-Sep-10: On Timing the Next Bivalent Booster for Omicron COVID-19
Somebody asked me when we’d be getting the new bivalent COVID-19 boosters. (Not if but when.) Since we’ve both recently had COVID-19, that requires a bit of a think.
Tue 2022-Sep-06: Nucleocapsid Abs & Severe COVID-19
Somebody asked me a couple months ago about the significance of high nucleocapsid antibodies in unvaccinated people compared to the vaccinated. Now there’s another paper exploring the meaning of N ab levels. Let’s see what it says!
Thu 2022-Aug-04: COVID-19: Paxlovid Rebound, or COVID-19 Rebound?
Is “paxlovid rebound” because of paxlovid, or because there are just a lot of COVID-19 rebounds?
Wed 2022-Jul-20: Mysterious Fences and Varnished Onions
Two parables struck my eye this week: GK Chesterton’s Fence, and Primo Levi’s Onion in the Varnish. Do they counsel actions that are opposite, or the same?
Tue 2022-Jul-12: Is COVID-19 Omicron/BA.4-5 the Most Infectious Viral Disease in Human History?
Somebody asked me about how seriously we should take the COVID-19 Omicron/BA.4-5 variants, given that so many people are “done with COVID” and refuse to mask. Response: basically, we should take it very seriously; people without masks are being very silly. Silly in a deadly fashion, irresponsible to the health of the rest of us. To answer the titular question: yes, unfortunately, it appears so.
Thu 2022-Jun-23: On Biomarkers for Long COVID-19
Some crazy people are suspicious that Long COVID-19 is not a real thing. So we’re gratified here at Chez Weekend to find papers documenting some biomarkers for it that look pretty good!
Tue 2022-Jun-21: On the Efficacy of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been controversial: people continue to object loudly and strongly to things like masking, social distancing, and closures of schools and workplaces. We now have some retrospective data: how have each of those measures performed, in terms of live saved for the complaints they’ve caused?
Sun 2022-Jun-12: On the Lifetime of Conspiracies
The world is full of conspiracy theories, more than I recall ever being the case in the past, before social media. How reasonable is it to expect that a conspiracy can (a) depend on secrecy, (b) involve a large number of people, and (c) survive for more than a couple years? Not very, according to a probabilistic model!
Fri 2022-Jun-03: COVID-19: Immunity Types and Real Prevalence
Two questions: what do we know about disease-induced vs vaccine-induced immunity, and what is the actual prevalence of COVID-19 beyond “officially reported” cases? Now there’s some data to think about here, though we can’t completely answer those questions.
Thu 2022-Jun-02: Paxlovid in the Wild
An Israeli group has studied the use of paxlovid to treat COVID in a large group of age-stratified patients vs the SARS-CoV2 Omicron variant. The results are interesting, and a bit different from what I’d expected.
Tue 2022-May-03: How Can Evusheld Possibly Work?!
Evusheld is an antibody infusion which confers about 6 months of vaccine-like immunity to COVID-19. How can that possibly work, when antibodies last a few days to a few weeks?!
Sun 2022-May-01: It's Always Been 2 Americas for COVID-19
COVID-19 has brought to light a lot of disparities in the US. Today’s scientific paper is about just how certainly we know the Trumpy parts of the country, especially the South, were COVID-19 disasters: hundreds of thousands of excess deaths due to mask defiance, vaccine refusal, and malign conservative disinformation.
Mon 2022-Apr-18: Ivermectin vs Strongyloidiasis Paper Published
Somebody asked me about the evidence associating putative ivermectin effects with worms, not COVID-19. Seems like it’s been finally published!
Mon 2022-Mar-07: Ivermectin Revenant
Somebody asked about a recently published abstract comparing ivermectin vs remdesivir in treating COVID-19. (Sigh.)
Mon 2022-Feb-07: SARS-CoV2 Cryptic Sequences in NYC Wastewater: Why Not to Sleep Well at Night
As long as we’ve got our heads in the sewers, what else is happening with wastewater SARS-CoV2 analyses? It turns out, New York City rather alarmingly has some “cryptic sequences” not yet observed in humans. This is how the virus is scheming to throw another wave at us.
Thu 2022-Jan-06: Reeeeeeally long COVID!
How long can COVID-19 go on? If you answered less than $O(10^4)$ years until everyone with susceptible genes is dead… well, think again.
Fri 2021-Nov-19: A Couple Ivermectin Takedowns
The right-wing knuckleheadedness around ivermectin as a COVID-19 therapy continues to amaze me. This week I came across 2 ivermectin takedowns: a Malaysian clinical trial and Scott Alexander’s dissection of the ivmmeta.com metanalysis. Two thumbs down. Way down.
Tue 2021-Nov-09: On kids and vaccines: ending the pandemic
If you think we can end the pandemic without vaccinating kids because they tend not to get so sick… think again. Try harder this time.
Mon 2021-Nov-01: When Was the Norse Settlement at L'Anse aux Meadows in Newfoundland?
Hey, let’s think about something that’s not COVID-19! Like, for example: when exactly did the Norse settlement at L’Anse aux Meadows in Newfoundland happen?
Sat 2021-Oct-30: The Partisan Divide on COVID-19 Deaths
COVID-19 death rates in the US are nakedly partisan. So is mask resistance. So is delusional belief about nonsensical use of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine. Care to draw a conclusion?
Mon 2021-Oct-18: Vaccine Mandate Origins in the US
The history of why vaccine mandates are in fact constitutional in the United States has a long, somewhat twisted history. It’s also of local interest, here at Chez Weekend, as many of the important events transpired a short MBTA ride away.
Sun 2021-Aug-29: Vaccination vs Hospitalization Rates: Simpson's Paradox
Somebody asked me about why the vaccines are high efficacy with rare breakthrough infections, but we can see a high fraction of the hospitalized are vaccinated? Right, very puzzling. Then somebody else asked me what I thought of an article about Simpson’s paradox in the context of COVID. Ding, ding, ding, ding!
Wed 2021-Aug-18: COVID-19 Vaccines and Alzheimers: Analyzing the Myth
Somebody asked me about whether the COVID-19 vaccines prevented Alzheimers. Wait, what?
Tue 2021-Aug-17: COVID-19 Vaccines and Infertility: Analyzing the Myth
Somebody asked me about whether the COVID-19 vaccine could cause infertility. Wait, what?
Mon 2021-Jul-19: COVID-19 Vaccination is Better Than Natural Immunity
Periodically I meet people who think “natural” immunity from having had COVID-19 is somehow better than being vaccinated. A new Israeli study plumbs the depths of just how wrong that is.
Tue 2021-Jun-01: Bayes Rule vs The Millionaire Next Door
Somebody asked me (back in 2012!) about the famous book, The Millionaire Next Door. It’s good as far as it goes; it just doesn’t go nearly as far as almost everybody thinks!
Thu 2021-May-06: Good news on vaccines vs variants!
Some good news, for once: the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is now known to work quite well against the British & South African variants in the real world. Especially in preventing hospitalization and death.
Fri 2021-Apr-16: Another study of clotting and COVID vaccines
Another study has come out, comparing clotting risks of COVID-19 and various vaccines versus each other. What are the risks? And can we interpret the study the obvious way, or not?
Wed 2021-Mar-17: The AstraZeneca/Oxford Vaccine vs Blood Clots
Somebody asked me whether worries the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine and dangerous blood clotting seen in some patients were a real problem. You know what the anti-vaxxers are gonna say; what do the data say?
Sat 2021-Jan-16: Is 'natural' immunity any better than vaccine immunity to COVID-19?
Periodically, anti-vaxxers will say they prefer the ‘natural’ immunity acquired by recovering from a disease, because vaccines are ‘artificial’. Is that likely to be true for COVID-19? In a word: NO.
Thu 2020-Dec-31: The mutant coronavirus: will the vaccines still work?
Somebody asked me whether the COVID-19 vaccines currently being used would work vs the mutant form of SARS-CoV-2 now driving COVID-19 in the UK. Looks like it probably will, though nobody really knows. What will definitely work: masking, social distancing, working from home, no gatherings beyond a single household, having adequate food & medicine stored, getting a flu vaccination, and not being a super-spreader of misinformation.
Wed 2020-Nov-18: On COVID vaccine protection persistence
Everybody’s worried about how long the protection from a COVID vaccine will last, whether there can be reinfections, and so on. How much do we actually know about that as of now?
Thu 2020-Oct-15: Statins & ACE inhibitors & ARB blockers as COVID-19 therapeutics?
Somebody asked me (honest!) about a news item linking improved treatment outcomes for COVID-19 with patients using statin and ACE inhibitor drugs. Very preliminary stuff, and the effect size is not giant, but it is peer-reviewed and looks quite legit. Not gonna change the world, but even small bits of good news are welcome.

Math:

Sat 2024-Dec-14: Against Lotteries
Years ago, somebody asked me (an office mate, actually) about lottery tickets when the return was positive. Generally, lottery tickets are meant to lose money for you on average. So speaking only of money, you shouldn’t buy them. But once in a long while, they have a positive expected return. Should you buy one of those? Still no.
Thu 2024-Nov-07: On Certainty as Cognitive Injury
People who are absolutely certain about something kind of scare me.
Fri 2024-Apr-12: When Book Reviews Grow Fangs
Usually, academic book reviews are a genteel and polite affair, at worst damning with faint praise. Usually… but not always!
Thu 2024-Mar-14: Pi Day 2024
So… it’s Pi Day. Again. Didn’t we do this last year?
Thu 2024-Feb-29: A Better Leap Year
So, it’s Leap Year Day. Is the Gregorian calendar we use in any sense optimal?
Tue 2023-Mar-14: Pi Day 2023
Today is Pi Day (3/14) in 2023. Sort of.
Mon 2022-Dec-05: Two Trolley Problems
Today I found 2 interesting takes on the Trolley Problem.
Mon 2022-Oct-24: Paxlovid in the Wild Redux
What do we know about the people for whom paxlovid works really well?
Sun 2022-Jun-12: On the Lifetime of Conspiracies
The world is full of conspiracy theories, more than I recall ever being the case in the past, before social media. How reasonable is it to expect that a conspiracy can (a) depend on secrecy, (b) involve a large number of people, and (c) survive for more than a couple years? Not very, according to a probabilistic model!
Fri 2022-Jun-03: COVID-19: Immunity Types and Real Prevalence
Two questions: what do we know about disease-induced vs vaccine-induced immunity, and what is the actual prevalence of COVID-19 beyond “officially reported” cases? Now there’s some data to think about here, though we can’t completely answer those questions.
Thu 2022-Jun-02: Paxlovid in the Wild
An Israeli group has studied the use of paxlovid to treat COVID in a large group of age-stratified patients vs the SARS-CoV2 Omicron variant. The results are interesting, and a bit different from what I’d expected.
Mon 2022-Mar-14: Reflection on Pi Day
Today is Pi Day (3/14), so we reflect upon π.
Wed 2021-Dec-15: Tis the Season… of the Analemma
It’s that season again: the time of nerdly meditations on the analemma. The shortest day of the year, Dec 21, is yet to come. But for night owls, the day of earliest sunset (at the latitude of Château Weekend) was Dec 8th. How can that be? That’s the tale of the analemma!
Thu 2021-Dec-02: Mea Culpa: Efficacies Don't Average!
A couple days ago, commenting at TheZvi, I blithely averaged efficacies from the early and late cohorts of the molnupiravir trial. Fellow commenter Thomas pointed out that this is not correct! This post is a mea culpa and a lesson to myself on How to Do It Right.
Mon 2021-Nov-01: When Was the Norse Settlement at L'Anse aux Meadows in Newfoundland?
Hey, let’s think about something that’s not COVID-19! Like, for example: when exactly did the Norse settlement at L’Anse aux Meadows in Newfoundland happen?
Fri 2021-Oct-15: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for J&J and Mix/Match Boosters
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Johnson & Johnson/Janssen application for 2nd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine. They will also at least discuss the 3x3 mix-and-match booster study.
Thu 2021-Oct-14: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for Moderna Spikevax
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Moderna application for 3rd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. Wonderful name aside, there should be a good case to be made as well.
Fri 2021-Sep-17: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for Pfizer Comirnaty
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Pfizer/BioNTech application for 3rd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Opinion is divided, so there will be some arguing. I’m makin’ popcorn.
Mon 2021-Sep-13: On the ratio of Beta-distributed random variables
[Warning: Post contains full frontal nerdity. Bug reports appreciated!] I finally got a copy of Pham-Gia’s paper on the distribution of the ratio of 2 independent Beta-distributed random variables. While I still have some childhood trauma around hypergeometric functions like ${}_{2}F_{1}()$ and its even scarier big brother ${}_{3}F_{2}()$… it’s time to face my fears.
Sun 2021-Mar-14: Pi Day: Are you still using decimal notation?!
Today is Pi Day (3/14). You’re not still using decimal, are you?
Mon 2020-Dec-21: Winter solstice, Dodds's Day, and the Weekend Editrix's Day
Today is the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year in the northern hemisphere. It is not, however, the day of earliest sunset (of interest to night owls). Nor is it the day of latest sunrise (of interest to morning… people). Therein lies the tale of the analemma, first told to me long ago by a marvelous former colleague, Doug Dodds.
Fri 2020-Aug-07: What's that stupid avatar?
Somebody asked me, “What’s that stupid avatar on your blog?” It’s a reminder that even simple questions show infinite complexity if you look closely enough. And sometimes even if you don’t!
Mon 2020-Jul-20: Math test post
Just seeing if I can make the math typesetting work. Nothing to see here, kid… move along.
Sat 2020-Jul-18: Lord Kelvin on quantitative knowledge
Qualitative knowledge is real, but… quantitative knowledge is almost always better.

MathInTheNews:

Wed 2024-Dec-11: 2022 Tech Layoffs: Gender Bias?
Somebody asked me – ok, really I saw it on Mastodon, but close enough – about gender bias in the tech layoff cycle of 2022. Is it really true that women were targeted?
Thu 2024-Dec-05: US Political Parties and the Budget Deficit
Previously, we looked at the party control of the 3 US government branches and their effect on the economy. We unaccountably left out the budget deficit, so let’s have a look at that: Republicans are commonly thought to be good for the budget, but are they really?
Fri 2024-Nov-22: US House of Representatives: The Arithmetic of the Wyoming Rule
Over dinner a few days ago, we were talking about about whether the Wyoming Rule would fix some of the bias in the Electoral College. The ‘Wyoming Rule’ is a proposal to make the US House of Representatives more representative of people, not territory. How might the arithmetic work out for which party gets more seats?
Tue 2024-Nov-05: Election Night 2024
So… election night it is, then?
Mon 2024-Nov-04: Ukraine War: 700k Russian Dead
The Russian dedication to killing their own military has staggered past another milestone: 700,000 Russian dead.
Mon 2024-Oct-28: US Political Parties and the Economy
Does it matter, economically speaking, which US party holds the Presidency, Senate, and House? Maybe not the way you think! The last 50 years of evidence implies Republicans are associated with worse inflation and unemployment. It is false that Republicans are better on the economy. That myth needs to die.
Fri 2024-Sep-06: Elections, Fairness Gaps, and Age Gaps
The US is undemocratic in a variety of ways, favoring older voters and very old politicians among them. That might be about to change.
Tue 2024-Aug-27: Ukraine: 600k Russian Dead
The Russian invasion of Ukraine passed another milestone: 600,000 Russian dead (and counting).
Thu 2024-Aug-22: US Election 2024 Certification Warnings
Republicans are planning now to refuse certification of the 2024 election results.
Mon 2024-Aug-05: The Innumeracy of the Rulers
Have you ever wondered just how mathematically illiterate our rulers really are? Buckle up, Buttercup: it’s worse than you think.
Thu 2024-Jul-11: Good News on HIV Prevention
Good news on preliminary Phase 3 readout of lenacapavir: 100% efficacy in preventing infection!
Fri 2024-May-31: Post-Memorial Day Thought: 500k Russian Dead in Ukraine
A post-Memorial Day thought: Russian casualties in Ukraine are now more than half a million dead.
Tue 2024-May-07: On Taxing the Rich
It’s easy for the rich to avoid taxation in the US – it appears that the 400 richest Americans now have an effective tax rate below that of the bottom half of income earners. How unusual is this?
Mon 2024-Apr-29: Death Rates Under Democrats & Republicans
Does the party in power in the US White House affect violent death rates? Apparently so!
Wed 2024-Apr-10: Casualties in Ukraine: Grief Piles Higher & Deeper
The Russian invasion of Ukraine just keeps getting worse. Predictably.
Tue 2024-Apr-02: Springtime for Shutdowns II: A Bayesian Coda
A little Bayesian coda on confidence limits for the probability of a government shutdown, given a Republican house.
Mon 2024-Apr-01: On 'Affording' the Rich
Can we afford to live in a world with billionaires? It seems not!
Wed 2024-Mar-27: On Detecting Academic Papers with AI-Written Content
AI-written content is beginning to pollute everything, now including the academic literature. Can it be detected? For now, yes; long term, probably not.
Thu 2024-Mar-21: Springtime for Shutdowns
It’s springtime! That means Republicans in the US want to shut down the federal government. Or does it? Let’s look at some data, and find out.
Tue 2024-Mar-19: Thoughts On Surgery
Yesterday I had some surgery. Today, after (mostly) processing the drugs, it’s time to take stock of the experience.
Tue 2024-Mar-12: Happily Getting Yet Another COVID-19 Booster
Yesterday I got my 8th COVID-19 booster. It was ok!
Wed 2024-Feb-28: US CDC ACIP Meeting: COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Today the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) met, to decide recommendations on COVID-19 vaccines for 2024. Let’s go see what went down.
Tue 2024-Feb-27: Does Trump Pose a Danger to Courts, Jurors, and Witnesses?
Trump is facing a gag order in his NY trial, on the basis that he has previously threatened judges, clerks, attorneys, witnesses and jurors – including death threats. While this is obviously true, do we have objective evidence that this is the case? Why, yes: yes, we do.
Mon 2023-Aug-07: Ukraine Invasion: 250k Russian Dead
Sometimes the news is so inevitable and sad that all we can do is bear witness and mourn.
Fri 2023-Aug-04: US Political Parties & Economic Results
People in the US keep saying, over and over: “Republicans are good for the economy”. But what does the data say?
Thu 2023-Jul-06: COVID-19 mRNA in Boston Wastewater
Some good news: Boston COVID-19 wastewater levels were at (and now slightly above) the 2-year low.
Mon 2023-Jun-12: US Executive Branch Criminal Indictments, Broken Down by Party
Do Democratic or Republican presidencies in the US result in more executive branch criminal indictments per year in office? We all think we know, but let’s consult the data.
Wed 2023-May-17: Updated${}^3$: Ukrainian Estimates of Russian Casualties Hit 200k
Today the world reached yet another grim milestone in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Tue 2023-May-09: Updated Update: Ukrainian Estimates of Russian Casualties
We’ve (again) updated our estimate of when Russian casualties will reach 200k, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s published data. This time with an improved (though not perfect) prediction method.
Mon 2023-May-01: Update: Ukrainian Estimates of Russian Casualties
We’ve updated our estimate of when Russian casualties will reach 200k, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s published data.
Sat 2023-Apr-15: Do the Ukrainian Reports of Russian Casualties Make Sense?
Somebody asked me what to make of the Russian casualty statistics that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence posts on Twitter every day. Two tentative conclusions: the data look a bit odd in spots (perhaps an artifact of how they collect it), and the Russians are losing soldiers and tanks at a sustained, alarming rate.
Thu 2023-Mar-02: Another Grim Anniversary
As if the world weren’t bad enough, today there’s evidence that Russian casualties in Ukraine have topped 150,000 dead.
Tue 2023-Feb-14: On the Base Rate Fallacy, Redux
Will we ever not be trapped by the base rate fallacy?
Sat 2022-Nov-12: Some Good News About COVID-19
We just may be turning the corner.
Tue 2022-Sep-20: On the Reproducibility of Twitter Polls
Everybody knows Twitter polls are… questionable. But are they reproducible?
Thu 2022-Aug-04: COVID-19: Paxlovid Rebound, or COVID-19 Rebound?
Is “paxlovid rebound” because of paxlovid, or because there are just a lot of COVID-19 rebounds?
Tue 2022-Jul-12: Is COVID-19 Omicron/BA.4-5 the Most Infectious Viral Disease in Human History?
Somebody asked me about how seriously we should take the COVID-19 Omicron/BA.4-5 variants, given that so many people are “done with COVID” and refuse to mask. Response: basically, we should take it very seriously; people without masks are being very silly. Silly in a deadly fashion, irresponsible to the health of the rest of us. To answer the titular question: yes, unfortunately, it appears so.
Tue 2022-Jun-28: FDA VRBPAC: Omicron-Specific COVID-19 Boosters?
Today the FDA’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to consider whether to add Omicron-specific vaccines to the mix, and how that policy should be set. Wanna read along to see what they do?
Thu 2022-Jun-23: On Biomarkers for Long COVID-19
Some crazy people are suspicious that Long COVID-19 is not a real thing. So we’re gratified here at Chez Weekend to find papers documenting some biomarkers for it that look pretty good!
Tue 2022-Jun-21: On the Efficacy of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been controversial: people continue to object loudly and strongly to things like masking, social distancing, and closures of schools and workplaces. We now have some retrospective data: how have each of those measures performed, in terms of live saved for the complaints they’ve caused?
Sun 2022-Jun-12: On the Lifetime of Conspiracies
The world is full of conspiracy theories, more than I recall ever being the case in the past, before social media. How reasonable is it to expect that a conspiracy can (a) depend on secrecy, (b) involve a large number of people, and (c) survive for more than a couple years? Not very, according to a probabilistic model!
Wed 2022-May-18: COVID-19: Officially 1 Million US Dead
[Tone warning: Angry post.] We reached yesterday a grim and disgraceful milestone in the US, having at least 1 million COVID-19 dead. And that’s just the official count.
Wed 2022-May-11: Which Arm Gets the Booster?
A burning question for everybody who’s gotten a booster, or wants one: the same arm, or the other arm?
Sun 2022-May-08: The Highest-Vaccination Ethnic Group in the US, Redux
Remember last year when we noted the highest-vaccination ethnic group in the US? They’re still winning, and it shows in the statistics.
Tue 2022-May-03: How Can Evusheld Possibly Work?!
Evusheld is an antibody infusion which confers about 6 months of vaccine-like immunity to COVID-19. How can that possibly work, when antibodies last a few days to a few weeks?!
Mon 2022-May-02: No Masks + New Wave = ?
Somehow we’ve stumbled into striking down mask mandates. Who did that? AND is it ok, with the next wave situation of SARS-CoV2? Do you even have to guess?
Sun 2022-May-01: It's Always Been 2 Americas for COVID-19
COVID-19 has brought to light a lot of disparities in the US. Today’s scientific paper is about just how certainly we know the Trumpy parts of the country, especially the South, were COVID-19 disasters: hundreds of thousands of excess deaths due to mask defiance, vaccine refusal, and malign conservative disinformation.
Mon 2022-Apr-18: Ivermectin vs Strongyloidiasis Paper Published
Somebody asked me about the evidence associating putative ivermectin effects with worms, not COVID-19. Seems like it’s been finally published!
Fri 2022-Apr-01: Today: Shot for the 7th time
Today I got my 7th vaccination shot in the last 12 months. Happily.
Fri 2022-Mar-18: COVID-19: Lessons Learned & Another Booster
We would like to think we’ve learned a few things from our collective COVID-19 experience, but the evidence is somewhat equivocal. What we’ve definitely learned is that there will almost certainly be another booster.
Wed 2022-Mar-09: Rethinking NPIs and Vaccinations
People are clamoring for an end to “restrictions”, by which they mean masks and closures. And, of course, vaccination mandates. They’re eager to be done with COVID-19, whether COVID-19 is done with them or not. Does any of that make sense? Well… some of it… maybe.
Wed 2022-Feb-09: On the Moderna Monkey Trial of Omicron-Specific Boosters
Somebody asked me about a report that Moderna’s monkey trial of an Omicron-specific booster wasn’t any better than the existing vaccine. What should we think about that?
Fri 2022-Feb-04: Boston Wastewater Re-Re-Visited: Sewage Viral RNA vs COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
In 2020-November and 2021-May, we looked at the SARS-CoV2 mRNA in Boston wastewater. It’s relation to medical loads was erratic. How’s it look with another 9 months of data?
Fri 2022-Jan-28: The Ten Billionth Dose
There have now been around 10 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses given. What should we make of that?
Tue 2021-Dec-14: Veni, veni paxlovid!
Today Pfizer announced they’ve submitted the final data package to the FDA for their COVID-19 anti-viral oral therapy, paxlovid. Wanna take a look at the (scant) data we have so far, as a holiday gift of sorts to all of humanity?
Mon 2021-Dec-06: Omicron vs Delta
Will the Omicron variant outcompete Delta? Starting to look like it. Will that be a bad thing? Dunno, could go either way depending on reinfection rate and severity.
Thu 2021-Dec-02: Mea Culpa: Efficacies Don't Average!
A couple days ago, commenting at TheZvi, I blithely averaged efficacies from the early and late cohorts of the molnupiravir trial. Fellow commenter Thomas pointed out that this is not correct! This post is a mea culpa and a lesson to myself on How to Do It Right.
Tue 2021-Nov-30: FDA AMDAC Considers Merck's Molnupiravir
Today the FDA’s Antimicrobial Drugs Advisory Committee (AMDAC) meets to decide whether or not to recommend emergency use authorization (EUA) of Merck’s molnupiravir, and antiviral therapy for mild to moderate COVID-19 in adults. Wanna read along?
Sat 2021-Nov-27: So, nu? (I mean… So, omicron?)
There’s a new SARS-CoV2 variant. How bad does it look? Nobody really knows, but it’s got the potential to be very, very bad.
Tue 2021-Nov-23: COVID-19: Is it 'over'?
With vaccination rates rising (albeit glacially slowly), and new therapeutics like molnupiravir and paxlovid about to be approved, people are asking: is it over? My take is: probably not.
Fri 2021-Nov-19: A Couple Ivermectin Takedowns
The right-wing knuckleheadedness around ivermectin as a COVID-19 therapy continues to amaze me. This week I came across 2 ivermectin takedowns: a Malaysian clinical trial and Scott Alexander’s dissection of the ivmmeta.com metanalysis. Two thumbs down. Way down.
Fri 2021-Nov-12: On New COVID-19 Therapeutics
Vaccines are great, but now there are some exciting new treatments for COVID-19, in case you get a breakthrough infection (or made the wrong choice about accepting vaccination). Let’s look at how well they work, and what they might cost in comparison to other things.
Tue 2021-Oct-26: FDA VRBPAC Considers Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine for Kids 5 – 11
Today the FDA’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) meets to discuss an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty for children ages 5 – 11. Lots of parents have been awaiting this for the last year and a half, with varying degress of frayed nerves.
Fri 2021-Oct-15: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for J&J and Mix/Match Boosters
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Johnson & Johnson/Janssen application for 2nd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine. They will also at least discuss the 3x3 mix-and-match booster study.
Thu 2021-Oct-14: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for Moderna Spikevax
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Moderna application for 3rd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. Wonderful name aside, there should be a good case to be made as well.
Mon 2021-Oct-04: COVID-19 Miscellany
Do you want the good news first?
Fri 2021-Sep-17: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for Pfizer Comirnaty
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Pfizer/BioNTech application for 3rd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Opinion is divided, so there will be some arguing. I’m makin’ popcorn.
Thu 2021-Sep-02: Are we wasting too much COVID-19 vaccine?
Today comes news that we’ve wasted about 15.1 million doses of COVID-19 doses here in the US. Is that a lot, or a little? How does it compare with history? Is the difference, if any, just random or is it real, i.e., statistically significant?
Sun 2021-Aug-29: Vaccination vs Hospitalization Rates: Simpson's Paradox
Somebody asked me about why the vaccines are high efficacy with rare breakthrough infections, but we can see a high fraction of the hospitalized are vaccinated? Right, very puzzling. Then somebody else asked me what I thought of an article about Simpson’s paradox in the context of COVID. Ding, ding, ding, ding!
Wed 2021-Aug-18: COVID-19 Vaccines and Alzheimers: Analyzing the Myth
Somebody asked me about whether the COVID-19 vaccines prevented Alzheimers. Wait, what?
Tue 2021-Aug-17: COVID-19 Vaccines and Infertility: Analyzing the Myth
Somebody asked me about whether the COVID-19 vaccine could cause infertility. Wait, what?
Wed 2021-Aug-04: Vaccine Efficacy, Delta Variant, and the CDC Changes
Last week several bombs were dropped: COVID vaccine efficacy with the Delta variant, breakthrough infections, asymptomatic carriers, and changes in CDC guidelines. Was the panicky media coverage at all useful?
Mon 2021-Jul-19: COVID-19 Vaccination is Better Than Natural Immunity
Periodically I meet people who think “natural” immunity from having had COVID-19 is somehow better than being vaccinated. A new Israeli study plumbs the depths of just how wrong that is.
Fri 2021-Jul-16: The Highest-Vaccination Ethnic Group in the US
What ethnic group in the US do you think has the highest vaccination rate?
Mon 2021-Jul-12: Thoughts on Variants & Vaccines
The variants are starting to pile up. Unless we vaccinate everybody faster, there are going to be variants which evade vaccines and then we start all over. How close are we to that?
Tue 2021-Jul-06: Vaccinations vs Votes
Back in April, we did some statistical analysis showing Trumpy states tended to have dramatically lower vaccination rates. Is that still the case? Regrettably, yes: more than ever.
Mon 2021-Jun-07: Stock Diversifiers: Treasury vs Corporate Bonds?
If you invest in US stocks, you certainly want to diversify with some bonds for risk control, availability of funds for rebalancing, and earning some income. Should you use Treasury bonds (which earn approximately nothing, but are safe) or corporate bonds (which earn something, but are riskier)?
Tue 2021-Jun-01: Bayes Rule vs The Millionaire Next Door
Somebody asked me (back in 2012!) about the famous book, The Millionaire Next Door. It’s good as far as it goes; it just doesn’t go nearly as far as almost everybody thinks!
Fri 2021-May-21: Wastewater Revisited: Metagenomic Viral RNA and Medical Loads
Last November, we looked at metagenomics of sewage SARS-CoV-2 RNA vs medical loads in Boston. The results then were inconclusive. There’s a lot more data now. Does the mRNA in sewage actually predict anything useful about COVID hospital admission, ICU admission, ventilator use, and death? Yes, it does.
Thu 2021-May-06: Good news on vaccines vs variants!
Some good news, for once: the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is now known to work quite well against the British & South African variants in the real world. Especially in preventing hospitalization and death.
Sat 2021-Apr-24: The Billionth Dose
As of yesterday, we passed a remarkable milestone: the billionth COVID-19 vaccination dose has been administered.
Fri 2021-Apr-23: JnJ Revenant
Today the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) today recommended restoring use of the JnJ COVID-19 vaccine with warnings, and thrombosis treatment guidelines for clinicians. The CDC & FDA agreed, and lifted the restrictions. This seems to be very much the correct conclusion, albeit one arrived at far too slowly.
Mon 2021-Apr-19: Politics vs mask use & vaccine uptake in the US
Does political alignment in the US inform medically-relevant behaviors like mask use and vaccine uptake? Alas, yes: but not in a good way.
Fri 2021-Apr-16: Another study of clotting and COVID vaccines
Another study has come out, comparing clotting risks of COVID-19 and various vaccines versus each other. What are the risks? And can we interpret the study the obvious way, or not?
Tue 2021-Apr-13: US pauses JnJ vaccine on thromboses
Today the US regulatory agencies “paused” the use of the JnJ COVID-19 vaccine to investigate thromboses, similar to what’s been seen with the AZ/OX vaccine. How many, how bad, and what will a pause do?
Thu 2021-Apr-08: Reading the RNA in the Pfizer & Moderna vaccines
Have you ever wondered if you could make sense of the RNA code in the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, if you could just read it? With some help, you can now do exactly that.
Mon 2021-Mar-22: The pandemic year in retrospect
Time for perspective: we’ve been stuck in a pandemic for a year now. What’s the best summary of your experience?
Wed 2021-Mar-17: The AstraZeneca/Oxford Vaccine vs Blood Clots
Somebody asked me whether worries the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine and dangerous blood clotting seen in some patients were a real problem. You know what the anti-vaxxers are gonna say; what do the data say?
Mon 2021-Mar-15: US Senate: does one party filibuster more?
Sen McConnell claims the Democrats abuse the filibuster! (Because of course he does.) But what do the data say?
Wed 2021-Mar-10: Republicans vs Herd Immunity
If a large enough clade of US persons refuse COVID-19 vaccination, herd immunity may never be reached. Right now in the US, that clade seems to be White Republicans. (World-wide, it’s of course more complicated.)
Wed 2021-Feb-24: Why did Republicans block a Trump impeachment guilty verdict?
It’s been a couple weeks, so we’ve all calmed down a little. But still… why did 43 Republican senators vote to block the obvious guilty verdict in Trump’s impeachment?
Thu 2021-Feb-11: Impeachment actions: sine qua non
So. US politics: it seems The Creature is being impeached. Again. What can we do to make sure the impeachment makes a difference this time?
Mon 2021-Feb-01: COVID-19 vaccines: the need for speed
Vaccine rollouts worldwide, with very few exceptions, have been slow & bungled. But we face a cruel equation: delay = death. Why do we tolerate this?
Sat 2021-Jan-16: Is 'natural' immunity any better than vaccine immunity to COVID-19?
Periodically, anti-vaxxers will say they prefer the ‘natural’ immunity acquired by recovering from a disease, because vaccines are ‘artificial’. Is that likely to be true for COVID-19? In a word: NO.
Thu 2021-Jan-14: COVID-19 loves Republican politicians
Suppose you had 2 groups of politicians, but one of them thought a pandemic was “fake news”, refused to wear masks, congregated indoors with no social distancing, blocked public health spending, mocked public health guidance, was proud of their ignorance, and were just in general jerks about the subject. Do you think they’d get infected with the disease more often than their opponents?
Sun 2021-Jan-03: Formal scientific publication of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine Phase 3 trial
On 2020-Dec-30, the formal scientific publication of the Moderna’s COVID-19 Phase 3 trail in the prestigious New Englad Journal of Medicine dropped into public view. It’s good.
Thu 2020-Dec-31: The mutant coronavirus: will the vaccines still work?
Somebody asked me whether the COVID-19 vaccines currently being used would work vs the mutant form of SARS-CoV-2 now driving COVID-19 in the UK. Looks like it probably will, though nobody really knows. What will definitely work: masking, social distancing, working from home, no gatherings beyond a single household, having adequate food & medicine stored, getting a flu vaccination, and not being a super-spreader of misinformation.
Wed 2020-Dec-30: Serious adverse event frequency: about like getting struck by lightning?
Explaining to COVID vaccine clinical trial participants that the probability of a certain serious adverse event is 1/50,000 or less doesn’t work. Most people instantly stop listening at the slightest whiff of mathematics, including ordinary numbers. But if you compare it to being struck by lightning, that makes sense to most people. Can you guess what happened next?
Mon 2020-Dec-28: You're scaring me
You all are scaring me, with your science denying, mask refusing, socially close quarters, holiday travelling ways. C’mon: wear a mask, socially distance, avoid indoor gatherings, get a flu shot. At least pretend to try you want to live until the vaccine is available, ok? Then maybe you won’t randomly kill the rest of us, who do want to live.
Fri 2020-Dec-18: XKCD explains it all
Randall Munroe, the mad cartoonist behind XKCD, explains COVID-19 vaccine approvals. And channels Lord Rutherford. Simultaneously.
Tue 2020-Dec-15: Another beautiful vaccine: a look into the Moderna FDA EUA submission package
Somebody asked me about the contents of the Moderna EUA application for their COVID-19 vaccine. Summary: It is also quite beautiful.
Sat 2020-Dec-12: Are the Pfizer vaccine's efficacy confidence intervals sensible?
Somebody asked me about the confidence intervals Pfizer reported for vaccine efficacy in various age groups. Some of them are negative! Are they sensible?
Tue 2020-Dec-08: A beautiful vaccine: a look into the Pfizer/BioNTech FDA EUA submission package
Ok, nobody asked me this time, because for once I got out ahead of them. It seems Pfizer/BioNTech submitted an EUA (“emergency use authorization”) package to the FDA. What’s it look like?
Mon 2020-Nov-30: What size were the factions in the US election?
So we just had an election. You may have heard there were some rather sharply drawn sides. How big were each of the factions?
Fri 2020-Nov-27: AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine interim readout (and its discontents)
Somebody asked me about the early readout this week of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine Phase 3 trial. Initially they said 70% efficacy. It’s not a stunningly good 95% result like Pfizer or Moderna; still, it’s a good, craftsmanlike bit of work. But then… things got weird.
Wed 2020-Nov-18: On COVID vaccine protection persistence
Everybody’s worried about how long the protection from a COVID vaccine will last, whether there can be reinfections, and so on. How much do we actually know about that as of now?
Mon 2020-Nov-16: Moderna/Lonza vaccine interim readout: 95% efficacy!
Today the Moderna/Lonza vaccine trial vaccine trial gave its first interim readout: 95% efficacy! Also, 100% prevention of severe cases of COVID-19. Like last week’s Pfizer/BioNTech interim readout, this is again unabashedly good news.
Mon 2020-Nov-09: Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine interim readout: 90% efficacy!
Today the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine trial gave its first interim readout: 90% efficacy. This is unabashedly good news.
Wed 2020-Nov-04: Wastewater coronavirus RNA vs medical loads
Previously, we mentioned there were data showing the level of coronavirus RNA in metro Boston wastewater, and speculated that it might be predictive of medical loads like hospitalization and death rates. The truth turns out to be weirder than that (comme d’habitude).
Mon 2020-Nov-02: Coronavirus & Elections: The Winter of Our Discontent
The election is coming, with a possibility of right-wing violence and subversion. COVID-19 is forming up for another wave of infections. Winter is coming. It’s terrifying, but there are some things you can do.
Fri 2020-Oct-02: Election Night of the Living Beta Binomials
As you may have heard, the US is about to face an election more contentious than any since the Civil War. With vote counting likely drawn out due to right-wing mischief at, for example, the Post Office, what are we to make of partial returns as far as predicting the outcome? And will there be zombies?
Fri 2020-Jul-03: Is the racial makeup of the Boston Police Department unrepresentative?
Somebody asked me about this article in the Boston Globe by Vernal Coleman on the racial makeup of the Boston Police Department: does it resemble the community it polices?

MeaCulpa:

Sun 2024-May-19: The Spectrum Singers: Farewell to Music Director John Ehrlich
Saturday, we went to a concert by the Spectrum Singers in Cambridge, at the historic First Church Congregational. I was a little apprehensive about Schoenberg and Ives, but looked forward to the Vaughan Williams.
Wed 2024-Apr-03: A Sacred Moment
Today I experienced a sacred moment. Do you want to know more (homage à John Varley’s “Press Enter”)?
Wed 2024-Feb-14: Not Dead Yet
Somebody asked me if I’m dead, given the lack of posts here for 4 months. It’s not prima facie an unreasonable question.
Tue 2023-Jun-20: Personal Data Collection & Cookie Policies
This Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR) now has official personal data collection and cookie policies. You only think you don’t care about that.
Mon 2022-Nov-28: Blog Comments Temporarily Disabled
Comments on this Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR) are temporarily disabled, due to Heroku lossge.
Wed 2022-Nov-02: Two Things I Don't Understand
Sometimes there’s nothing to do but confess one’s own ignorance.
Fri 2022-Jun-17: Three Philosophers Walk Into a Bar
So Nietzsche, Machiavelli, and Dr. Seuss walk into a bar.
Tue 2022-Mar-01: Ukraine & Russia: A Lack of Thoughts
Somebody asked me why I haven’t said anything about the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Well…
Thu 2021-Dec-02: Mea Culpa: Efficacies Don't Average!
A couple days ago, commenting at TheZvi, I blithely averaged efficacies from the early and late cohorts of the molnupiravir trial. Fellow commenter Thomas pointed out that this is not correct! This post is a mea culpa and a lesson to myself on How to Do It Right.

NotableAndQuotable:

Fri 2024-Nov-01: An AI-Generated Podcast About This CLBTNR?!
Google has done a very silly thing: feed them some information, and they’ll make a podcast with 2 AI hosts ‘discussing’ it. We fed them this Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR). The results are… amusing?
Mon 2024-Sep-23: Best Political Ad Ever!
I just saw The Best Political Ad Ever. Most of them are terrible, but this one is warm, artful, and competent.
Wed 2024-Aug-21: Harris at the Democratic National Convention
So, Harris at the convention… I wonder how that’s going?
Sat 2024-Jun-22: AI Large Lanuage Models: Still a BS Firehose
Somebody asked me, in the course of a family video call, what I thought about the latest AI Large Language Models (LLMs) and how they’re being used for everything. Have they improved from their previous BS conditions? Ahem. Uh… no.
Mon 2024-May-27: Memorial Day 2024
Apparently, it’s Memorial Day in the US. Again. Seems like this happens every year, or something. Here at Château Weekend, we still have ambivalent feelings about it (as is the custom of our tribe).
Sat 2023-Sep-30: Long Time, No Blog?
So… long time, no blog, eh?
Wed 2023-Jul-19: Republicans: Mt Rushmore Is A 'Demonic Portal for Communism'
I am slowly learning never to ask how low Republicans can go in the US.
Fri 2023-Jun-16: Bloomsday!
Today is Bloomsday. Umm… what?
Wed 2023-Jun-14: On using ChatGPT for Peer Review
Somebody submitted a paper to a journal. The journal sent it out for peer review. A reviewer, skimping on their job, used ChatGPT to write the review. This went about as well as you probably think.
Sat 2023-Jun-10: Thinking While at the Symphony
Two nights ago, I was at Symphony Hall in Boston waiting for the Boston Pops to perform, when I saw that Trump was indicted. Clearly a big subject to wait for the next day, hence yesterday’s blog post. With that good news out of the way, let’s talk about what it’s like to go back to the symphony after years at home.
Mon 2023-May-29: Memorial Day 2023
Apparently, here in the US it’s Memorial Day again. What should we think about that? Well… a lot!
Thu 2023-May-25: Tacitus in Ukraine
One of the (few) advantages to having been steeped in old books during youth is you begin to realize how often we do the same dumb stuff, over and over, for centuries. This seems to be especially true in law, politics, economics, and war.
Tue 2023-Mar-28: Progress in Dark Times
Times are dark, but sometimes there are glimmers of progress.
Thu 2023-Mar-16: Schwarzenegger Reminds Us (Again) To Do Better
Arnold Schwarzenegger keeps making sense, even when nobody else does.
Wed 2023-Feb-15: On ChatGPT and Its Ilk
Somebody just summarized for me the exact nature of ChatGPT.
Tue 2023-Feb-07: Tripitaka Koreana
Today I learned about the Tripitaka Koreana: likely the most successful large data transfer over time in human history.
Wed 2022-Nov-09: Svante Pääbo Nobel Prize
The 2022 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine went to Svante Pääbo.
Sat 2022-Nov-05: Why Vote in 2022 in the US?
So, are you wondering if it’s worthwhile to bestir yourself to vote?
Mon 2022-Sep-26: Petrov Day #39: Again Celebrating the Day the World Did NOT End
Today the world still did not end, for the 39th time in a row.
Mon 2022-May-30: Memorial Day 2022
So, here in the US it’s Memorial Day. Again.
Sat 2022-Mar-19: Some Unexpected Inspiration on Russia & Ukraine
Today I came across an unexpected source of encouragement in the matter of Russia and Ukraine.
Mon 2022-Jan-17: MLK Day 2022
Today in the US is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, when we honor the civil rights advocate who pushed for rights for racial minorities and the poor, for which he was assassinated. How best should that honor be expressed?
Fri 2022-Jan-07: Tech Skepticism
It’s fashionable lately to be skeptical about technology. (Of everything, really.) Sometimes we don’t realize how deep are the roots of suspicion of innovation, and (usually) how wrong.
Sun 2021-Sep-26: Petrov Day #38: Remembering the Day the World Did NOT End
Today the world did not end. That’s 38 times in a row, now.
Sat 2021-Sep-11: On war memorials
Today marks 2 decades since the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in NYC, the Pentagon in DC, and a third target that was spared because airline passengers forced a crash in Shanksville, PA. It also marks, with the recent US withdrawal from Afghanistan, at least a winding down, though possibly not a complete ending, of 20 years of war. It’s time to think about war memorials… sort of.
Wed 2021-May-12: More sense about vaccines from Hank Green
Hank Green once again has one or two true and useful words to say to young people about COVID-19 vaccination.
Tue 2020-Nov-24: Some sense about vaccines from Hank Green
Hank Green (notable web producer, author, and master of miscellany) recorded his weekly vlog to his brother about whether he would take a COVID vaccine. Roughly: “oh hell yeah!” (though far more entertainingly).
Sat 2020-Sep-26: Petrov Day — The Day the World Didn't End
Today we commemorate 1983-Sep-26: the day Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov prevented the end the world. Go thou forth and do likewise: save as much of the world as you can.
Sat 2020-Jul-18: Lord Kelvin on quantitative knowledge
Qualitative knowledge is real, but… quantitative knowledge is almost always better.
Thu 2020-Jul-02: The Retirement of Iphegenia
Somebody asked me, “What’s your retirement plan?”

Obscurantism:

Fri 2024-Dec-06: Gruß von Krampus!
It’s that special time of year again… Krampusnacht!
Thu 2024-Nov-07: On Certainty as Cognitive Injury
People who are absolutely certain about something kind of scare me.
Sat 2024-Oct-05: Ogham in Harvard Square
A couple days ago, I saw something weird in Harvard Square. Nothing weird about that, right?
Thu 2024-Aug-22: US Election 2024 Certification Warnings
Republicans are planning now to refuse certification of the 2024 election results.
Thu 2024-May-02: DNS: An Improbable Medium for Humor
We members of the Nerd Tribe like our little jokes. The more obscure, requiring loads of intellectual context, the better. The DNS system is taking this one step further.
Wed 2024-Apr-03: A Sacred Moment
Today I experienced a sacred moment. Do you want to know more (homage à John Varley’s “Press Enter”)?
Thu 2024-Feb-29: A Better Leap Year
So, it’s Leap Year Day. Is the Gregorian calendar we use in any sense optimal?
Fri 2023-Jun-16: Bloomsday!
Today is Bloomsday. Umm… what?
Tue 2023-Jun-06: On Forgiving Witchcraft… Slooowly
Does anybody else wonder what’s going on in the heads of legislators who are “outlier” votes? Like, when a vote is 33-1, what’s that one guy thinking? Principled holdout, or just stubborn? (Or maybe not very bright?)
Thu 2023-May-25: Tacitus in Ukraine
One of the (few) advantages to having been steeped in old books during youth is you begin to realize how often we do the same dumb stuff, over and over, for centuries. This seems to be especially true in law, politics, economics, and war.
Tue 2023-Mar-14: Pi Day 2023
Today is Pi Day (3/14) in 2023. Sort of.
Thu 2023-Feb-09: The 2023 US State of the Union Address
Somebody asked me about Biden’s State of the Union address. *Sigh*…
Tue 2023-Feb-07: Tripitaka Koreana
Today I learned about the Tripitaka Koreana: likely the most successful large data transfer over time in human history.
Mon 2022-Dec-05: Two Trolley Problems
Today I found 2 interesting takes on the Trolley Problem.
Mon 2022-Nov-28: Blog Comments Temporarily Disabled
Comments on this Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR) are temporarily disabled, due to Heroku lossge.
Sat 2022-Nov-19: De-twitter-fying This Blog
It seems Twitter is dying. Time to armor plate this blog so quote tweets survive.
Wed 2022-Nov-02: Two Things I Don't Understand
Sometimes there’s nothing to do but confess one’s own ignorance.
Mon 2022-Sep-19: International Talk Like A Pirate Day, 2022
Today, September 19, is International Talk Like a Pirate Day!
Fri 2022-May-13: But What's in Your Heart?!
A plaintive cry I hear with regrettable frequency from non-science/non-math types is that we are all heartless. “But what’s really in your heart?!” they whine. Today, I’ll show you.
Sat 2022-Apr-16: The Perks of a PhD in Finland
Today I found out that I missed out a bit by getting my PhD anywhere but Finland.
Sat 2022-Mar-26: Headshot
Somebody asked me to put a headshot up on this crummy little blog that nobody reads (CLBTNR). No idea why, but…
Fri 2022-Mar-11: XKCD: Qua
XKCD qua XKCD is just XKCD. Latin does things to your mind.
Tue 2022-Feb-15: Sustaining Spirit in Hard Times: People are Complicated
Times are difficult, here in the 3rd year of a global pandemic that drags on and on, because people just cannot grasp the importance of public health measures and vaccination. Anything that sustains our spirit and our belief in a good core of human nature is important. So why am I looking at dog statues on bridges in Prague?
Fri 2022-Jan-07: Tech Skepticism
It’s fashionable lately to be skeptical about technology. (Of everything, really.) Sometimes we don’t realize how deep are the roots of suspicion of innovation, and (usually) how wrong.
Wed 2021-Dec-15: Tis the Season… of the Analemma
It’s that season again: the time of nerdly meditations on the analemma. The shortest day of the year, Dec 21, is yet to come. But for night owls, the day of earliest sunset (at the latitude of Château Weekend) was Dec 8th. How can that be? That’s the tale of the analemma!
Mon 2021-May-03: Reviewing Google Translate for These Blog Posts
A few weeks ago, we hooked up Google Translate for this blog. It’s time to review how well it’s been working… or not.
Fri 2021-Apr-30: CORVID 19
In Latin, “corvus” means crow. So the adjectival form used in biology for birds-such-as-crows is “corvid”. Sometimes people get confused in interesting ways.
Mon 2020-Dec-21: Winter solstice, Dodds's Day, and the Weekend Editrix's Day
Today is the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year in the northern hemisphere. It is not, however, the day of earliest sunset (of interest to night owls). Nor is it the day of latest sunrise (of interest to morning… people). Therein lies the tale of the analemma, first told to me long ago by a marvelous former colleague, Doug Dodds.
Mon 2020-Jul-20: Math test post
Just seeing if I can make the math typesetting work. Nothing to see here, kid… move along.
Sat 2020-Jul-18: Lord Kelvin on quantitative knowledge
Qualitative knowledge is real, but… quantitative knowledge is almost always better.
Thu 2020-Jul-02: The Retirement of Iphegenia
Somebody asked me, “What’s your retirement plan?”

PharmaAndBiotech:

Wed 2024-Oct-16: Today I Got Shot… Again!
Today I got shot… i.e., vaccinated against COVID-19… again.
Thu 2024-Jul-11: Good News on HIV Prevention
Good news on preliminary Phase 3 readout of lenacapavir: 100% efficacy in preventing infection!
Fri 2024-Jun-21: Addendum to FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition for Fall 2024
There’s an addendum to the post FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition for Fall 2024, about the FDA’s override of the VRBPAC to specify the KP.2 strain for this fall’s COVID-19 vaccine.
Wed 2024-Jun-05: FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition for Fall 2024
Today the US FDA’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to discuss the composition of COVID-19 booster vaccines for fall 2024. Let’s check out the science content.
Thu 2024-May-16: A New Low for Republicans & Masks
Remember how much US Republicans during the pandemic thought wearing masks was a horror beyond imagination? They’ve gone beyond that, now.
Tue 2024-Mar-12: Happily Getting Yet Another COVID-19 Booster
Yesterday I got my 8th COVID-19 booster. It was ok!
Wed 2024-Feb-28: US CDC ACIP Meeting: COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Today the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) met, to decide recommendations on COVID-19 vaccines for 2024. Let’s go see what went down.
Sat 2023-Sep-30: Long Time, No Blog?
So… long time, no blog, eh?
Thu 2023-Apr-20: Today I Got Shot Yet Again: A 6th COVID-19 Vaccination
Today I got my 6th COVID-19 vaccination. Here’s why, in case you’re interested.
Wed 2023-Mar-15: COVID-19 Disgraces
How has the US performed vis à vis COVID-19? Are we learning to do better?
Tue 2023-Feb-14: On the Base Rate Fallacy, Redux
Will we ever not be trapped by the base rate fallacy?
Fri 2023-Jan-27: FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition Going Forward
The FDA VRBPAC (Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee) met this week to discuss the composition of vaccines going forward. In particular, should we consolidate on a series of bivalent shots instead of the current mixture of old and new?
Mon 2022-Nov-21: The Weekend Editrix's Flu & Bivalent Booster Adventures (And Why She Went Through Them)
Today the Weekend Editrix got her annual flu vax and COVID-19 bivalent booster. Let’s look at why that’s a good idea for all of us.
Wed 2022-Nov-09: Svante Pääbo Nobel Prize
The 2022 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine went to Svante Pääbo.
Mon 2022-Nov-07: Today I Got Shot… For the 12th Time
Today I got my 12th vaccination since 2020! Really.
Mon 2022-Oct-24: Paxlovid in the Wild Redux
What do we know about the people for whom paxlovid works really well?
Tue 2022-Oct-18: On COVID-19 Antivirals: Real-World Experience
Our newest COVID-19 antiviral medicines, molnupiravir and paxlovid, have been out for a while now. What’s the real-world experience on efficacy?
Fri 2022-Sep-23: New SARS-CoV2 Variants… Again!
Tired of COVID-19? Me too. But… apparently the SARS-CoV2 virus is not yet tired of us!
Sat 2022-Sep-10: On Timing the Next Bivalent Booster for Omicron COVID-19
Somebody asked me when we’d be getting the new bivalent COVID-19 boosters. (Not if but when.) Since we’ve both recently had COVID-19, that requires a bit of a think.
Tue 2022-Sep-06: Nucleocapsid Abs & Severe COVID-19
Somebody asked me a couple months ago about the significance of high nucleocapsid antibodies in unvaccinated people compared to the vaccinated. Now there’s another paper exploring the meaning of N ab levels. Let’s see what it says!
Sun 2022-Sep-04: COVID-19 Chez Weekend: Index of Posts
This is an index to all the Weekend Reading blog posts about our experience of the two of us having COVID-19 here at Chez Weekend.
Wed 2022-Aug-31: US FDA Grants Emergency Use Authorization for Bivalent Classic/Omicron COVID-19 Vaccines
Today the FDA granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to both Pfizer and Moderna’s bivalent COVID-19 vaccines for classic and Omicron/BA.4/5 variants.
Tue 2022-Aug-23: COVID-19: One Month Later
It’s been a month since we were exposed to COVID-19 here at Château Weekend, testing positive 2 days later. Surely it must all be over, right? Right? Ahem.
Fri 2022-Aug-19: COVID-19: Day 25
So… 25 days into the COVID-19 journey. Is it over yet?
Mon 2022-Aug-15: COVID-19: Day 21
Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?
Thu 2022-Aug-11: COVID-19: Day 17
So… are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?
Tue 2022-Aug-09: COVID-19: Day 15
So… 15 days into COVID-19.
Mon 2022-Aug-08: COVID-19: The Power of Positive Thinking
People are always telling me to “think positive”. I hate it.
Thu 2022-Aug-04: COVID-19: Paxlovid Rebound, or COVID-19 Rebound?
Is “paxlovid rebound” because of paxlovid, or because there are just a lot of COVID-19 rebounds?
Tue 2022-Aug-02: COVID-19 & Paxlovid: After Day 8
Today is day 8 of my COVID-19 + paxlovid personal experience, i.e., 3 days past the last dose. Time to check for rebound infection.
Sat 2022-Jul-30: COVID-19 & Paxlovid: After Day 5
Today I took my last dose of paxlovid.
Fri 2022-Jul-29: COVID-19 & Paxlovid: After Days 3-4
Closing in on the 5th day of COVID, i.e., 4th day of paxlovid treatment.
Wed 2022-Jul-27: COVID-19 & Paxlovid: After Day 2
It’s now 2 days into my course of paxlovid for COVID-19.
Tue 2022-Jul-26: COVID-19 & Paxlovid: After Day 1
It’s now 1 day into my course of paxlovid for COVID-19.
Mon 2022-Jul-25: COVID-19 & Paxlovid: Day 0, Testing Positive & Getting Prescribed
Today your humble Weekend Editor finally tested positive for COVID-19. Sigh.
Tue 2022-Jun-28: FDA VRBPAC: Omicron-Specific COVID-19 Boosters?
Today the FDA’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to consider whether to add Omicron-specific vaccines to the mix, and how that policy should be set. Wanna read along to see what they do?
Thu 2022-Jun-23: On Biomarkers for Long COVID-19
Some crazy people are suspicious that Long COVID-19 is not a real thing. So we’re gratified here at Chez Weekend to find papers documenting some biomarkers for it that look pretty good!
Thu 2022-Jun-16: US Vaccination Rates: How's Your County Doing?
How thorough are vaccination rates in the US? And how geographically inhomogeneous?
Sun 2022-Jun-12: On the Lifetime of Conspiracies
The world is full of conspiracy theories, more than I recall ever being the case in the past, before social media. How reasonable is it to expect that a conspiracy can (a) depend on secrecy, (b) involve a large number of people, and (c) survive for more than a couple years? Not very, according to a probabilistic model!
Wed 2022-Jun-08: Readout of Moderna Bivalent Classic/Omicron Vaccine
Today the Moderna trial of a bivalent classic/Omicron COVID-19 vaccine read out. Looks pretty good, so a regulatory filing with the FDA is pending.
Tue 2022-Jun-07: FDA VRBPAC Meeting: Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to advise the FDA on whether to approve Novavax’s more traditional protein (non-mRNA) vaccine against COVID-19. Want to know who said what?
Fri 2022-Jun-03: COVID-19: Immunity Types and Real Prevalence
Two questions: what do we know about disease-induced vs vaccine-induced immunity, and what is the actual prevalence of COVID-19 beyond “officially reported” cases? Now there’s some data to think about here, though we can’t completely answer those questions.
Thu 2022-Jun-02: Paxlovid in the Wild
An Israeli group has studied the use of paxlovid to treat COVID in a large group of age-stratified patients vs the SARS-CoV2 Omicron variant. The results are interesting, and a bit different from what I’d expected.
Wed 2022-Jun-01: Upcoming FDA VRBPAC Meetings
Three meetings of the FDA’s VRBPAC advisors on vaccines are coming up this month.
Sat 2022-May-21: Sibylla Bostoniensis: Getting Paxlovid in Massachusetts
Siderea at Sibylla Bostoniensis today published a useful guide to getting prescribed paxlovid in Massachusetts, should you have the misfortune to find yourself testing positive for COVID-19.
Fri 2022-May-20: Missouri: Ivermectin Gag Order
Right-wing strategy: when reality has a well-known liberal bias… you can use legal gag orders to force your delusions upon people.
Wed 2022-May-18: COVID-19: Officially 1 Million US Dead
[Tone warning: Angry post.] We reached yesterday a grim and disgraceful milestone in the US, having at least 1 million COVID-19 dead. And that’s just the official count.
Thu 2022-May-12: What's in the Moderna 2022-Q1 Earnings Call?
Apparently Moderna just had an earnings call, and there was some talk of whether multivalent Omicron boosters could be available in time for fall/winter 2022/2023.
Wed 2022-May-11: Which Arm Gets the Booster?
A burning question for everybody who’s gotten a booster, or wants one: the same arm, or the other arm?
Tue 2022-May-10: Compassion for the Unvaccinated
I have a hard time controlling my anger at the unvaccinated, the spreaders of disinformation, and the superstitious for prolonging the pandemic and killing people world-wide. Others, who are likely better people than me, have managed to find another way.
Sun 2022-May-08: The Highest-Vaccination Ethnic Group in the US, Redux
Remember last year when we noted the highest-vaccination ethnic group in the US? They’re still winning, and it shows in the statistics.
Fri 2022-May-06: The Pan-Coronavirus Vaccine Landscape
What sort of progress is being made on pancoronavirus vaccines?
Tue 2022-May-03: How Can Evusheld Possibly Work?!
Evusheld is an antibody infusion which confers about 6 months of vaccine-like immunity to COVID-19. How can that possibly work, when antibodies last a few days to a few weeks?!
Mon 2022-May-02: No Masks + New Wave = ?
Somehow we’ve stumbled into striking down mask mandates. Who did that? AND is it ok, with the next wave situation of SARS-CoV2? Do you even have to guess?
Sun 2022-May-01: It's Always Been 2 Americas for COVID-19
COVID-19 has brought to light a lot of disparities in the US. Today’s scientific paper is about just how certainly we know the Trumpy parts of the country, especially the South, were COVID-19 disasters: hundreds of thousands of excess deaths due to mask defiance, vaccine refusal, and malign conservative disinformation.
Sat 2022-Apr-30: Preventive Paxlovid Fails
Pfizer just read out a Phase 2/3 trial of paxlovid for preventing transmission of COVID-19 to other members of a household when one member is infected. Alas: nope.
Thu 2022-Apr-28: Weekend Editrix Shot For the 7th Time
Today the Weekend Editrix got shot for the 7th time in the trailing 12 months, having gotten her 2nd booster for COVID-19.
Mon 2022-Apr-25: Japan's Shionogi Ltd. Has Another COVID-19 Antiviral in Late-Stage Trials
Some good news: there’s now another COVID-19 antiviral drug candidate that has the same target as paxlovid in late clinical trials.
Mon 2022-Apr-18: Ivermectin vs Strongyloidiasis Paper Published
Somebody asked me about the evidence associating putative ivermectin effects with worms, not COVID-19. Seems like it’s been finally published!
Fri 2022-Apr-08: FDA VRBPAC Meeting on Booster & Vaccine Variant Policy
This week the FDA’S Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to consider future policy for vaccine boosters and variants for the future.
Fri 2022-Apr-01: Today: Shot for the 7th time
Today I got my 7th vaccination shot in the last 12 months. Happily.
Fri 2022-Mar-25: On the Tension Between Hope and Despair
I feel I’m walking a knife-edge between hope and despair. The news is not helping.
Fri 2022-Mar-18: COVID-19: Lessons Learned & Another Booster
We would like to think we’ve learned a few things from our collective COVID-19 experience, but the evidence is somewhat equivocal. What we’ve definitely learned is that there will almost certainly be another booster.
Wed 2022-Mar-09: Rethinking NPIs and Vaccinations
People are clamoring for an end to “restrictions”, by which they mean masks and closures. And, of course, vaccination mandates. They’re eager to be done with COVID-19, whether COVID-19 is done with them or not. Does any of that make sense? Well… some of it… maybe.
Mon 2022-Mar-07: Ivermectin Revenant
Somebody asked about a recently published abstract comparing ivermectin vs remdesivir in treating COVID-19. (Sigh.)
Fri 2022-Mar-04: On the Difficulty of Making Paxlovid
Somebody asked me why we don’t have enough paxlovid or bebtelovimab to go around. After mumbling “something something supply chain”, they ask another question: why can’t we just make more, and faster? Far from being naïve, that’s a very good question.
Sat 2022-Feb-26: Masterful Data Journalism on US Political Resistance to COVID-19 Vaccines
Joss Fong at Vox just put together an explainer on political defiance of COVID-19 vaccines in the US. It’s one of the best pieces of data journalism lite (i.e., no equations) and graphic design for explanation that I’ve ever seen.
Sun 2022-Feb-13: The Shame of the Anti-Vaxxers
The shameful behavior of the anti-vaxxers has reached intolerable levels. It’s been extremely bad for a while, but now they’re picking off prominent scientists and public intellectuals with death threats.
Fri 2022-Feb-11: FDA VRBPAC To Consider Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine for Kids 6mo - 4yr
On Monday 2022-Feb-15 the FDA’s VRBPAC will meet to consider Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for ages 6mo - 2yr. It worked for 6mo - 2yr, but not for 2yr - 4yr. A 3rd dose is being tested for 2yr - 4yr, but the FDA invited this application so parents can get their kids started on the first 2 doses while waiting for data on the 3rd. Unusual? Very!
Wed 2022-Feb-09: On the Moderna Monkey Trial of Omicron-Specific Boosters
Somebody asked me about a report that Moderna’s monkey trial of an Omicron-specific booster wasn’t any better than the existing vaccine. What should we think about that?
Tue 2022-Feb-08: On the Importance of Nagging the Unvaccinated
It’s important that we keep nagging people to get vaccinated, at escalating levels of unpleasantness. Let me show you why.
Mon 2022-Feb-07: SARS-CoV2 Cryptic Sequences in NYC Wastewater: Why Not to Sleep Well at Night
As long as we’ve got our heads in the sewers, what else is happening with wastewater SARS-CoV2 analyses? It turns out, New York City rather alarmingly has some “cryptic sequences” not yet observed in humans. This is how the virus is scheming to throw another wave at us.
Mon 2022-Jan-31: Moderna COVID-19 vaccine fully FDA-approved
Good news: the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, aka ‘Spikevax’, is now fully FDA-approved!
Fri 2022-Jan-28: The Ten Billionth Dose
There have now been around 10 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses given. What should we make of that?
Wed 2022-Jan-26: Pan-Coronavirus Vaccines
Last October, we noted that NIAID had granted $36 million for the development of a pan-coronavirus vaccine. Time for an report: how’s that working out?
Fri 2022-Jan-21: Shameful BioPharma Donations to Insurrectionists
Regrettably, it has come to light that my former industry has some bad actors who are funding the Republican politicians who attempted to overthrow the last election. Who are these funders of insurrectionists, and once we know their companies can we shame them into stopping?
Wed 2022-Jan-19: Med-Chem Optimization of Paxlovid
Previously, we wrote about how hard it currently is to find paxlovid, given intense demand, supply chain frustrations, and the complex synthesis pathway. Today let’s have a look at how exactly one goes about discovering such a thing, with an improbable number of steps in its chemistry. (Hint: an awful lot of luck/serendipity was involved!)
Tue 2022-Jan-18: Comparing the US COVID-19 Pandemic to Other Countries
How’s the US pandemic doing in comparison to other countries, particularly those that Republicans love to diss?
Wed 2022-Jan-12: Paxlovid Availability vs the Omicron Wave
The Omicron wave is coming. Paxlovid is scarce. Which way will it go?
Tue 2022-Jan-11: Finding paxlovid
Paxlovid is a remarkable early therapeutic for people who’ve caught COVID-19. But… it’s very scarce for the next few months, ironically during the Omicron wave. Where can you score some paxlovid?!
Thu 2022-Jan-06: Reeeeeeally long COVID!
How long can COVID-19 go on? If you answered less than $O(10^4)$ years until everyone with susceptible genes is dead… well, think again.
Wed 2021-Dec-22: FDA Authorizes Paxlovid
… aaaaand, today the suspense is over: the FDA has authorized paxlovid.
Tue 2021-Dec-14: Veni, veni paxlovid!
Today Pfizer announced they’ve submitted the final data package to the FDA for their COVID-19 anti-viral oral therapy, paxlovid. Wanna take a look at the (scant) data we have so far, as a holiday gift of sorts to all of humanity?
Fri 2021-Dec-10: The Weekend Editrix Exposed to COVID-19: An Adventure with Bayes Rule in Medical Testing
Last weekend, the Weekend Editrix was exposed to a person who tested positive for COVID-19. The need for rapid testing suddenly became very real for us. While waiting for the test to work, we worked out the Bayesian stats for the test: a positive test means near-100% chance of COVID-19, while a negative test means 89.4% chance of no COVID-19.
Thu 2021-Dec-09: FDA Grants EUA to AstraZeneca's Evusheld for COVID-19 Prevention
Guess what? Yesterday, the FDA gave Emergency Use Authorization to another COVID-19 medication, Evusheld from AstraZeneca. Yeah… I didn’t know, either!
Wed 2021-Dec-08: Some Advice from 'Your Local Epidemiologist'
YLE has some important advice for all of us about surviving Omicron.
Mon 2021-Dec-06: Omicron vs Delta
Will the Omicron variant outcompete Delta? Starting to look like it. Will that be a bad thing? Dunno, could go either way depending on reinfection rate and severity.
Thu 2021-Dec-02: Mea Culpa: Efficacies Don't Average!
A couple days ago, commenting at TheZvi, I blithely averaged efficacies from the early and late cohorts of the molnupiravir trial. Fellow commenter Thomas pointed out that this is not correct! This post is a mea culpa and a lesson to myself on How to Do It Right.
Tue 2021-Nov-30: FDA AMDAC Considers Merck's Molnupiravir
Today the FDA’s Antimicrobial Drugs Advisory Committee (AMDAC) meets to decide whether or not to recommend emergency use authorization (EUA) of Merck’s molnupiravir, and antiviral therapy for mild to moderate COVID-19 in adults. Wanna read along?
Tue 2021-Nov-23: COVID-19: Is it 'over'?
With vaccination rates rising (albeit glacially slowly), and new therapeutics like molnupiravir and paxlovid about to be approved, people are asking: is it over? My take is: probably not.
Fri 2021-Nov-19: A Couple Ivermectin Takedowns
The right-wing knuckleheadedness around ivermectin as a COVID-19 therapy continues to amaze me. This week I came across 2 ivermectin takedowns: a Malaysian clinical trial and Scott Alexander’s dissection of the ivmmeta.com metanalysis. Two thumbs down. Way down.
Fri 2021-Nov-12: On New COVID-19 Therapeutics
Vaccines are great, but now there are some exciting new treatments for COVID-19, in case you get a breakthrough infection (or made the wrong choice about accepting vaccination). Let’s look at how well they work, and what they might cost in comparison to other things.
Thu 2021-Nov-04: Natural vs Vaccine Immunity, Redux
Last summer, we saw some evidence that COVID-19 vaccination conferred better immunity than ‘natural’ immunity from recovering from the disease. How has that held up in the face of new evidence?
Wed 2021-Oct-27: Today the Weekend Editrix got shot (for the 6th time!)
Today the Weekend Editrix got shot, also for the sixth time this year! It was pretty good.
Tue 2021-Oct-26: FDA VRBPAC Considers Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine for Kids 5 – 11
Today the FDA’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) meets to discuss an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty for children ages 5 – 11. Lots of parents have been awaiting this for the last year and a half, with varying degress of frayed nerves.
Fri 2021-Oct-15: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for J&J and Mix/Match Boosters
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Johnson & Johnson/Janssen application for 2nd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine. They will also at least discuss the 3x3 mix-and-match booster study.
Thu 2021-Oct-14: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for Moderna Spikevax
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Moderna application for 3rd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. Wonderful name aside, there should be a good case to be made as well.
Mon 2021-Oct-04: COVID-19 Miscellany
Do you want the good news first?
Mon 2021-Sep-27: Today I got shot (for the 6th time!)
Today I got shot. Again. For the sixth time this year!
Sat 2021-Sep-18: On the Naming of Vaccines
Today I learned the commercial names of the COVID-19 vaccines. One of them is a real winner!
Fri 2021-Sep-17: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for Pfizer Comirnaty
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Pfizer/BioNTech application for 3rd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Opinion is divided, so there will be some arguing. I’m makin’ popcorn.
Tue 2021-Sep-14: Today I got shot (a fifth time)
Today I got shot for the fifth time this year. Again, not guns and not COVID, execrable as they both are. Influenza vaccination this time.
Thu 2021-Sep-02: Are we wasting too much COVID-19 vaccine?
Today comes news that we’ve wasted about 15.1 million doses of COVID-19 doses here in the US. Is that a lot, or a little? How does it compare with history? Is the difference, if any, just random or is it real, i.e., statistically significant?
Tue 2021-Aug-31: Today I got shot (a fourth time)
Today I got shot for the fourth time this year. No, not the COVID-19 booster (yet). The second dose of Shingrix, for shingles.
Sun 2021-Aug-29: Vaccination vs Hospitalization Rates: Simpson's Paradox
Somebody asked me about why the vaccines are high efficacy with rare breakthrough infections, but we can see a high fraction of the hospitalized are vaccinated? Right, very puzzling. Then somebody else asked me what I thought of an article about Simpson’s paradox in the context of COVID. Ding, ding, ding, ding!
Sun 2021-Aug-29: ZDoggMD on telling COVID stories to motivate vaccination
I’m a data-driven guy who detests persuasian by emotional anecdotes. But most people are, to my dismay, different in that regard. ZDoggMD does a good job today of persuading them.
Mon 2021-Aug-23: Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine fully FDA-approved
Good news: the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is now fully FDA-approved!
Thu 2021-Aug-19: Two Predictions
From time to time, we make predictions here. Two of them were: high probability of COVID-19 vaccine boosters by fall 2021, and mRNA vaccines will dramatically change the future of vaccines. Guess what happened this week?
Wed 2021-Aug-18: COVID-19 Vaccines and Alzheimers: Analyzing the Myth
Somebody asked me about whether the COVID-19 vaccines prevented Alzheimers. Wait, what?
Tue 2021-Aug-17: COVID-19 Vaccines and Infertility: Analyzing the Myth
Somebody asked me about whether the COVID-19 vaccine could cause infertility. Wait, what?
Wed 2021-Aug-04: Vaccine Efficacy, Delta Variant, and the CDC Changes
Last week several bombs were dropped: COVID vaccine efficacy with the Delta variant, breakthrough infections, asymptomatic carriers, and changes in CDC guidelines. Was the panicky media coverage at all useful?
Thu 2021-Jul-29: Anger Among the Vaccinated
Somebody asked me why vaccinated people in the US seemed to be always so angry at the unvaccinated. Hmpf.
Mon 2021-Jul-19: COVID-19 Vaccination is Better Than Natural Immunity
Periodically I meet people who think “natural” immunity from having had COVID-19 is somehow better than being vaccinated. A new Israeli study plumbs the depths of just how wrong that is.
Sat 2021-Jul-17: COVID Vaccines: Why Not Full Approval?
Somebody asked me a couple days ago why the Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J vaccines don’t have full FDA approval. Umm… hmm. Good question.
Fri 2021-Jul-16: The Highest-Vaccination Ethnic Group in the US
What ethnic group in the US do you think has the highest vaccination rate?
Mon 2021-Jul-12: Thoughts on Variants & Vaccines
The variants are starting to pile up. Unless we vaccinate everybody faster, there are going to be variants which evade vaccines and then we start all over. How close are we to that?
Tue 2021-Jul-06: Vaccinations vs Votes
Back in April, we did some statistical analysis showing Trumpy states tended to have dramatically lower vaccination rates. Is that still the case? Regrettably, yes: more than ever.
Tue 2021-Jun-29: Today I got shot (a third time)
Today I got shot a third time! No, not a COVID-19 booster (though that’s getting pretty interesting, but its time is not yet). Today I got the first of 2 doses of the formerly-scarce Shingrix vaccine against shingles.
Thu 2021-May-06: Good news on vaccines vs variants!
Some good news, for once: the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is now known to work quite well against the British & South African variants in the real world. Especially in preventing hospitalization and death.
Sat 2021-Apr-24: The Billionth Dose
As of yesterday, we passed a remarkable milestone: the billionth COVID-19 vaccination dose has been administered.
Fri 2021-Apr-23: JnJ Revenant
Today the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) today recommended restoring use of the JnJ COVID-19 vaccine with warnings, and thrombosis treatment guidelines for clinicians. The CDC & FDA agreed, and lifted the restrictions. This seems to be very much the correct conclusion, albeit one arrived at far too slowly.
Wed 2021-Apr-21: Today the Weekend Editrix got shot (again)
Today the Weekend Editrix got shot. Again. (The good way.)
Mon 2021-Apr-19: Politics vs mask use & vaccine uptake in the US
Does political alignment in the US inform medically-relevant behaviors like mask use and vaccine uptake? Alas, yes: but not in a good way.
Fri 2021-Apr-16: Another study of clotting and COVID vaccines
Another study has come out, comparing clotting risks of COVID-19 and various vaccines versus each other. What are the risks? And can we interpret the study the obvious way, or not?
Tue 2021-Apr-13: US pauses JnJ vaccine on thromboses
Today the US regulatory agencies “paused” the use of the JnJ COVID-19 vaccine to investigate thromboses, similar to what’s been seen with the AZ/OX vaccine. How many, how bad, and what will a pause do?
Thu 2021-Apr-08: Reading the RNA in the Pfizer & Moderna vaccines
Have you ever wondered if you could make sense of the RNA code in the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, if you could just read it? With some help, you can now do exactly that.
Sat 2021-Apr-03: Pfizer/Moderna vaccine mRNA sequences posted on GitHub
Interestingly, some Stanford scientists saved a few drops of the Moderna vaccine, apparently ran them through their sequencers, and posted the sequences on GitHub.
Wed 2021-Mar-31: Today the Weekend Editrix got shot
Today the Weekend Editrix got shot. The good way: Pfizer/BioNTech PF-07302048/BNT162b2.
Tue 2021-Mar-30: Variants vs Vaccines
SARS-CoV-2 is mutating, in increasingly dangerous ways. Can we keep up with booster vaccines for the variants, or even eliminate it once and for all?
Wed 2021-Mar-24: Today I got shot (again)
Today I got shot (again). In the good sense: the second dose of Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine.
Tue 2021-Mar-23: AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine trial (and its further discontents!)
Somebody asked me about the AstraZeneca press release on their new Phase 3 vaccine trial. AstraZeneca has done it again… just not in a good way.
Wed 2021-Mar-17: The AstraZeneca/Oxford Vaccine vs Blood Clots
Somebody asked me whether worries the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine and dangerous blood clotting seen in some patients were a real problem. You know what the anti-vaxxers are gonna say; what do the data say?
Mon 2021-Mar-08: I guess I like Dolly Parton?!
There is an apparently famous American country music singer named Dolly Parton. I was never a fan because… country music, ugh! But it appears I need to be a fan of the woman herself, because of her philanthropy and her encouragment of vaccination. Hmm… I had no idea.
Wed 2021-Mar-03: Today I got shot
Today I got shot. No, not the bad way (though gun control is a legitimate issue in the US). I mean, with the first dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. Getting the appointment (and the 2nd dose) was Kafkaesque. The actual medical experience was pretty ok.
Fri 2021-Feb-26: Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 review by FDA external advisory committee
Today the J&J COVID-19 vaccine gets reviewed by VRBPAC (Vaccines & Related Biological Products Advisory Committee) at the FDA, for an EUA (Emergency Use Authorization). Let’s have a look through their submission documents!
Fri 2021-Jan-29: JnJ COVID-19 vaccine interim readout: 57% - 72% efficacy, depending on… SOMETHING
Today Johnson & Johnson/Janssen announced the interim readout (not final numbers!) of their adenovirus-vector based COVID-19 vaccine: 72% efficacy in the US, down to 57% efficacy in South Africa. We previously described the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna/Lonza vaccines as “beautiful”; this is “relatively pretty”. Pretty enough to do some good in the world, though.
Sun 2021-Jan-03: Formal scientific publication of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine Phase 3 trial
On 2020-Dec-30, the formal scientific publication of the Moderna’s COVID-19 Phase 3 trail in the prestigious New Englad Journal of Medicine dropped into public view. It’s good.
Thu 2020-Dec-31: The mutant coronavirus: will the vaccines still work?
Somebody asked me whether the COVID-19 vaccines currently being used would work vs the mutant form of SARS-CoV-2 now driving COVID-19 in the UK. Looks like it probably will, though nobody really knows. What will definitely work: masking, social distancing, working from home, no gatherings beyond a single household, having adequate food & medicine stored, getting a flu vaccination, and not being a super-spreader of misinformation.
Wed 2020-Dec-30: Serious adverse event frequency: about like getting struck by lightning?
Explaining to COVID vaccine clinical trial participants that the probability of a certain serious adverse event is 1/50,000 or less doesn’t work. Most people instantly stop listening at the slightest whiff of mathematics, including ordinary numbers. But if you compare it to being struck by lightning, that makes sense to most people. Can you guess what happened next?
Fri 2020-Dec-18: XKCD explains it all
Randall Munroe, the mad cartoonist behind XKCD, explains COVID-19 vaccine approvals. And channels Lord Rutherford. Simultaneously.
Fri 2020-Dec-18: Moderna vaccine passes FDA external advisory committee!
Yesterday was also a good day: the FDA’s external advisory committee passed the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at 5:20pm EST on 2020-Dec-17. Late today, the FDA agreed and granted the Emergency Use Authorization.
Tue 2020-Dec-15: Another beautiful vaccine: a look into the Moderna FDA EUA submission package
Somebody asked me about the contents of the Moderna EUA application for their COVID-19 vaccine. Summary: It is also quite beautiful.
Sat 2020-Dec-12: Are the Pfizer vaccine's efficacy confidence intervals sensible?
Somebody asked me about the confidence intervals Pfizer reported for vaccine efficacy in various age groups. Some of them are negative! Are they sensible?
Thu 2020-Dec-10: Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine passes FDA external advisory committee!
Today is a good day: the FDA’s external advisory committee passed the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine at 6:30pm EST.
Tue 2020-Dec-08: A beautiful vaccine: a look into the Pfizer/BioNTech FDA EUA submission package
Ok, nobody asked me this time, because for once I got out ahead of them. It seems Pfizer/BioNTech submitted an EUA (“emergency use authorization”) package to the FDA. What’s it look like?
Fri 2020-Nov-27: AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine interim readout (and its discontents)
Somebody asked me about the early readout this week of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine Phase 3 trial. Initially they said 70% efficacy. It’s not a stunningly good 95% result like Pfizer or Moderna; still, it’s a good, craftsmanlike bit of work. But then… things got weird.
Mon 2020-Nov-16: Moderna/Lonza vaccine interim readout: 95% efficacy!
Today the Moderna/Lonza vaccine trial vaccine trial gave its first interim readout: 95% efficacy! Also, 100% prevention of severe cases of COVID-19. Like last week’s Pfizer/BioNTech interim readout, this is again unabashedly good news.
Mon 2020-Nov-09: Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine interim readout: 90% efficacy!
Today the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine trial gave its first interim readout: 90% efficacy. This is unabashedly good news.
Wed 2020-Sep-23: COVID points of hope and evaluating a vaccine
Looking for a glimmer of hope amid the COVID clouds? Worried about whether a vaccine will be appropriately safe & effective? You’ve come to the right place.
Wed 2020-Sep-02: What's in the Moderna Q2 earnings call?
Somebody asked me (different “somebody” this time, though the same subject) about the Moderna Q2 earnings call. Do I look like I know the answer to questions like that?! On close inspection, though, it looks like a python swallowing a pig: a smallish company tackling a big problem with COVID vaccines.
Sat 2020-Aug-01: What's happening in the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine phase 3 start?
Somebody asked me (really it’s the same “somebody” behind all of these) about the Moderna COVID vaccine phase 3 start. Basically, it looks like the start of a reasonably designed Phase 3 trial: the beginning of a long slog to test safety & efficacy.
Wed 2020-Jul-15: What's in the Phase 1/2 readout of the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine?
Ok, so I finally tracked down the official Phase 1/2 readout of the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine (whose Phase 3 delay we commented on about 10 days ago). Here are some quick thoughts, but the top line seems to be very good.
Sun 2020-Jul-05: And what about the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine Phase 3 delay?
Somebody asked me — same troublemakers, in case you’re curious — about whether the Moderna/Lonza Phase 1/2 vaccine trial looked reasonable and if the delay of Phase 3 start for a protocol amendment was reasonable. Sure seems so! No, it’s not an investment signal.
Sat 2020-Jul-04: What's in the Phase 1/2 readout of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID vaccine?
Somebody asked me what’s in the Phase 1/2 readout of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID vaccine. Of course they wanted to know about the trial results, but they also wanted to know if it is an investment signal. It is not.

Physics:

Mon 2024-Aug-26: The Return of the Lawnmower Battery Surgeon
A couple years having passed since the last cell transplant, our lawnmower is once again in need of battery surgery.
Mon 2024-May-13: Anno MMXXIV Aurorae Borealium
A major solar coronal mass ejection has resulted in generational-sized geomagnetic storms on Earth. Also, glow-thingies in the sky.
Mon 2024-Apr-08: A Bostonian Pinhole Projection of the Eclipse
So, did I hear there was an eclipse today?
Sat 2024-Apr-06: Career Paths Not Taken
Somebody asked me about Sabine Hossenfelder’s recently published thoughts on the difficulties of academic physics as a career. Yup, she’s right on point!
Fri 2023-Jul-28: High $T_c$ Superconductors at Last?!
Last Saturday, 2022-Jun-22, two preprints from Korean physicists dropped on ar$\chi$iv. They claim room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductivity in a chemically relatively non-exotic material. Let’s see what they’ve got.
Wed 2023-May-10: On Dress Standards
You know how world political, business, and financial leaders fetishize suits for men? Physicists do not do that.
Fri 2022-Jun-24: My Brief But Spectacular Career as a Lawnmower Battery Surgeon
My lawnmower needed a new battery, but they’re no longer made. So I made one of my own.
Sat 2021-Dec-25: Today the Webb Space Telescope Launched
Today the Webb Space Telescope launched successfully. Happy Christmas.
Wed 2021-Dec-15: Tis the Season… of the Analemma
It’s that season again: the time of nerdly meditations on the analemma. The shortest day of the year, Dec 21, is yet to come. But for night owls, the day of earliest sunset (at the latitude of Château Weekend) was Dec 8th. How can that be? That’s the tale of the analemma!
Mon 2021-Nov-01: When Was the Norse Settlement at L'Anse aux Meadows in Newfoundland?
Hey, let’s think about something that’s not COVID-19! Like, for example: when exactly did the Norse settlement at L’Anse aux Meadows in Newfoundland happen?
Thu 2021-Sep-09: CFS & MIT PSFC build 20T REBCO magnet
Today Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) and MIT’s Plasma Science Fusion Center (PSFC) announced they have successfully built high-$T_c$ REBCO magnet capable of 20T field strength. What should that mean to you?
Mon 2020-Dec-21: Winter solstice, Dodds's Day, and the Weekend Editrix's Day
Today is the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year in the northern hemisphere. It is not, however, the day of earliest sunset (of interest to night owls). Nor is it the day of latest sunrise (of interest to morning… people). Therein lies the tale of the analemma, first told to me long ago by a marvelous former colleague, Doug Dodds.
Wed 2020-Dec-02: Proposed source of the "Wow!" signal?
The sad news about Arecibo brings up the topic of SETI. In better news, an amateur astronomer has proposed a particular star as the source of the famous “Wow!” event, using the Gaia Archive. Wait, what?
Tue 2020-Dec-01: Alas, Arecibo
Alas, for the Arecibo Observatory/National Astronomy and Ionosphere Center is no more.
Sat 2020-Oct-24: At autumn in New England, thoughts turn to...
At autumn in New England, thoughts turn to the extreme beauty of nature, the weather turning more comfortably cooler & drier, cinnamon and nutmeg smells everywhere, and… trebuchets, catapaults, air cannons, and other implements of imparting to pumpkins various levels of sub-orbital trajectories.

Politics:

Wed 2024-Dec-11: 2022 Tech Layoffs: Gender Bias?
Somebody asked me – ok, really I saw it on Mastodon, but close enough – about gender bias in the tech layoff cycle of 2022. Is it really true that women were targeted?
Fri 2024-Dec-06: Gruß von Krampus!
It’s that special time of year again… Krampusnacht!
Thu 2024-Dec-05: US Political Parties and the Budget Deficit
Previously, we looked at the party control of the 3 US government branches and their effect on the economy. We unaccountably left out the budget deficit, so let’s have a look at that: Republicans are commonly thought to be good for the budget, but are they really?
Fri 2024-Nov-22: US House of Representatives: The Arithmetic of the Wyoming Rule
Over dinner a few days ago, we were talking about about whether the Wyoming Rule would fix some of the bias in the Electoral College. The ‘Wyoming Rule’ is a proposal to make the US House of Representatives more representative of people, not territory. How might the arithmetic work out for which party gets more seats?
Fri 2024-Nov-15: No Twitter No More
No Twitter. No more.
Thu 2024-Nov-07: On Certainty as Cognitive Injury
People who are absolutely certain about something kind of scare me.
Wed 2024-Nov-06: Trump Redux
So… Trump again. Honestly, I don’t know how we survive this. Survive as a planetary civilization, survive as democracies, or even how I survive personally. I just don’t know how to gather the energy to live through this.
Tue 2024-Nov-05: Election Night 2024
So… election night it is, then?
Mon 2024-Nov-04: Ukraine War: 700k Russian Dead
The Russian dedication to killing their own military has staggered past another milestone: 700,000 Russian dead.
Mon 2024-Oct-28: US Political Parties and the Economy
Does it matter, economically speaking, which US party holds the Presidency, Senate, and House? Maybe not the way you think! The last 50 years of evidence implies Republicans are associated with worse inflation and unemployment. It is false that Republicans are better on the economy. That myth needs to die.
Mon 2024-Oct-14: Undecided Voters in the 2024 US Election
So… if you’re a US voter, are you undecided about the election?!
Thu 2024-Oct-10: This Week I Voted
This week I voted in the 2024 election.
Mon 2024-Sep-23: Best Political Ad Ever!
I just saw The Best Political Ad Ever. Most of them are terrible, but this one is warm, artful, and competent.
Tue 2024-Sep-10: The Harris/Trump Debate
Somebody asked me what I thought would happen at the debate tonight. Not gonna watch it.
Fri 2024-Sep-06: Elections, Fairness Gaps, and Age Gaps
The US is undemocratic in a variety of ways, favoring older voters and very old politicians among them. That might be about to change.
Tue 2024-Aug-27: Ukraine: 600k Russian Dead
The Russian invasion of Ukraine passed another milestone: 600,000 Russian dead (and counting).
Thu 2024-Aug-22: US Election 2024 Certification Warnings
Republicans are planning now to refuse certification of the 2024 election results.
Sat 2024-Aug-17: Does Education Help Against Anti-Semitism?
Does more education help in prying people loose from antisemitism? Frustratingly, “it depends.”
Mon 2024-Aug-12: US Voters: Check Your Registration for Republican Mischief!
Republican voter suppression and other electoral mischief is already starting. It’s time now to check your registration, and keep checking it until November.
Mon 2024-Aug-05: The Innumeracy of the Rulers
Have you ever wondered just how mathematically illiterate our rulers really are? Buckle up, Buttercup: it’s worse than you think.
Thu 2024-Jul-18: More Anti-Surveillance Fashion
The cameras, facial recognition, and snoopy cops without warrants haven’t gone away. Need new clothes for some reason?
Mon 2024-Jul-08: You Can Buy WHAT from a Vending Machine in the US?!
In Japan, you can buy almost anything from a vending machine. Recently, here in the US, we’ve made horrible progress on that front.
Thu 2024-Jul-04: 2024-July-04
So… the 4th of July, here in the US?
Fri 2024-Jun-28: The Biden/Trump Debate
So, Biden/Trump debate, eh?
Fri 2024-Jun-21: Addendum to FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition for Fall 2024
There’s an addendum to the post FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition for Fall 2024, about the FDA’s override of the VRBPAC to specify the KP.2 strain for this fall’s COVID-19 vaccine.
Wed 2024-Jun-05: FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition for Fall 2024
Today the US FDA’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to discuss the composition of COVID-19 booster vaccines for fall 2024. Let’s check out the science content.
Fri 2024-May-31: Post-Memorial Day Thought: 500k Russian Dead in Ukraine
A post-Memorial Day thought: Russian casualties in Ukraine are now more than half a million dead.
Thu 2024-May-30: Donald Trump Guilty of 34 Felonies
Conviction Day: a jury in New York City found former President Trump guilty of on all 34 felony counts.
Mon 2024-May-27: Memorial Day 2024
Apparently, it’s Memorial Day in the US. Again. Seems like this happens every year, or something. Here at Château Weekend, we still have ambivalent feelings about it (as is the custom of our tribe).
Thu 2024-May-16: A New Low for Republicans & Masks
Remember how much US Republicans during the pandemic thought wearing masks was a horror beyond imagination? They’ve gone beyond that, now.
Tue 2024-May-07: On Taxing the Rich
It’s easy for the rich to avoid taxation in the US – it appears that the 400 richest Americans now have an effective tax rate below that of the bottom half of income earners. How unusual is this?
Mon 2024-Apr-29: Death Rates Under Democrats & Republicans
Does the party in power in the US White House affect violent death rates? Apparently so!
Wed 2024-Apr-10: Casualties in Ukraine: Grief Piles Higher & Deeper
The Russian invasion of Ukraine just keeps getting worse. Predictably.
Tue 2024-Apr-02: Springtime for Shutdowns II: A Bayesian Coda
A little Bayesian coda on confidence limits for the probability of a government shutdown, given a Republican house.
Mon 2024-Apr-01: On 'Affording' the Rich
Can we afford to live in a world with billionaires? It seems not!
Thu 2024-Mar-21: Springtime for Shutdowns
It’s springtime! That means Republicans in the US want to shut down the federal government. Or does it? Let’s look at some data, and find out.
Tue 2024-Mar-12: Happily Getting Yet Another COVID-19 Booster
Yesterday I got my 8th COVID-19 booster. It was ok!
Wed 2024-Mar-06: Xenophobia Agonistes: Fascism & Immigration at Peak Absurdity
Sometimes you think the fascists, confederates, and Republicans just can’t get any worse, or any more clueless. Then you wake up.
Tue 2024-Mar-05: Voting: US Primary Super Tuesday
So… Super Tuesday, is it?
Wed 2024-Feb-28: US CDC ACIP Meeting: COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Today the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) met, to decide recommendations on COVID-19 vaccines for 2024. Let’s go see what went down.
Tue 2024-Feb-27: Does Trump Pose a Danger to Courts, Jurors, and Witnesses?
Trump is facing a gag order in his NY trial, on the basis that he has previously threatened judges, clerks, attorneys, witnesses and jurors – including death threats. While this is obviously true, do we have objective evidence that this is the case? Why, yes: yes, we do.
Tue 2023-Oct-10: Anti-Surveillance Fashion Tips
Tired of all the mass surveillance in our late capitalism culutre? Maybe it’s your fashion sense.
Sat 2023-Sep-30: Long Time, No Blog?
So… long time, no blog, eh?
Thu 2023-Aug-10: Robert Reich on Trump's Fascism
Remember back when I started referring to Trump as a fascist? (Neither do I. It’s been way obvious for a way long while.) Well, now plenty of well-informed others are saying it too.
Mon 2023-Aug-07: Ukraine Invasion: 250k Russian Dead
Sometimes the news is so inevitable and sad that all we can do is bear witness and mourn.
Fri 2023-Aug-04: US Political Parties & Economic Results
People in the US keep saying, over and over: “Republicans are good for the economy”. But what does the data say?
Wed 2023-Jul-19: Republicans: Mt Rushmore Is A 'Demonic Portal for Communism'
I am slowly learning never to ask how low Republicans can go in the US.
Thu 2023-Jul-06: COVID-19 mRNA in Boston Wastewater
Some good news: Boston COVID-19 wastewater levels were at (and now slightly above) the 2-year low.
Tue 2023-Jun-20: Personal Data Collection & Cookie Policies
This Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR) now has official personal data collection and cookie policies. You only think you don’t care about that.
Tue 2023-Jun-13: Arraignment Day 2023
Today in the US, we again experimented with a new national commemorative holiday: Arraignment Day for Donald Trump.
Mon 2023-Jun-12: US Executive Branch Criminal Indictments, Broken Down by Party
Do Democratic or Republican presidencies in the US result in more executive branch criminal indictments per year in office? We all think we know, but let’s consult the data.
Fri 2023-Jun-09: Indictment Day 2023
Yesterday in the US, we experimented with a possible new national commemorative holiday: Indictment Day for Donald Trump.
Tue 2023-Jun-06: On Forgiving Witchcraft… Slooowly
Does anybody else wonder what’s going on in the heads of legislators who are “outlier” votes? Like, when a vote is 33-1, what’s that one guy thinking? Principled holdout, or just stubborn? (Or maybe not very bright?)
Mon 2023-May-29: Memorial Day 2023
Apparently, here in the US it’s Memorial Day again. What should we think about that? Well… a lot!
Thu 2023-May-25: Tacitus in Ukraine
One of the (few) advantages to having been steeped in old books during youth is you begin to realize how often we do the same dumb stuff, over and over, for centuries. This seems to be especially true in law, politics, economics, and war.
Wed 2023-May-10: On Dress Standards
You know how world political, business, and financial leaders fetishize suits for men? Physicists do not do that.
Thu 2023-Apr-20: Today I Got Shot Yet Again: A 6th COVID-19 Vaccination
Today I got my 6th COVID-19 vaccination. Here’s why, in case you’re interested.
Tue 2023-Mar-28: Progress in Dark Times
Times are dark, but sometimes there are glimmers of progress.
Thu 2023-Mar-16: Schwarzenegger Reminds Us (Again) To Do Better
Arnold Schwarzenegger keeps making sense, even when nobody else does.
Thu 2023-Mar-02: Another Grim Anniversary
As if the world weren’t bad enough, today there’s evidence that Russian casualties in Ukraine have topped 150,000 dead.
Thu 2023-Feb-09: The 2023 US State of the Union Address
Somebody asked me about Biden’s State of the Union address. *Sigh*…
Fri 2023-Jan-27: FDA VRBPAC: COVID-19 Vaccine Composition Going Forward
The FDA VRBPAC (Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee) met this week to discuss the composition of vaccines going forward. In particular, should we consolidate on a series of bivalent shots instead of the current mixture of old and new?
Mon 2022-Nov-07: Today I Got Shot… For the 12th Time
Today I got my 12th vaccination since 2020! Really.
Sat 2022-Nov-05: Why Vote in 2022 in the US?
So, are you wondering if it’s worthwhile to bestir yourself to vote?
Wed 2022-Oct-26: Today I Voted in the 2022 Mid-Terms
So, today I voted.
Mon 2022-Sep-26: Petrov Day #39: Again Celebrating the Day the World Did NOT End
Today the world still did not end, for the 39th time in a row.
Mon 2022-Aug-29: On Authoritarian Cops in the US
Cops in the US are a hot mess of authoritarianism, viewing themselves as an occupying army. They’re sufficiently out of hand that the “defund the police” movement is starting to look like the side with the cool-headed, sensible arguments.
Fri 2022-Aug-05: COVID-19: How Bad Was the Unemployment?
Let’s see how job losses and rebounds (not COVID-19 rebounds, this time) look for the pandemic, compared to previous episodes of economic unpleasantness.
Thu 2022-Jul-21: While the World Burns
Everybody (well, every non-Republican) in the US is mad at Democratic Senator Manchin for being the vote blocking any meaningful climate change legislation at all. Well… there are a few other things to be mad about, right?
Tue 2022-Jul-12: Is COVID-19 Omicron/BA.4-5 the Most Infectious Viral Disease in Human History?
Somebody asked me about how seriously we should take the COVID-19 Omicron/BA.4-5 variants, given that so many people are “done with COVID” and refuse to mask. Response: basically, we should take it very seriously; people without masks are being very silly. Silly in a deadly fashion, irresponsible to the health of the rest of us. To answer the titular question: yes, unfortunately, it appears so.
Fri 2022-Jul-08: SCOTUS Atrocities, 2022 Edition
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) has a 6-3 conservative majority. Have the cases and decisions become any different as a result?
Fri 2022-Jul-01: Retirement: 2 Years In, And …
It seems I’ve been retired for 2 years now. What can 2 years of perspective tell us?
Tue 2022-Jun-28: FDA VRBPAC: Omicron-Specific COVID-19 Boosters?
Today the FDA’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to consider whether to add Omicron-specific vaccines to the mix, and how that policy should be set. Wanna read along to see what they do?
Tue 2022-Jun-21: On the Efficacy of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been controversial: people continue to object loudly and strongly to things like masking, social distancing, and closures of schools and workplaces. We now have some retrospective data: how have each of those measures performed, in terms of live saved for the complaints they’ve caused?
Thu 2022-Jun-16: US Vaccination Rates: How's Your County Doing?
How thorough are vaccination rates in the US? And how geographically inhomogeneous?
Sun 2022-Jun-12: On the Lifetime of Conspiracies
The world is full of conspiracy theories, more than I recall ever being the case in the past, before social media. How reasonable is it to expect that a conspiracy can (a) depend on secrecy, (b) involve a large number of people, and (c) survive for more than a couple years? Not very, according to a probabilistic model!
Tue 2022-Jun-07: FDA VRBPAC Meeting: Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to advise the FDA on whether to approve Novavax’s more traditional protein (non-mRNA) vaccine against COVID-19. Want to know who said what?
Mon 2022-May-30: Memorial Day 2022
So, here in the US it’s Memorial Day. Again.
Wed 2022-May-25: Japan's COVID-19 Control: A Great Success
Japan has done a quantitatively great job protecting Japanese citizens from COVID-19. What can we learn from them (about this, and so many other things)?
Fri 2022-May-20: Missouri: Ivermectin Gag Order
Right-wing strategy: when reality has a well-known liberal bias… you can use legal gag orders to force your delusions upon people.
Thu 2022-May-19: How to Waste Russian Government Time
I can’t say I entirely approve of this. But I do understand the desire to inconvenience the Russian government given the Ukraine invasion, and the humor involved in the chosen method.
Wed 2022-May-18: COVID-19: Officially 1 Million US Dead
[Tone warning: Angry post.] We reached yesterday a grim and disgraceful milestone in the US, having at least 1 million COVID-19 dead. And that’s just the official count.
Sun 2022-May-08: The Highest-Vaccination Ethnic Group in the US, Redux
Remember last year when we noted the highest-vaccination ethnic group in the US? They’re still winning, and it shows in the statistics.
Mon 2022-May-02: No Masks + New Wave = ?
Somehow we’ve stumbled into striking down mask mandates. Who did that? AND is it ok, with the next wave situation of SARS-CoV2? Do you even have to guess?
Sun 2022-May-01: It's Always Been 2 Americas for COVID-19
COVID-19 has brought to light a lot of disparities in the US. Today’s scientific paper is about just how certainly we know the Trumpy parts of the country, especially the South, were COVID-19 disasters: hundreds of thousands of excess deaths due to mask defiance, vaccine refusal, and malign conservative disinformation.
Fri 2022-Apr-29: Too Much AND Too Little COVID-19?!
Recently 2 Trump-appointed judges in the US have ruled that they can overturn Biden policies because there is simultaneously too much COVID-19 and too little COVID-19. They’re not even pretending to be rational any more.
Thu 2022-Apr-14: Passover & Late-Stage Capitalism
So, it’s Passover. What might late-stage capitalism have to say about that?
Fri 2022-Apr-08: FDA VRBPAC Meeting on Booster & Vaccine Variant Policy
This week the FDA’S Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to consider future policy for vaccine boosters and variants for the future.
Sun 2022-Mar-27: US Republicans Against Interracial Marriage?!
A Republican US Senator says he would allow states to ban interracial marriage. What?!
Fri 2022-Mar-25: On the Tension Between Hope and Despair
I feel I’m walking a knife-edge between hope and despair. The news is not helping.
Sat 2022-Mar-19: Some Unexpected Inspiration on Russia & Ukraine
Today I came across an unexpected source of encouragement in the matter of Russia and Ukraine.
Fri 2022-Mar-18: COVID-19: Lessons Learned & Another Booster
We would like to think we’ve learned a few things from our collective COVID-19 experience, but the evidence is somewhat equivocal. What we’ve definitely learned is that there will almost certainly be another booster.
Wed 2022-Mar-09: Rethinking NPIs and Vaccinations
People are clamoring for an end to “restrictions”, by which they mean masks and closures. And, of course, vaccination mandates. They’re eager to be done with COVID-19, whether COVID-19 is done with them or not. Does any of that make sense? Well… some of it… maybe.
Tue 2022-Mar-01: Ukraine & Russia: A Lack of Thoughts
Somebody asked me why I haven’t said anything about the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Well…
Sat 2022-Feb-26: Masterful Data Journalism on US Political Resistance to COVID-19 Vaccines
Joss Fong at Vox just put together an explainer on political defiance of COVID-19 vaccines in the US. It’s one of the best pieces of data journalism lite (i.e., no equations) and graphic design for explanation that I’ve ever seen.
Wed 2022-Feb-23: Pessimism and Optimism
Somebody asked me why I’m always so dour. Well, times are hard: pandemic waves, disinformation & death, potential nuclear war over Ukraine, the rise of the fascist right, climate change not only unchecked but furiously denied, and so on. So let’s take some inventory of our problems… and maybe a few points that (may) cause hope for the future.
Sat 2022-Feb-19: Republicans Still a Death Cult?!
Yesterday came simultaneous bits of evidence in the US that (a) COVID-19 death rates for unvaccinated are unambiguously disastrous, and (b) Republicans attempted to defund any school that takes COVID-19 protections. This is ‘death cult’ levels of badness.
Tue 2022-Feb-15: Sustaining Spirit in Hard Times: People are Complicated
Times are difficult, here in the 3rd year of a global pandemic that drags on and on, because people just cannot grasp the importance of public health measures and vaccination. Anything that sustains our spirit and our belief in a good core of human nature is important. So why am I looking at dog statues on bridges in Prague?
Sun 2022-Feb-13: The Shame of the Anti-Vaxxers
The shameful behavior of the anti-vaxxers has reached intolerable levels. It’s been extremely bad for a while, but now they’re picking off prominent scientists and public intellectuals with death threats.
Tue 2022-Feb-08: On the Importance of Nagging the Unvaccinated
It’s important that we keep nagging people to get vaccinated, at escalating levels of unpleasantness. Let me show you why.
Mon 2022-Feb-07: SARS-CoV2 Cryptic Sequences in NYC Wastewater: Why Not to Sleep Well at Night
As long as we’ve got our heads in the sewers, what else is happening with wastewater SARS-CoV2 analyses? It turns out, New York City rather alarmingly has some “cryptic sequences” not yet observed in humans. This is how the virus is scheming to throw another wave at us.
Mon 2022-Jan-31: When You Say 'I Did My Own Research'… What Does That Sound Like to Actual Research Scientists?
Lots people say ‘I did my own research’ on subjects in which they are not sufficiently educated to evaluate data, let alone form an independent opinion reliably. Here’s what that sounds like to actual research scientists.
Mon 2022-Jan-31: Moderna COVID-19 vaccine fully FDA-approved
Good news: the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, aka ‘Spikevax’, is now fully FDA-approved!
Fri 2022-Jan-28: The Ten Billionth Dose
There have now been around 10 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses given. What should we make of that?
Fri 2022-Jan-21: Shameful BioPharma Donations to Insurrectionists
Regrettably, it has come to light that my former industry has some bad actors who are funding the Republican politicians who attempted to overthrow the last election. Who are these funders of insurrectionists, and once we know their companies can we shame them into stopping?
Tue 2022-Jan-18: Comparing the US COVID-19 Pandemic to Other Countries
How’s the US pandemic doing in comparison to other countries, particularly those that Republicans love to diss?
Mon 2022-Jan-17: MLK Day 2022
Today in the US is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, when we honor the civil rights advocate who pushed for rights for racial minorities and the poor, for which he was assassinated. How best should that honor be expressed?
Sun 2021-Dec-05: Avoding Vaccination With More Creativity Than Common Sense
Remember last month, when we had the story about people in Greece bribing doctors for fake vaccines, and doctors taking the money but giving real vaccines? Even though that story has some believability challenges, it’s no longer the weirdest vaccine story I’ve heard. Move over, Greece: the Italians are on the job. (And where are the French surrealists, anyway?)
Tue 2021-Nov-16: COVID-19 Continues to Kill Conservatives
Charles Gaba has updated his county-level COVID-19 vax rates and death rates, versus percentage of Trump voters. It’s not pretty.
Tue 2021-Nov-09: On kids and vaccines: ending the pandemic
If you think we can end the pandemic without vaccinating kids because they tend not to get so sick… think again. Try harder this time.
Mon 2021-Nov-08: Three Lessons from COVID
COVID-19 has taught us some lessons about (a) how mind-numbingly stupid and corrupt we can be, and (b) some forms of corruption that are so confusing that I can’t tell if they are the divine madness or instead just &Gammad;ΤΦ.
Sat 2021-Oct-30: The Partisan Divide on COVID-19 Deaths
COVID-19 death rates in the US are nakedly partisan. So is mask resistance. So is delusional belief about nonsensical use of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine. Care to draw a conclusion?
Wed 2021-Oct-27: Today the Weekend Editrix got shot (for the 6th time!)
Today the Weekend Editrix got shot, also for the sixth time this year! It was pretty good.
Mon 2021-Oct-25: Are We Close to the End of the Pandemic?
Well… are we?
Sun 2021-Oct-24: On 'Natural' Immunity Persistence vs COVID-19
What are the consequences of relying on ‘natural’ immunity after recovery from COVID-19? Pretty grim, as it turns out.
Fri 2021-Oct-22: Cops vs The Rest of Us: Mask Edition
Two NYPD transit cops forcibly ejected a citizen from a Manhattan subway station. His crime? Pointing out that the cops were not wearing masks, in contravention of a statewide mask mandate, and, for that matter, simple common sense and courtesy.
Mon 2021-Oct-18: Vaccine Mandate Origins in the US
The history of why vaccine mandates are in fact constitutional in the United States has a long, somewhat twisted history. It’s also of local interest, here at Chez Weekend, as many of the important events transpired a short MBTA ride away.
Mon 2021-Oct-04: COVID-19 Miscellany
Do you want the good news first?
Mon 2021-Sep-27: Today I got shot (for the 6th time!)
Today I got shot. Again. For the sixth time this year!
Sun 2021-Sep-26: Petrov Day #38: Remembering the Day the World Did NOT End
Today the world did not end. That’s 38 times in a row, now.
Sat 2021-Sep-11: On war memorials
Today marks 2 decades since the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in NYC, the Pentagon in DC, and a third target that was spared because airline passengers forced a crash in Shanksville, PA. It also marks, with the recent US withdrawal from Afghanistan, at least a winding down, though possibly not a complete ending, of 20 years of war. It’s time to think about war memorials… sort of.
Wed 2021-Sep-08: The Madness of Texas Abortion Vigilantes
Texas passed an abortion ban at 6 weeks, in defiance of Federal rulings that they cannot do this before fetal viability (about 25weeks). How did that happen?
Tue 2021-Sep-07: The Madness of Vaccine Resistance
Have a quarter of us gone mad? It would seem so…
Mon 2021-Sep-06: Rosh Hashanah: A Chance to Start Over on Labor Day
Today is Labor Day in the US. It’s also Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year. What can we make of that coincidence, even without being Jewish?
Mon 2021-Aug-23: Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine fully FDA-approved
Good news: the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is now fully FDA-approved!
Wed 2021-Aug-18: COVID-19 Vaccines and Alzheimers: Analyzing the Myth
Somebody asked me about whether the COVID-19 vaccines prevented Alzheimers. Wait, what?
Tue 2021-Aug-17: COVID-19 Vaccines and Infertility: Analyzing the Myth
Somebody asked me about whether the COVID-19 vaccine could cause infertility. Wait, what?
Wed 2021-Aug-04: Vaccine Efficacy, Delta Variant, and the CDC Changes
Last week several bombs were dropped: COVID vaccine efficacy with the Delta variant, breakthrough infections, asymptomatic carriers, and changes in CDC guidelines. Was the panicky media coverage at all useful?
Thu 2021-Jul-29: Anger Among the Vaccinated
Somebody asked me why vaccinated people in the US seemed to be always so angry at the unvaccinated. Hmpf.
Mon 2021-Jul-19: COVID-19 Vaccination is Better Than Natural Immunity
Periodically I meet people who think “natural” immunity from having had COVID-19 is somehow better than being vaccinated. A new Israeli study plumbs the depths of just how wrong that is.
Sat 2021-Jul-17: COVID Vaccines: Why Not Full Approval?
Somebody asked me a couple days ago why the Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J vaccines don’t have full FDA approval. Umm… hmm. Good question.
Fri 2021-Jul-16: The Highest-Vaccination Ethnic Group in the US
What ethnic group in the US do you think has the highest vaccination rate?
Mon 2021-Jul-12: Really, Republicans?
[Warning: US-centric, lefty political rant. If you’re from outside the US and want to laugh at us… well, fair enough: we’ve earned it.] I mean… really, Republicans? Do you seriously want to put up with politicians like this? For what possible reason? Why would you even want to be in the same party as people like this?
Mon 2021-Jul-12: Thoughts on Variants & Vaccines
The variants are starting to pile up. Unless we vaccinate everybody faster, there are going to be variants which evade vaccines and then we start all over. How close are we to that?
Tue 2021-Jul-06: Vaccinations vs Votes
Back in April, we did some statistical analysis showing Trumpy states tended to have dramatically lower vaccination rates. Is that still the case? Regrettably, yes: more than ever.
Wed 2021-Jun-30: ZDoggMD on the Delta Variant
Somebody asked me what I thought of ZDogg’s explanation of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant. My first thought was “ZDogg who? Is that a rapper or something?” My final thought was that the guy’s eminently reasonable, eloquent, and kind.
Thu 2021-Jun-10: US COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries
As COVID-19 gradually comes under control in the US, we are becoming 2 countries: one that listends to science and medical advice, and another rather more backward. This leads to some startlingly disturbing contrasts in the news.
Wed 2021-May-12: More sense about vaccines from Hank Green
Hank Green once again has one or two true and useful words to say to young people about COVID-19 vaccination.
Sat 2021-Apr-24: The Billionth Dose
As of yesterday, we passed a remarkable milestone: the billionth COVID-19 vaccination dose has been administered.
Fri 2021-Apr-23: JnJ Revenant
Today the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) today recommended restoring use of the JnJ COVID-19 vaccine with warnings, and thrombosis treatment guidelines for clinicians. The CDC & FDA agreed, and lifted the restrictions. This seems to be very much the correct conclusion, albeit one arrived at far too slowly.
Mon 2021-Apr-19: Politics vs mask use & vaccine uptake in the US
Does political alignment in the US inform medically-relevant behaviors like mask use and vaccine uptake? Alas, yes: but not in a good way.
Fri 2021-Apr-02: Well, that didn't take long
As we’ve seen before, the biggest group of American vaccine refuseniks are White Republicans (especially men). Guess who’s swooping in to take up their vaccine supply?
Tue 2021-Mar-30: Proposed Darwin Award for vaccine policy
Sometimes politicians pursue policies so breathtakingly out of touch with reality, you just don’t know what to say. (Understandably, because “breathtaking”.)
Tue 2021-Mar-30: Variants vs Vaccines
SARS-CoV-2 is mutating, in increasingly dangerous ways. Can we keep up with booster vaccines for the variants, or even eliminate it once and for all?
Mon 2021-Mar-22: The pandemic year in retrospect
Time for perspective: we’ve been stuck in a pandemic for a year now. What’s the best summary of your experience?
Mon 2021-Mar-15: US Senate: does one party filibuster more?
Sen McConnell claims the Democrats abuse the filibuster! (Because of course he does.) But what do the data say?
Wed 2021-Mar-10: Republicans vs Herd Immunity
If a large enough clade of US persons refuse COVID-19 vaccination, herd immunity may never be reached. Right now in the US, that clade seems to be White Republicans. (World-wide, it’s of course more complicated.)
Mon 2021-Mar-08: I guess I like Dolly Parton?!
There is an apparently famous American country music singer named Dolly Parton. I was never a fan because… country music, ugh! But it appears I need to be a fan of the woman herself, because of her philanthropy and her encouragment of vaccination. Hmm… I had no idea.
Wed 2021-Feb-24: Why did Republicans block a Trump impeachment guilty verdict?
It’s been a couple weeks, so we’ve all calmed down a little. But still… why did 43 Republican senators vote to block the obvious guilty verdict in Trump’s impeachment?
Thu 2021-Feb-11: Impeachment actions: sine qua non
So. US politics: it seems The Creature is being impeached. Again. What can we do to make sure the impeachment makes a difference this time?
Mon 2021-Feb-01: COVID-19 vaccines: the need for speed
Vaccine rollouts worldwide, with very few exceptions, have been slow & bungled. But we face a cruel equation: delay = death. Why do we tolerate this?
Wed 2021-Jan-20: The adults are finally back in charge!
Today was a good day: with the inauguration (and the constitutional mandate behind it) at 12:01pm, Biden & Harris and a (barely) Democratic Congress are back in charge in the US.
Thu 2021-Jan-14: COVID-19 loves Republican politicians
Suppose you had 2 groups of politicians, but one of them thought a pandemic was “fake news”, refused to wear masks, congregated indoors with no social distancing, blocked public health spending, mocked public health guidance, was proud of their ignorance, and were just in general jerks about the subject. Do you think they’d get infected with the disease more often than their opponents?
Tue 2021-Jan-12: Apropos of nothing in particular, what exactly is 'sedition'?
I was wondering what exactly it takes to commit ‘sedition’. Turns out, it’s kind of complicated. What with insurrection, threats to murder Representatives, Senators, and the Vice President last week, apparently everything is complicated.
Wed 2021-Jan-06: Democrats take Senate & Presidency; Republicans start insurrection & terrorism
Today was when the Electoral College was to have been certified in Congress, sealing the fate of the presidential election. It is also the day the Democrats attained a majority in the Senate. Alas, it is also the day Republicans incited insurrectionists and terrorists against the United States government.
Wed 2020-Dec-30: Serious adverse event frequency: about like getting struck by lightning?
Explaining to COVID vaccine clinical trial participants that the probability of a certain serious adverse event is 1/50,000 or less doesn’t work. Most people instantly stop listening at the slightest whiff of mathematics, including ordinary numbers. But if you compare it to being struck by lightning, that makes sense to most people. Can you guess what happened next?
Mon 2020-Dec-28: You're scaring me
You all are scaring me, with your science denying, mask refusing, socially close quarters, holiday travelling ways. C’mon: wear a mask, socially distance, avoid indoor gatherings, get a flu shot. At least pretend to try you want to live until the vaccine is available, ok? Then maybe you won’t randomly kill the rest of us, who do want to live.
Fri 2020-Dec-18: Moderna vaccine passes FDA external advisory committee!
Yesterday was also a good day: the FDA’s external advisory committee passed the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at 5:20pm EST on 2020-Dec-17. Late today, the FDA agreed and granted the Emergency Use Authorization.
Tue 2020-Dec-15: Another beautiful vaccine: a look into the Moderna FDA EUA submission package
Somebody asked me about the contents of the Moderna EUA application for their COVID-19 vaccine. Summary: It is also quite beautiful.
Thu 2020-Dec-10: Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine passes FDA external advisory committee!
Today is a good day: the FDA’s external advisory committee passed the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine at 6:30pm EST.
Tue 2020-Dec-08: A beautiful vaccine: a look into the Pfizer/BioNTech FDA EUA submission package
Ok, nobody asked me this time, because for once I got out ahead of them. It seems Pfizer/BioNTech submitted an EUA (“emergency use authorization”) package to the FDA. What’s it look like?
Mon 2020-Nov-30: What size were the factions in the US election?
So we just had an election. You may have heard there were some rather sharply drawn sides. How big were each of the factions?
Sun 2020-Nov-29: We need the Talmudic argument style… someday
Somebody asked me about the style of argument used when discussing the Talmud, a centuries-long rabbinical dialog on Jewish Law. The style involves not so much winning (though there is that), but mostly about understanding multiple points of view. Sound like something the world could use about now?
Tue 2020-Nov-24: Some sense about vaccines from Hank Green
Hank Green (notable web producer, author, and master of miscellany) recorded his weekly vlog to his brother about whether he would take a COVID vaccine. Roughly: “oh hell yeah!” (though far more entertainingly).
Thu 2020-Nov-19: Well, that was somewhat… unsatisfying
Today the AP finally called Georgia for Biden, after the hand recount. But the Senate still hangs fire until the runoff in January. And apparently, 73 million Americans somehow voted for Trump?!
Mon 2020-Nov-02: Coronavirus & Elections: The Winter of Our Discontent
The election is coming, with a possibility of right-wing violence and subversion. COVID-19 is forming up for another wave of infections. Winter is coming. It’s terrifying, but there are some things you can do.
Tue 2020-Oct-06: Today I voted
Today I voted. You should too, if you’re an eligible US voter.
Fri 2020-Oct-02: Election Night of the Living Beta Binomials
As you may have heard, the US is about to face an election more contentious than any since the Civil War. With vote counting likely drawn out due to right-wing mischief at, for example, the Post Office, what are we to make of partial returns as far as predicting the outcome? And will there be zombies?
Sat 2020-Sep-26: Petrov Day — The Day the World Didn't End
Today we commemorate 1983-Sep-26: the day Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov prevented the end the world. Go thou forth and do likewise: save as much of the world as you can.
Fri 2020-Jul-03: Is the racial makeup of the Boston Police Department unrepresentative?
Somebody asked me about this article in the Boston Globe by Vernal Coleman on the racial makeup of the Boston Police Department: does it resemble the community it polices?

PoliticsTheDivineMadness:

Wed 2024-Aug-21: Harris at the Democratic National Convention
So, Harris at the convention… I wonder how that’s going?

R:

Fri 2024-Sep-06: Elections, Fairness Gaps, and Age Gaps
The US is undemocratic in a variety of ways, favoring older voters and very old politicians among them. That might be about to change.
Thu 2024-Aug-22: US Election 2024 Certification Warnings
Republicans are planning now to refuse certification of the 2024 election results.
Wed 2024-Apr-10: Casualties in Ukraine: Grief Piles Higher & Deeper
The Russian invasion of Ukraine just keeps getting worse. Predictably.
Tue 2024-Apr-02: Springtime for Shutdowns II: A Bayesian Coda
A little Bayesian coda on confidence limits for the probability of a government shutdown, given a Republican house.
Thu 2024-Mar-21: Springtime for Shutdowns
It’s springtime! That means Republicans in the US want to shut down the federal government. Or does it? Let’s look at some data, and find out.
Fri 2023-Aug-04: US Political Parties & Economic Results
People in the US keep saying, over and over: “Republicans are good for the economy”. But what does the data say?
Mon 2023-Jun-12: US Executive Branch Criminal Indictments, Broken Down by Party
Do Democratic or Republican presidencies in the US result in more executive branch criminal indictments per year in office? We all think we know, but let’s consult the data.
Wed 2023-May-17: Updated${}^3$: Ukrainian Estimates of Russian Casualties Hit 200k
Today the world reached yet another grim milestone in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Tue 2023-May-09: Updated Update: Ukrainian Estimates of Russian Casualties
We’ve (again) updated our estimate of when Russian casualties will reach 200k, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s published data. This time with an improved (though not perfect) prediction method.
Mon 2023-May-01: Update: Ukrainian Estimates of Russian Casualties
We’ve updated our estimate of when Russian casualties will reach 200k, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s published data.
Sat 2023-Apr-15: Do the Ukrainian Reports of Russian Casualties Make Sense?
Somebody asked me what to make of the Russian casualty statistics that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence posts on Twitter every day. Two tentative conclusions: the data look a bit odd in spots (perhaps an artifact of how they collect it), and the Russians are losing soldiers and tanks at a sustained, alarming rate.
Sun 2023-Jan-01: L'état du blog: 2022
Another calendar year down; also another annus horribilis. Let’s review what happened in this Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR), and studiously avoid the more daunting task of reviewing 2022.
Tue 2022-Sep-20: On the Reproducibility of Twitter Polls
Everybody knows Twitter polls are… questionable. But are they reproducible?
Thu 2022-Aug-04: COVID-19: Paxlovid Rebound, or COVID-19 Rebound?
Is “paxlovid rebound” because of paxlovid, or because there are just a lot of COVID-19 rebounds?
Fri 2022-Jul-08: SCOTUS Atrocities, 2022 Edition
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) has a 6-3 conservative majority. Have the cases and decisions become any different as a result?
Tue 2022-Jun-21: On the Efficacy of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been controversial: people continue to object loudly and strongly to things like masking, social distancing, and closures of schools and workplaces. We now have some retrospective data: how have each of those measures performed, in terms of live saved for the complaints they’ve caused?
Sun 2022-May-08: The Highest-Vaccination Ethnic Group in the US, Redux
Remember last year when we noted the highest-vaccination ethnic group in the US? They’re still winning, and it shows in the statistics.
Fri 2022-Feb-04: Boston Wastewater Re-Re-Visited: Sewage Viral RNA vs COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
In 2020-November and 2021-May, we looked at the SARS-CoV2 mRNA in Boston wastewater. It’s relation to medical loads was erratic. How’s it look with another 9 months of data?
Fri 2022-Jan-21: Shameful BioPharma Donations to Insurrectionists
Regrettably, it has come to light that my former industry has some bad actors who are funding the Republican politicians who attempted to overthrow the last election. Who are these funders of insurrectionists, and once we know their companies can we shame them into stopping?
Sat 2022-Jan-01: L'état du blog: 2021
A full calendar year of blogging has passed. So, thankfully, has the annus horribilis 2021CE. How did we come out? (The blog, that is. 2021 itself is still too traumatizing to discuss.)
Wed 2021-Dec-15: Tis the Season… of the Analemma
It’s that season again: the time of nerdly meditations on the analemma. The shortest day of the year, Dec 21, is yet to come. But for night owls, the day of earliest sunset (at the latitude of Château Weekend) was Dec 8th. How can that be? That’s the tale of the analemma!
Tue 2021-Dec-14: Veni, veni paxlovid!
Today Pfizer announced they’ve submitted the final data package to the FDA for their COVID-19 anti-viral oral therapy, paxlovid. Wanna take a look at the (scant) data we have so far, as a holiday gift of sorts to all of humanity?
Fri 2021-Nov-12: On New COVID-19 Therapeutics
Vaccines are great, but now there are some exciting new treatments for COVID-19, in case you get a breakthrough infection (or made the wrong choice about accepting vaccination). Let’s look at how well they work, and what they might cost in comparison to other things.
Thu 2021-Sep-02: Are we wasting too much COVID-19 vaccine?
Today comes news that we’ve wasted about 15.1 million doses of COVID-19 doses here in the US. Is that a lot, or a little? How does it compare with history? Is the difference, if any, just random or is it real, i.e., statistically significant?
Sat 2021-Jun-19: The Weekend Retirement Portfolio
After reading my rant on the superiority of Treasury bonds vs corporate bonds as a stock diversifier, of course somebody asked me what the retirement portfolio of the denizens of Chez Weekend looked like. Basically: index funds, heavily diversified across bond types, stock sizes, valuations, and nations.
Mon 2021-Jun-07: Stock Diversifiers: Treasury vs Corporate Bonds?
If you invest in US stocks, you certainly want to diversify with some bonds for risk control, availability of funds for rebalancing, and earning some income. Should you use Treasury bonds (which earn approximately nothing, but are safe) or corporate bonds (which earn something, but are riskier)?
Tue 2021-Jun-01: Bayes Rule vs The Millionaire Next Door
Somebody asked me (back in 2012!) about the famous book, The Millionaire Next Door. It’s good as far as it goes; it just doesn’t go nearly as far as almost everybody thinks!
Fri 2021-May-21: Wastewater Revisited: Metagenomic Viral RNA and Medical Loads
Last November, we looked at metagenomics of sewage SARS-CoV-2 RNA vs medical loads in Boston. The results then were inconclusive. There’s a lot more data now. Does the mRNA in sewage actually predict anything useful about COVID hospital admission, ICU admission, ventilator use, and death? Yes, it does.
Wed 2021-Mar-17: The AstraZeneca/Oxford Vaccine vs Blood Clots
Somebody asked me whether worries the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine and dangerous blood clotting seen in some patients were a real problem. You know what the anti-vaxxers are gonna say; what do the data say?
Wed 2021-Feb-24: Why did Republicans block a Trump impeachment guilty verdict?
It’s been a couple weeks, so we’ve all calmed down a little. But still… why did 43 Republican senators vote to block the obvious guilty verdict in Trump’s impeachment?
Thu 2021-Feb-11: Impeachment actions: sine qua non
So. US politics: it seems The Creature is being impeached. Again. What can we do to make sure the impeachment makes a difference this time?
Thu 2021-Jan-14: COVID-19 loves Republican politicians
Suppose you had 2 groups of politicians, but one of them thought a pandemic was “fake news”, refused to wear masks, congregated indoors with no social distancing, blocked public health spending, mocked public health guidance, was proud of their ignorance, and were just in general jerks about the subject. Do you think they’d get infected with the disease more often than their opponents?
Mon 2020-Dec-21: Winter solstice, Dodds's Day, and the Weekend Editrix's Day
Today is the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year in the northern hemisphere. It is not, however, the day of earliest sunset (of interest to night owls). Nor is it the day of latest sunrise (of interest to morning… people). Therein lies the tale of the analemma, first told to me long ago by a marvelous former colleague, Doug Dodds.
Sat 2020-Dec-12: Are the Pfizer vaccine's efficacy confidence intervals sensible?
Somebody asked me about the confidence intervals Pfizer reported for vaccine efficacy in various age groups. Some of them are negative! Are they sensible?
Mon 2020-Nov-30: What size were the factions in the US election?
So we just had an election. You may have heard there were some rather sharply drawn sides. How big were each of the factions?
Fri 2020-Nov-27: AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine interim readout (and its discontents)
Somebody asked me about the early readout this week of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine Phase 3 trial. Initially they said 70% efficacy. It’s not a stunningly good 95% result like Pfizer or Moderna; still, it’s a good, craftsmanlike bit of work. But then… things got weird.
Mon 2020-Nov-16: Moderna/Lonza vaccine interim readout: 95% efficacy!
Today the Moderna/Lonza vaccine trial vaccine trial gave its first interim readout: 95% efficacy! Also, 100% prevention of severe cases of COVID-19. Like last week’s Pfizer/BioNTech interim readout, this is again unabashedly good news.
Mon 2020-Nov-09: Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine interim readout: 90% efficacy!
Today the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine trial gave its first interim readout: 90% efficacy. This is unabashedly good news.
Wed 2020-Nov-04: Wastewater coronavirus RNA vs medical loads
Previously, we mentioned there were data showing the level of coronavirus RNA in metro Boston wastewater, and speculated that it might be predictive of medical loads like hospitalization and death rates. The truth turns out to be weirder than that (comme d’habitude).
Thu 2020-Oct-15: Statins & ACE inhibitors & ARB blockers as COVID-19 therapeutics?
Somebody asked me (honest!) about a news item linking improved treatment outcomes for COVID-19 with patients using statin and ACE inhibitor drugs. Very preliminary stuff, and the effect size is not giant, but it is peer-reviewed and looks quite legit. Not gonna change the world, but even small bits of good news are welcome.
Fri 2020-Aug-07: What's that stupid avatar?
Somebody asked me, “What’s that stupid avatar on your blog?” It’s a reminder that even simple questions show infinite complexity if you look closely enough. And sometimes even if you don’t!
Fri 2020-Jul-03: Is the racial makeup of the Boston Police Department unrepresentative?
Somebody asked me about this article in the Boston Globe by Vernal Coleman on the racial makeup of the Boston Police Department: does it resemble the community it polices?

Religion:

Fri 2024-Dec-06: Gruß von Krampus!
It’s that special time of year again… Krampusnacht!
Thu 2024-Nov-07: On Certainty as Cognitive Injury
People who are absolutely certain about something kind of scare me.
Fri 2024-Aug-23: The Weekend Hydrangea Team
Remember the Weekend Hydrangea Team? Let’s check in on them, and see how they’re doing.
Sat 2024-Aug-17: Does Education Help Against Anti-Semitism?
Does more education help in prying people loose from antisemitism? Frustratingly, “it depends.”
Fri 2024-May-31: Post-Memorial Day Thought: 500k Russian Dead in Ukraine
A post-Memorial Day thought: Russian casualties in Ukraine are now more than half a million dead.
Mon 2024-May-27: Memorial Day 2024
Apparently, it’s Memorial Day in the US. Again. Seems like this happens every year, or something. Here at Château Weekend, we still have ambivalent feelings about it (as is the custom of our tribe).
Sun 2024-May-19: The Spectrum Singers: Farewell to Music Director John Ehrlich
Saturday, we went to a concert by the Spectrum Singers in Cambridge, at the historic First Church Congregational. I was a little apprehensive about Schoenberg and Ives, but looked forward to the Vaughan Williams.
Wed 2024-Apr-03: A Sacred Moment
Today I experienced a sacred moment. Do you want to know more (homage à John Varley’s “Press Enter”)?
Sat 2023-Jun-10: Thinking While at the Symphony
Two nights ago, I was at Symphony Hall in Boston waiting for the Boston Pops to perform, when I saw that Trump was indicted. Clearly a big subject to wait for the next day, hence yesterday’s blog post. With that good news out of the way, let’s talk about what it’s like to go back to the symphony after years at home.
Tue 2023-Jun-06: On Forgiving Witchcraft… Slooowly
Does anybody else wonder what’s going on in the heads of legislators who are “outlier” votes? Like, when a vote is 33-1, what’s that one guy thinking? Principled holdout, or just stubborn? (Or maybe not very bright?)
Mon 2023-May-29: Memorial Day 2023
Apparently, here in the US it’s Memorial Day again. What should we think about that? Well… a lot!
Thu 2023-Mar-16: Schwarzenegger Reminds Us (Again) To Do Better
Arnold Schwarzenegger keeps making sense, even when nobody else does.
Tue 2023-Feb-07: Tripitaka Koreana
Today I learned about the Tripitaka Koreana: likely the most successful large data transfer over time in human history.
Fri 2022-Jul-08: SCOTUS Atrocities, 2022 Edition
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) has a 6-3 conservative majority. Have the cases and decisions become any different as a result?
Wed 2022-Jun-22: Remastered Film: Paris in the 1920s
Ever wonder how the past really looked? Not the jerky, off-speed, black & white silent stuff, but as if you were really there? Some video restorers are trying to recreate those experiences.
Mon 2022-May-30: Memorial Day 2022
So, here in the US it’s Memorial Day. Again.
Thu 2022-Apr-14: Passover & Late-Stage Capitalism
So, it’s Passover. What might late-stage capitalism have to say about that?
Sun 2022-Mar-27: US Republicans Against Interracial Marriage?!
A Republican US Senator says he would allow states to ban interracial marriage. What?!
Tue 2022-Feb-15: Sustaining Spirit in Hard Times: People are Complicated
Times are difficult, here in the 3rd year of a global pandemic that drags on and on, because people just cannot grasp the importance of public health measures and vaccination. Anything that sustains our spirit and our belief in a good core of human nature is important. So why am I looking at dog statues on bridges in Prague?
Sat 2021-Sep-11: On war memorials
Today marks 2 decades since the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in NYC, the Pentagon in DC, and a third target that was spared because airline passengers forced a crash in Shanksville, PA. It also marks, with the recent US withdrawal from Afghanistan, at least a winding down, though possibly not a complete ending, of 20 years of war. It’s time to think about war memorials… sort of.
Mon 2021-Sep-06: Rosh Hashanah: A Chance to Start Over on Labor Day
Today is Labor Day in the US. It’s also Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year. What can we make of that coincidence, even without being Jewish?
Sun 2020-Nov-29: We need the Talmudic argument style… someday
Somebody asked me about the style of argument used when discussing the Talmud, a centuries-long rabbinical dialog on Jewish Law. The style involves not so much winning (though there is that), but mostly about understanding multiple points of view. Sound like something the world could use about now?

Retirement:

Mon 2024-May-27: Memorial Day 2024
Apparently, it’s Memorial Day in the US. Again. Seems like this happens every year, or something. Here at Château Weekend, we still have ambivalent feelings about it (as is the custom of our tribe).
Fri 2022-Jul-01: Retirement: 2 Years In, And …
It seems I’ve been retired for 2 years now. What can 2 years of perspective tell us?
Sat 2021-Jun-19: The Weekend Retirement Portfolio
After reading my rant on the superiority of Treasury bonds vs corporate bonds as a stock diversifier, of course somebody asked me what the retirement portfolio of the denizens of Chez Weekend looked like. Basically: index funds, heavily diversified across bond types, stock sizes, valuations, and nations.
Mon 2021-Jun-07: Stock Diversifiers: Treasury vs Corporate Bonds?
If you invest in US stocks, you certainly want to diversify with some bonds for risk control, availability of funds for rebalancing, and earning some income. Should you use Treasury bonds (which earn approximately nothing, but are safe) or corporate bonds (which earn something, but are riskier)?
Tue 2021-Jun-01: Bayes Rule vs The Millionaire Next Door
Somebody asked me (back in 2012!) about the famous book, The Millionaire Next Door. It’s good as far as it goes; it just doesn’t go nearly as far as almost everybody thinks!
Thu 2020-Jul-02: The Retirement of Iphegenia
Somebody asked me, “What’s your retirement plan?”

Sadness:

Fri 2024-Dec-06: Gruß von Krampus!
It’s that special time of year again… Krampusnacht!
Fri 2024-Nov-15: No Twitter No More
No Twitter. No more.
Thu 2024-Nov-07: On Certainty as Cognitive Injury
People who are absolutely certain about something kind of scare me.
Wed 2024-Nov-06: Trump Redux
So… Trump again. Honestly, I don’t know how we survive this. Survive as a planetary civilization, survive as democracies, or even how I survive personally. I just don’t know how to gather the energy to live through this.
Mon 2024-Nov-04: Ukraine War: 700k Russian Dead
The Russian dedication to killing their own military has staggered past another milestone: 700,000 Russian dead.
Mon 2024-Oct-14: Undecided Voters in the 2024 US Election
So… if you’re a US voter, are you undecided about the election?!
Thu 2024-Oct-10: This Week I Voted
This week I voted in the 2024 election.
Tue 2024-Aug-27: Ukraine: 600k Russian Dead
The Russian invasion of Ukraine passed another milestone: 600,000 Russian dead (and counting).
Thu 2024-Aug-22: US Election 2024 Certification Warnings
Republicans are planning now to refuse certification of the 2024 election results.
Sat 2024-Aug-17: Does Education Help Against Anti-Semitism?
Does more education help in prying people loose from antisemitism? Frustratingly, “it depends.”
Mon 2024-Aug-12: US Voters: Check Your Registration for Republican Mischief!
Republican voter suppression and other electoral mischief is already starting. It’s time now to check your registration, and keep checking it until November.
Thu 2024-Jul-18: More Anti-Surveillance Fashion
The cameras, facial recognition, and snoopy cops without warrants haven’t gone away. Need new clothes for some reason?
Mon 2024-Jul-08: You Can Buy WHAT from a Vending Machine in the US?!
In Japan, you can buy almost anything from a vending machine. Recently, here in the US, we’ve made horrible progress on that front.
Thu 2024-Jul-04: 2024-July-04
So… the 4th of July, here in the US?
Fri 2024-Jun-28: The Biden/Trump Debate
So, Biden/Trump debate, eh?
Sat 2024-Jun-22: AI Large Lanuage Models: Still a BS Firehose
Somebody asked me, in the course of a family video call, what I thought about the latest AI Large Language Models (LLMs) and how they’re being used for everything. Have they improved from their previous BS conditions? Ahem. Uh… no.
Fri 2024-May-31: Post-Memorial Day Thought: 500k Russian Dead in Ukraine
A post-Memorial Day thought: Russian casualties in Ukraine are now more than half a million dead.
Thu 2024-May-30: Donald Trump Guilty of 34 Felonies
Conviction Day: a jury in New York City found former President Trump guilty of on all 34 felony counts.
Mon 2024-May-27: Memorial Day 2024
Apparently, it’s Memorial Day in the US. Again. Seems like this happens every year, or something. Here at Château Weekend, we still have ambivalent feelings about it (as is the custom of our tribe).
Thu 2024-May-16: A New Low for Republicans & Masks
Remember how much US Republicans during the pandemic thought wearing masks was a horror beyond imagination? They’ve gone beyond that, now.
Tue 2024-May-07: On Taxing the Rich
It’s easy for the rich to avoid taxation in the US – it appears that the 400 richest Americans now have an effective tax rate below that of the bottom half of income earners. How unusual is this?
Mon 2024-Apr-29: Death Rates Under Democrats & Republicans
Does the party in power in the US White House affect violent death rates? Apparently so!
Fri 2024-Apr-12: When Book Reviews Grow Fangs
Usually, academic book reviews are a genteel and polite affair, at worst damning with faint praise. Usually… but not always!
Wed 2024-Apr-10: Casualties in Ukraine: Grief Piles Higher & Deeper
The Russian invasion of Ukraine just keeps getting worse. Predictably.
Sat 2024-Apr-06: Career Paths Not Taken
Somebody asked me about Sabine Hossenfelder’s recently published thoughts on the difficulties of academic physics as a career. Yup, she’s right on point!
Tue 2024-Apr-02: Springtime for Shutdowns II: A Bayesian Coda
A little Bayesian coda on confidence limits for the probability of a government shutdown, given a Republican house.
Mon 2024-Apr-01: On 'Affording' the Rich
Can we afford to live in a world with billionaires? It seems not!
Thu 2024-Mar-21: Springtime for Shutdowns
It’s springtime! That means Republicans in the US want to shut down the federal government. Or does it? Let’s look at some data, and find out.
Mon 2024-Mar-11: Tesla vs Safety Engineering
Yesterday came news of the unfortunate death of a driver in a Tesla which backed into a pond, whereupon the power cut making the doors unable to open and the windows essentially unbreakable. How many things went wrong here, and who could have foreseen this?
Wed 2024-Mar-06: Xenophobia Agonistes: Fascism & Immigration at Peak Absurdity
Sometimes you think the fascists, confederates, and Republicans just can’t get any worse, or any more clueless. Then you wake up.
Wed 2024-Feb-14: Not Dead Yet
Somebody asked me if I’m dead, given the lack of posts here for 4 months. It’s not prima facie an unreasonable question.
Tue 2023-Oct-10: Anti-Surveillance Fashion Tips
Tired of all the mass surveillance in our late capitalism culutre? Maybe it’s your fashion sense.
Sat 2023-Sep-30: Long Time, No Blog?
So… long time, no blog, eh?
Thu 2023-Aug-10: Robert Reich on Trump's Fascism
Remember back when I started referring to Trump as a fascist? (Neither do I. It’s been way obvious for a way long while.) Well, now plenty of well-informed others are saying it too.
Mon 2023-Aug-07: Ukraine Invasion: 250k Russian Dead
Sometimes the news is so inevitable and sad that all we can do is bear witness and mourn.
Wed 2023-Jul-19: Republicans: Mt Rushmore Is A 'Demonic Portal for Communism'
I am slowly learning never to ask how low Republicans can go in the US.
Wed 2023-Jun-14: On using ChatGPT for Peer Review
Somebody submitted a paper to a journal. The journal sent it out for peer review. A reviewer, skimping on their job, used ChatGPT to write the review. This went about as well as you probably think.
Tue 2023-Jun-13: Arraignment Day 2023
Today in the US, we again experimented with a new national commemorative holiday: Arraignment Day for Donald Trump.
Mon 2023-Jun-12: US Executive Branch Criminal Indictments, Broken Down by Party
Do Democratic or Republican presidencies in the US result in more executive branch criminal indictments per year in office? We all think we know, but let’s consult the data.
Fri 2023-Jun-09: Indictment Day 2023
Yesterday in the US, we experimented with a possible new national commemorative holiday: Indictment Day for Donald Trump.
Tue 2023-Jun-06: On Forgiving Witchcraft… Slooowly
Does anybody else wonder what’s going on in the heads of legislators who are “outlier” votes? Like, when a vote is 33-1, what’s that one guy thinking? Principled holdout, or just stubborn? (Or maybe not very bright?)
Mon 2023-May-29: Memorial Day 2023
Apparently, here in the US it’s Memorial Day again. What should we think about that? Well… a lot!
Thu 2023-May-25: Tacitus in Ukraine
One of the (few) advantages to having been steeped in old books during youth is you begin to realize how often we do the same dumb stuff, over and over, for centuries. This seems to be especially true in law, politics, economics, and war.
Wed 2023-May-17: Updated${}^3$: Ukrainian Estimates of Russian Casualties Hit 200k
Today the world reached yet another grim milestone in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Mon 2023-May-15: Post-COVID-19 Brain Fog: A Portrait in Data
Somebody asked me whether all my whining about post-COVID-19 brain fog was real. Yes, it is.
Tue 2023-May-09: Updated Update: Ukrainian Estimates of Russian Casualties
We’ve (again) updated our estimate of when Russian casualties will reach 200k, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s published data. This time with an improved (though not perfect) prediction method.
Mon 2023-May-01: Update: Ukrainian Estimates of Russian Casualties
We’ve updated our estimate of when Russian casualties will reach 200k, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s published data.
Sat 2023-Apr-15: Do the Ukrainian Reports of Russian Casualties Make Sense?
Somebody asked me what to make of the Russian casualty statistics that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence posts on Twitter every day. Two tentative conclusions: the data look a bit odd in spots (perhaps an artifact of how they collect it), and the Russians are losing soldiers and tanks at a sustained, alarming rate.
Thu 2023-Mar-16: Schwarzenegger Reminds Us (Again) To Do Better
Arnold Schwarzenegger keeps making sense, even when nobody else does.
Wed 2023-Mar-15: COVID-19 Disgraces
How has the US performed vis à vis COVID-19? Are we learning to do better?
Thu 2023-Mar-02: Another Grim Anniversary
As if the world weren’t bad enough, today there’s evidence that Russian casualties in Ukraine have topped 150,000 dead.
Wed 2023-Feb-15: On ChatGPT and Its Ilk
Somebody just summarized for me the exact nature of ChatGPT.
Tue 2023-Feb-14: On the Base Rate Fallacy, Redux
Will we ever not be trapped by the base rate fallacy?
Thu 2023-Feb-09: The 2023 US State of the Union Address
Somebody asked me about Biden’s State of the Union address. *Sigh*…
Tue 2023-Feb-07: Tripitaka Koreana
Today I learned about the Tripitaka Koreana: likely the most successful large data transfer over time in human history.
Mon 2022-Nov-28: Blog Comments Temporarily Disabled
Comments on this Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR) are temporarily disabled, due to Heroku lossge.
Sat 2022-Nov-19: De-twitter-fying This Blog
It seems Twitter is dying. Time to armor plate this blog so quote tweets survive.
Fri 2022-Sep-23: New SARS-CoV2 Variants… Again!
Tired of COVID-19? Me too. But… apparently the SARS-CoV2 virus is not yet tired of us!
Mon 2022-Aug-29: On Authoritarian Cops in the US
Cops in the US are a hot mess of authoritarianism, viewing themselves as an occupying army. They’re sufficiently out of hand that the “defund the police” movement is starting to look like the side with the cool-headed, sensible arguments.
Thu 2022-Jul-21: While the World Burns
Everybody (well, every non-Republican) in the US is mad at Democratic Senator Manchin for being the vote blocking any meaningful climate change legislation at all. Well… there are a few other things to be mad about, right?
Fri 2022-Jul-08: SCOTUS Atrocities, 2022 Edition
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) has a 6-3 conservative majority. Have the cases and decisions become any different as a result?
Sun 2022-Jun-12: On the Lifetime of Conspiracies
The world is full of conspiracy theories, more than I recall ever being the case in the past, before social media. How reasonable is it to expect that a conspiracy can (a) depend on secrecy, (b) involve a large number of people, and (c) survive for more than a couple years? Not very, according to a probabilistic model!
Sun 2022-May-22: Hank Green, John Green, and the Great Asymmetry
Videos by “vlogbrothers” Hank & John Green on the despair of the times led me to a WH Auden poem and an essay by Stephen Jay Gould on the ease of destruction vs the triviality of destruction. Also, a quick stop to visit Virgil (not via Inferno). Few can build; anybody can burn.
Thu 2022-May-19: How to Waste Russian Government Time
I can’t say I entirely approve of this. But I do understand the desire to inconvenience the Russian government given the Ukraine invasion, and the humor involved in the chosen method.
Wed 2022-May-18: COVID-19: Officially 1 Million US Dead
[Tone warning: Angry post.] We reached yesterday a grim and disgraceful milestone in the US, having at least 1 million COVID-19 dead. And that’s just the official count.
Tue 2022-May-10: Compassion for the Unvaccinated
I have a hard time controlling my anger at the unvaccinated, the spreaders of disinformation, and the superstitious for prolonging the pandemic and killing people world-wide. Others, who are likely better people than me, have managed to find another way.
Sun 2022-May-01: It's Always Been 2 Americas for COVID-19
COVID-19 has brought to light a lot of disparities in the US. Today’s scientific paper is about just how certainly we know the Trumpy parts of the country, especially the South, were COVID-19 disasters: hundreds of thousands of excess deaths due to mask defiance, vaccine refusal, and malign conservative disinformation.
Sun 2022-Mar-27: US Republicans Against Interracial Marriage?!
A Republican US Senator says he would allow states to ban interracial marriage. What?!
Fri 2022-Mar-25: On the Tension Between Hope and Despair
I feel I’m walking a knife-edge between hope and despair. The news is not helping.
Sat 2022-Mar-19: Some Unexpected Inspiration on Russia & Ukraine
Today I came across an unexpected source of encouragement in the matter of Russia and Ukraine.
Tue 2022-Mar-01: Ukraine & Russia: A Lack of Thoughts
Somebody asked me why I haven’t said anything about the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Well…
Wed 2022-Feb-23: Pessimism and Optimism
Somebody asked me why I’m always so dour. Well, times are hard: pandemic waves, disinformation & death, potential nuclear war over Ukraine, the rise of the fascist right, climate change not only unchecked but furiously denied, and so on. So let’s take some inventory of our problems… and maybe a few points that (may) cause hope for the future.
Sat 2022-Feb-19: Republicans Still a Death Cult?!
Yesterday came simultaneous bits of evidence in the US that (a) COVID-19 death rates for unvaccinated are unambiguously disastrous, and (b) Republicans attempted to defund any school that takes COVID-19 protections. This is ‘death cult’ levels of badness.
Tue 2022-Feb-15: Sustaining Spirit in Hard Times: People are Complicated
Times are difficult, here in the 3rd year of a global pandemic that drags on and on, because people just cannot grasp the importance of public health measures and vaccination. Anything that sustains our spirit and our belief in a good core of human nature is important. So why am I looking at dog statues on bridges in Prague?
Tue 2021-Jan-12: Apropos of nothing in particular, what exactly is 'sedition'?
I was wondering what exactly it takes to commit ‘sedition’. Turns out, it’s kind of complicated. What with insurrection, threats to murder Representatives, Senators, and the Vice President last week, apparently everything is complicated.
Wed 2021-Jan-06: Democrats take Senate & Presidency; Republicans start insurrection & terrorism
Today was when the Electoral College was to have been certified in Congress, sealing the fate of the presidential election. It is also the day the Democrats attained a majority in the Senate. Alas, it is also the day Republicans incited insurrectionists and terrorists against the United States government.
Mon 2020-Dec-28: You're scaring me
You all are scaring me, with your science denying, mask refusing, socially close quarters, holiday travelling ways. C’mon: wear a mask, socially distance, avoid indoor gatherings, get a flu shot. At least pretend to try you want to live until the vaccine is available, ok? Then maybe you won’t randomly kill the rest of us, who do want to live.
Tue 2020-Dec-01: Alas, Arecibo
Alas, for the Arecibo Observatory/National Astronomy and Ionosphere Center is no more.
Thu 2020-Nov-19: Well, that was somewhat… unsatisfying
Today the AP finally called Georgia for Biden, after the hand recount. But the Senate still hangs fire until the runoff in January. And apparently, 73 million Americans somehow voted for Trump?!

SomebodyAskedMe:

Sat 2024-Dec-14: Against Lotteries
Years ago, somebody asked me (an office mate, actually) about lottery tickets when the return was positive. Generally, lottery tickets are meant to lose money for you on average. So speaking only of money, you shouldn’t buy them. But once in a long while, they have a positive expected return. Should you buy one of those? Still no.
Wed 2024-Dec-11: 2022 Tech Layoffs: Gender Bias?
Somebody asked me – ok, really I saw it on Mastodon, but close enough – about gender bias in the tech layoff cycle of 2022. Is it really true that women were targeted?
Fri 2024-Nov-22: US House of Representatives: The Arithmetic of the Wyoming Rule
Over dinner a few days ago, we were talking about about whether the Wyoming Rule would fix some of the bias in the Electoral College. The ‘Wyoming Rule’ is a proposal to make the US House of Representatives more representative of people, not territory. How might the arithmetic work out for which party gets more seats?
Tue 2024-Sep-10: The Harris/Trump Debate
Somebody asked me what I thought would happen at the debate tonight. Not gonna watch it.
Mon 2024-Aug-05: The Innumeracy of the Rulers
Have you ever wondered just how mathematically illiterate our rulers really are? Buckle up, Buttercup: it’s worse than you think.
Sat 2024-Jun-22: AI Large Lanuage Models: Still a BS Firehose
Somebody asked me, in the course of a family video call, what I thought about the latest AI Large Language Models (LLMs) and how they’re being used for everything. Have they improved from their previous BS conditions? Ahem. Uh… no.
Sat 2024-Apr-06: Career Paths Not Taken
Somebody asked me about Sabine Hossenfelder’s recently published thoughts on the difficulties of academic physics as a career. Yup, she’s right on point!
Wed 2024-Mar-06: Xenophobia Agonistes: Fascism & Immigration at Peak Absurdity
Sometimes you think the fascists, confederates, and Republicans just can’t get any worse, or any more clueless. Then you wake up.
Wed 2024-Feb-14: Not Dead Yet
Somebody asked me if I’m dead, given the lack of posts here for 4 months. It’s not prima facie an unreasonable question.
Wed 2023-Jun-14: On using ChatGPT for Peer Review
Somebody submitted a paper to a journal. The journal sent it out for peer review. A reviewer, skimping on their job, used ChatGPT to write the review. This went about as well as you probably think.
Mon 2023-May-15: Post-COVID-19 Brain Fog: A Portrait in Data
Somebody asked me whether all my whining about post-COVID-19 brain fog was real. Yes, it is.
Sat 2023-Mar-25: ChatGPT and Francophone Misbranding
Somebody asked me about the naming of ChatGPT. (Content warning: Remarkably stupid joke, totally skippable by Very Serious People.)
Tue 2023-Feb-14: On the Base Rate Fallacy, Redux
Will we ever not be trapped by the base rate fallacy?
Thu 2023-Feb-09: The 2023 US State of the Union Address
Somebody asked me about Biden’s State of the Union address. *Sigh*…
Fri 2022-Sep-23: New SARS-CoV2 Variants… Again!
Tired of COVID-19? Me too. But… apparently the SARS-CoV2 virus is not yet tired of us!
Sat 2022-Sep-10: On Timing the Next Bivalent Booster for Omicron COVID-19
Somebody asked me when we’d be getting the new bivalent COVID-19 boosters. (Not if but when.) Since we’ve both recently had COVID-19, that requires a bit of a think.
Tue 2022-Sep-06: Nucleocapsid Abs & Severe COVID-19
Somebody asked me a couple months ago about the significance of high nucleocapsid antibodies in unvaccinated people compared to the vaccinated. Now there’s another paper exploring the meaning of N ab levels. Let’s see what it says!
Tue 2022-Jul-12: Is COVID-19 Omicron/BA.4-5 the Most Infectious Viral Disease in Human History?
Somebody asked me about how seriously we should take the COVID-19 Omicron/BA.4-5 variants, given that so many people are “done with COVID” and refuse to mask. Response: basically, we should take it very seriously; people without masks are being very silly. Silly in a deadly fashion, irresponsible to the health of the rest of us. To answer the titular question: yes, unfortunately, it appears so.
Thu 2022-Jun-16: US Vaccination Rates: How's Your County Doing?
How thorough are vaccination rates in the US? And how geographically inhomogeneous?
Fri 2022-Jun-03: COVID-19: Immunity Types and Real Prevalence
Two questions: what do we know about disease-induced vs vaccine-induced immunity, and what is the actual prevalence of COVID-19 beyond “officially reported” cases? Now there’s some data to think about here, though we can’t completely answer those questions.
Fri 2022-May-13: But What's in Your Heart?!
A plaintive cry I hear with regrettable frequency from non-science/non-math types is that we are all heartless. “But what’s really in your heart?!” they whine. Today, I’ll show you.
Thu 2022-May-12: What's in the Moderna 2022-Q1 Earnings Call?
Apparently Moderna just had an earnings call, and there was some talk of whether multivalent Omicron boosters could be available in time for fall/winter 2022/2023.
Mon 2022-Apr-18: Ivermectin vs Strongyloidiasis Paper Published
Somebody asked me about the evidence associating putative ivermectin effects with worms, not COVID-19. Seems like it’s been finally published!
Thu 2022-Apr-14: Passover & Late-Stage Capitalism
So, it’s Passover. What might late-stage capitalism have to say about that?
Sat 2022-Mar-26: Headshot
Somebody asked me to put a headshot up on this crummy little blog that nobody reads (CLBTNR). No idea why, but…
Mon 2022-Mar-07: Ivermectin Revenant
Somebody asked about a recently published abstract comparing ivermectin vs remdesivir in treating COVID-19. (Sigh.)
Fri 2022-Mar-04: On the Difficulty of Making Paxlovid
Somebody asked me why we don’t have enough paxlovid or bebtelovimab to go around. After mumbling “something something supply chain”, they ask another question: why can’t we just make more, and faster? Far from being naïve, that’s a very good question.
Tue 2022-Mar-01: Ukraine & Russia: A Lack of Thoughts
Somebody asked me why I haven’t said anything about the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Well…
Wed 2022-Feb-23: Pessimism and Optimism
Somebody asked me why I’m always so dour. Well, times are hard: pandemic waves, disinformation & death, potential nuclear war over Ukraine, the rise of the fascist right, climate change not only unchecked but furiously denied, and so on. So let’s take some inventory of our problems… and maybe a few points that (may) cause hope for the future.
Wed 2022-Feb-09: On the Moderna Monkey Trial of Omicron-Specific Boosters
Somebody asked me about a report that Moderna’s monkey trial of an Omicron-specific booster wasn’t any better than the existing vaccine. What should we think about that?
Fri 2021-Oct-15: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for J&J and Mix/Match Boosters
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Johnson & Johnson/Janssen application for 2nd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine. They will also at least discuss the 3x3 mix-and-match booster study.
Thu 2021-Oct-14: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for Moderna Spikevax
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Moderna application for 3rd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. Wonderful name aside, there should be a good case to be made as well.
Fri 2021-Sep-17: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for Pfizer Comirnaty
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Pfizer/BioNTech application for 3rd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Opinion is divided, so there will be some arguing. I’m makin’ popcorn.
Sun 2021-Aug-29: Vaccination vs Hospitalization Rates: Simpson's Paradox
Somebody asked me about why the vaccines are high efficacy with rare breakthrough infections, but we can see a high fraction of the hospitalized are vaccinated? Right, very puzzling. Then somebody else asked me what I thought of an article about Simpson’s paradox in the context of COVID. Ding, ding, ding, ding!
Wed 2021-Aug-18: COVID-19 Vaccines and Alzheimers: Analyzing the Myth
Somebody asked me about whether the COVID-19 vaccines prevented Alzheimers. Wait, what?
Tue 2021-Aug-17: COVID-19 Vaccines and Infertility: Analyzing the Myth
Somebody asked me about whether the COVID-19 vaccine could cause infertility. Wait, what?
Thu 2021-Jul-29: Anger Among the Vaccinated
Somebody asked me why vaccinated people in the US seemed to be always so angry at the unvaccinated. Hmpf.
Wed 2021-Jun-30: ZDoggMD on the Delta Variant
Somebody asked me what I thought of ZDogg’s explanation of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant. My first thought was “ZDogg who? Is that a rapper or something?” My final thought was that the guy’s eminently reasonable, eloquent, and kind.
Sat 2021-Jun-19: The Weekend Retirement Portfolio
After reading my rant on the superiority of Treasury bonds vs corporate bonds as a stock diversifier, of course somebody asked me what the retirement portfolio of the denizens of Chez Weekend looked like. Basically: index funds, heavily diversified across bond types, stock sizes, valuations, and nations.
Tue 2021-Jun-01: Bayes Rule vs The Millionaire Next Door
Somebody asked me (back in 2012!) about the famous book, The Millionaire Next Door. It’s good as far as it goes; it just doesn’t go nearly as far as almost everybody thinks!
Wed 2021-Mar-24: Today I got shot (again)
Today I got shot (again). In the good sense: the second dose of Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine.
Tue 2021-Mar-23: AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine trial (and its further discontents!)
Somebody asked me about the AstraZeneca press release on their new Phase 3 vaccine trial. AstraZeneca has done it again… just not in a good way.
Wed 2021-Mar-17: The AstraZeneca/Oxford Vaccine vs Blood Clots
Somebody asked me whether worries the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine and dangerous blood clotting seen in some patients were a real problem. You know what the anti-vaxxers are gonna say; what do the data say?
Wed 2021-Mar-10: Republicans vs Herd Immunity
If a large enough clade of US persons refuse COVID-19 vaccination, herd immunity may never be reached. Right now in the US, that clade seems to be White Republicans. (World-wide, it’s of course more complicated.)
Mon 2021-Mar-08: I guess I like Dolly Parton?!
There is an apparently famous American country music singer named Dolly Parton. I was never a fan because… country music, ugh! But it appears I need to be a fan of the woman herself, because of her philanthropy and her encouragment of vaccination. Hmm… I had no idea.
Fri 2021-Feb-26: Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 review by FDA external advisory committee
Today the J&J COVID-19 vaccine gets reviewed by VRBPAC (Vaccines & Related Biological Products Advisory Committee) at the FDA, for an EUA (Emergency Use Authorization). Let’s have a look through their submission documents!
Sun 2020-Nov-29: We need the Talmudic argument style… someday
Somebody asked me about the style of argument used when discussing the Talmud, a centuries-long rabbinical dialog on Jewish Law. The style involves not so much winning (though there is that), but mostly about understanding multiple points of view. Sound like something the world could use about now?
Fri 2020-Nov-27: AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine interim readout (and its discontents)
Somebody asked me about the early readout this week of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine Phase 3 trial. Initially they said 70% efficacy. It’s not a stunningly good 95% result like Pfizer or Moderna; still, it’s a good, craftsmanlike bit of work. But then… things got weird.
Thu 2020-Oct-15: Statins & ACE inhibitors & ARB blockers as COVID-19 therapeutics?
Somebody asked me (honest!) about a news item linking improved treatment outcomes for COVID-19 with patients using statin and ACE inhibitor drugs. Very preliminary stuff, and the effect size is not giant, but it is peer-reviewed and looks quite legit. Not gonna change the world, but even small bits of good news are welcome.
Wed 2020-Sep-02: What's in the Moderna Q2 earnings call?
Somebody asked me (different “somebody” this time, though the same subject) about the Moderna Q2 earnings call. Do I look like I know the answer to questions like that?! On close inspection, though, it looks like a python swallowing a pig: a smallish company tackling a big problem with COVID vaccines.
Fri 2020-Aug-07: What's that stupid avatar?
Somebody asked me, “What’s that stupid avatar on your blog?” It’s a reminder that even simple questions show infinite complexity if you look closely enough. And sometimes even if you don’t!
Sat 2020-Aug-01: What's happening in the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine phase 3 start?
Somebody asked me (really it’s the same “somebody” behind all of these) about the Moderna COVID vaccine phase 3 start. Basically, it looks like the start of a reasonably designed Phase 3 trial: the beginning of a long slog to test safety & efficacy.
Wed 2020-Jul-15: What's in the Phase 1/2 readout of the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine?
Ok, so I finally tracked down the official Phase 1/2 readout of the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine (whose Phase 3 delay we commented on about 10 days ago). Here are some quick thoughts, but the top line seems to be very good.
Sun 2020-Jul-05: And what about the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine Phase 3 delay?
Somebody asked me — same troublemakers, in case you’re curious — about whether the Moderna/Lonza Phase 1/2 vaccine trial looked reasonable and if the delay of Phase 3 start for a protocol amendment was reasonable. Sure seems so! No, it’s not an investment signal.
Sat 2020-Jul-04: What's in the Phase 1/2 readout of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID vaccine?
Somebody asked me what’s in the Phase 1/2 readout of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID vaccine. Of course they wanted to know about the trial results, but they also wanted to know if it is an investment signal. It is not.
Fri 2020-Jul-03: Is the racial makeup of the Boston Police Department unrepresentative?
Somebody asked me about this article in the Boston Globe by Vernal Coleman on the racial makeup of the Boston Police Department: does it resemble the community it polices?
Thu 2020-Jul-02: The Retirement of Iphegenia
Somebody asked me, “What’s your retirement plan?”

Statistics:

Sat 2024-Dec-14: Against Lotteries
Years ago, somebody asked me (an office mate, actually) about lottery tickets when the return was positive. Generally, lottery tickets are meant to lose money for you on average. So speaking only of money, you shouldn’t buy them. But once in a long while, they have a positive expected return. Should you buy one of those? Still no.
Wed 2024-Dec-11: 2022 Tech Layoffs: Gender Bias?
Somebody asked me – ok, really I saw it on Mastodon, but close enough – about gender bias in the tech layoff cycle of 2022. Is it really true that women were targeted?
Thu 2024-Dec-05: US Political Parties and the Budget Deficit
Previously, we looked at the party control of the 3 US government branches and their effect on the economy. We unaccountably left out the budget deficit, so let’s have a look at that: Republicans are commonly thought to be good for the budget, but are they really?
Mon 2024-Nov-04: Ukraine War: 700k Russian Dead
The Russian dedication to killing their own military has staggered past another milestone: 700,000 Russian dead.
Mon 2024-Oct-28: US Political Parties and the Economy
Does it matter, economically speaking, which US party holds the Presidency, Senate, and House? Maybe not the way you think! The last 50 years of evidence implies Republicans are associated with worse inflation and unemployment. It is false that Republicans are better on the economy. That myth needs to die.
Fri 2024-Sep-06: Elections, Fairness Gaps, and Age Gaps
The US is undemocratic in a variety of ways, favoring older voters and very old politicians among them. That might be about to change.
Tue 2024-Aug-27: Ukraine: 600k Russian Dead
The Russian invasion of Ukraine passed another milestone: 600,000 Russian dead (and counting).
Thu 2024-Aug-22: US Election 2024 Certification Warnings
Republicans are planning now to refuse certification of the 2024 election results.
Sat 2024-Aug-17: Does Education Help Against Anti-Semitism?
Does more education help in prying people loose from antisemitism? Frustratingly, “it depends.”
Mon 2024-Aug-05: The Innumeracy of the Rulers
Have you ever wondered just how mathematically illiterate our rulers really are? Buckle up, Buttercup: it’s worse than you think.
Thu 2024-Jul-11: Good News on HIV Prevention
Good news on preliminary Phase 3 readout of lenacapavir: 100% efficacy in preventing infection!
Fri 2024-May-31: Post-Memorial Day Thought: 500k Russian Dead in Ukraine
A post-Memorial Day thought: Russian casualties in Ukraine are now more than half a million dead.
Mon 2024-Apr-29: Death Rates Under Democrats & Republicans
Does the party in power in the US White House affect violent death rates? Apparently so!
Wed 2024-Apr-10: Casualties in Ukraine: Grief Piles Higher & Deeper
The Russian invasion of Ukraine just keeps getting worse. Predictably.
Tue 2024-Apr-02: Springtime for Shutdowns II: A Bayesian Coda
A little Bayesian coda on confidence limits for the probability of a government shutdown, given a Republican house.
Mon 2024-Apr-01: On 'Affording' the Rich
Can we afford to live in a world with billionaires? It seems not!
Wed 2024-Mar-27: On Detecting Academic Papers with AI-Written Content
AI-written content is beginning to pollute everything, now including the academic literature. Can it be detected? For now, yes; long term, probably not.
Thu 2024-Mar-21: Springtime for Shutdowns
It’s springtime! That means Republicans in the US want to shut down the federal government. Or does it? Let’s look at some data, and find out.
Wed 2024-Feb-28: US CDC ACIP Meeting: COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Today the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) met, to decide recommendations on COVID-19 vaccines for 2024. Let’s go see what went down.
Tue 2024-Feb-27: Does Trump Pose a Danger to Courts, Jurors, and Witnesses?
Trump is facing a gag order in his NY trial, on the basis that he has previously threatened judges, clerks, attorneys, witnesses and jurors – including death threats. While this is obviously true, do we have objective evidence that this is the case? Why, yes: yes, we do.
Fri 2023-Aug-04: US Political Parties & Economic Results
People in the US keep saying, over and over: “Republicans are good for the economy”. But what does the data say?
Wed 2023-Jun-14: On using ChatGPT for Peer Review
Somebody submitted a paper to a journal. The journal sent it out for peer review. A reviewer, skimping on their job, used ChatGPT to write the review. This went about as well as you probably think.
Mon 2023-Jun-12: US Executive Branch Criminal Indictments, Broken Down by Party
Do Democratic or Republican presidencies in the US result in more executive branch criminal indictments per year in office? We all think we know, but let’s consult the data.
Wed 2023-May-17: Updated${}^3$: Ukrainian Estimates of Russian Casualties Hit 200k
Today the world reached yet another grim milestone in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Tue 2023-May-09: Updated Update: Ukrainian Estimates of Russian Casualties
We’ve (again) updated our estimate of when Russian casualties will reach 200k, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s published data. This time with an improved (though not perfect) prediction method.
Mon 2023-May-01: Update: Ukrainian Estimates of Russian Casualties
We’ve updated our estimate of when Russian casualties will reach 200k, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s published data.
Sat 2023-Apr-15: Do the Ukrainian Reports of Russian Casualties Make Sense?
Somebody asked me what to make of the Russian casualty statistics that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence posts on Twitter every day. Two tentative conclusions: the data look a bit odd in spots (perhaps an artifact of how they collect it), and the Russians are losing soldiers and tanks at a sustained, alarming rate.
Wed 2023-Mar-15: COVID-19 Disgraces
How has the US performed vis à vis COVID-19? Are we learning to do better?
Tue 2023-Feb-14: On the Base Rate Fallacy, Redux
Will we ever not be trapped by the base rate fallacy?
Sun 2023-Jan-01: L'état du blog: 2022
Another calendar year down; also another annus horribilis. Let’s review what happened in this Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR), and studiously avoid the more daunting task of reviewing 2022.
Mon 2022-Dec-05: Two Trolley Problems
Today I found 2 interesting takes on the Trolley Problem.
Sat 2022-Nov-12: Some Good News About COVID-19
We just may be turning the corner.
Wed 2022-Nov-09: Svante Pääbo Nobel Prize
The 2022 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine went to Svante Pääbo.
Tue 2022-Oct-18: On COVID-19 Antivirals: Real-World Experience
Our newest COVID-19 antiviral medicines, molnupiravir and paxlovid, have been out for a while now. What’s the real-world experience on efficacy?
Tue 2022-Sep-20: On the Reproducibility of Twitter Polls
Everybody knows Twitter polls are… questionable. But are they reproducible?
Tue 2022-Sep-06: Nucleocapsid Abs & Severe COVID-19
Somebody asked me a couple months ago about the significance of high nucleocapsid antibodies in unvaccinated people compared to the vaccinated. Now there’s another paper exploring the meaning of N ab levels. Let’s see what it says!
Fri 2022-Aug-05: COVID-19: How Bad Was the Unemployment?
Let’s see how job losses and rebounds (not COVID-19 rebounds, this time) look for the pandemic, compared to previous episodes of economic unpleasantness.
Thu 2022-Aug-04: COVID-19: Paxlovid Rebound, or COVID-19 Rebound?
Is “paxlovid rebound” because of paxlovid, or because there are just a lot of COVID-19 rebounds?
Tue 2022-Jul-12: Is COVID-19 Omicron/BA.4-5 the Most Infectious Viral Disease in Human History?
Somebody asked me about how seriously we should take the COVID-19 Omicron/BA.4-5 variants, given that so many people are “done with COVID” and refuse to mask. Response: basically, we should take it very seriously; people without masks are being very silly. Silly in a deadly fashion, irresponsible to the health of the rest of us. To answer the titular question: yes, unfortunately, it appears so.
Tue 2022-Jun-28: FDA VRBPAC: Omicron-Specific COVID-19 Boosters?
Today the FDA’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to consider whether to add Omicron-specific vaccines to the mix, and how that policy should be set. Wanna read along to see what they do?
Thu 2022-Jun-23: On Biomarkers for Long COVID-19
Some crazy people are suspicious that Long COVID-19 is not a real thing. So we’re gratified here at Chez Weekend to find papers documenting some biomarkers for it that look pretty good!
Tue 2022-Jun-21: On the Efficacy of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been controversial: people continue to object loudly and strongly to things like masking, social distancing, and closures of schools and workplaces. We now have some retrospective data: how have each of those measures performed, in terms of live saved for the complaints they’ve caused?
Thu 2022-Jun-16: US Vaccination Rates: How's Your County Doing?
How thorough are vaccination rates in the US? And how geographically inhomogeneous?
Sun 2022-Jun-12: On the Lifetime of Conspiracies
The world is full of conspiracy theories, more than I recall ever being the case in the past, before social media. How reasonable is it to expect that a conspiracy can (a) depend on secrecy, (b) involve a large number of people, and (c) survive for more than a couple years? Not very, according to a probabilistic model!
Wed 2022-Jun-08: Readout of Moderna Bivalent Classic/Omicron Vaccine
Today the Moderna trial of a bivalent classic/Omicron COVID-19 vaccine read out. Looks pretty good, so a regulatory filing with the FDA is pending.
Tue 2022-Jun-07: FDA VRBPAC Meeting: Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to advise the FDA on whether to approve Novavax’s more traditional protein (non-mRNA) vaccine against COVID-19. Want to know who said what?
Wed 2022-May-18: COVID-19: Officially 1 Million US Dead
[Tone warning: Angry post.] We reached yesterday a grim and disgraceful milestone in the US, having at least 1 million COVID-19 dead. And that’s just the official count.
Sun 2022-May-08: The Highest-Vaccination Ethnic Group in the US, Redux
Remember last year when we noted the highest-vaccination ethnic group in the US? They’re still winning, and it shows in the statistics.
Tue 2022-May-03: How Can Evusheld Possibly Work?!
Evusheld is an antibody infusion which confers about 6 months of vaccine-like immunity to COVID-19. How can that possibly work, when antibodies last a few days to a few weeks?!
Mon 2022-Apr-18: Ivermectin vs Strongyloidiasis Paper Published
Somebody asked me about the evidence associating putative ivermectin effects with worms, not COVID-19. Seems like it’s been finally published!
Fri 2022-Apr-01: Today: Shot for the 7th time
Today I got my 7th vaccination shot in the last 12 months. Happily.
Fri 2022-Mar-18: COVID-19: Lessons Learned & Another Booster
We would like to think we’ve learned a few things from our collective COVID-19 experience, but the evidence is somewhat equivocal. What we’ve definitely learned is that there will almost certainly be another booster.
Mon 2022-Mar-07: Ivermectin Revenant
Somebody asked about a recently published abstract comparing ivermectin vs remdesivir in treating COVID-19. (Sigh.)
Fri 2022-Feb-11: FDA VRBPAC To Consider Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine for Kids 6mo - 4yr
On Monday 2022-Feb-15 the FDA’s VRBPAC will meet to consider Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for ages 6mo - 2yr. It worked for 6mo - 2yr, but not for 2yr - 4yr. A 3rd dose is being tested for 2yr - 4yr, but the FDA invited this application so parents can get their kids started on the first 2 doses while waiting for data on the 3rd. Unusual? Very!
Wed 2022-Feb-09: On the Moderna Monkey Trial of Omicron-Specific Boosters
Somebody asked me about a report that Moderna’s monkey trial of an Omicron-specific booster wasn’t any better than the existing vaccine. What should we think about that?
Mon 2022-Feb-07: SARS-CoV2 Cryptic Sequences in NYC Wastewater: Why Not to Sleep Well at Night
As long as we’ve got our heads in the sewers, what else is happening with wastewater SARS-CoV2 analyses? It turns out, New York City rather alarmingly has some “cryptic sequences” not yet observed in humans. This is how the virus is scheming to throw another wave at us.
Fri 2022-Feb-04: Boston Wastewater Re-Re-Visited: Sewage Viral RNA vs COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
In 2020-November and 2021-May, we looked at the SARS-CoV2 mRNA in Boston wastewater. It’s relation to medical loads was erratic. How’s it look with another 9 months of data?
Fri 2022-Jan-28: The Ten Billionth Dose
There have now been around 10 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses given. What should we make of that?
Wed 2022-Jan-26: Pan-Coronavirus Vaccines
Last October, we noted that NIAID had granted $36 million for the development of a pan-coronavirus vaccine. Time for an report: how’s that working out?
Thu 2022-Jan-06: Reeeeeeally long COVID!
How long can COVID-19 go on? If you answered less than $O(10^4)$ years until everyone with susceptible genes is dead… well, think again.
Sat 2022-Jan-01: L'état du blog: 2021
A full calendar year of blogging has passed. So, thankfully, has the annus horribilis 2021CE. How did we come out? (The blog, that is. 2021 itself is still too traumatizing to discuss.)
Tue 2021-Dec-14: Veni, veni paxlovid!
Today Pfizer announced they’ve submitted the final data package to the FDA for their COVID-19 anti-viral oral therapy, paxlovid. Wanna take a look at the (scant) data we have so far, as a holiday gift of sorts to all of humanity?
Fri 2021-Dec-10: The Weekend Editrix Exposed to COVID-19: An Adventure with Bayes Rule in Medical Testing
Last weekend, the Weekend Editrix was exposed to a person who tested positive for COVID-19. The need for rapid testing suddenly became very real for us. While waiting for the test to work, we worked out the Bayesian stats for the test: a positive test means near-100% chance of COVID-19, while a negative test means 89.4% chance of no COVID-19.
Mon 2021-Dec-06: Omicron vs Delta
Will the Omicron variant outcompete Delta? Starting to look like it. Will that be a bad thing? Dunno, could go either way depending on reinfection rate and severity.
Thu 2021-Dec-02: Mea Culpa: Efficacies Don't Average!
A couple days ago, commenting at TheZvi, I blithely averaged efficacies from the early and late cohorts of the molnupiravir trial. Fellow commenter Thomas pointed out that this is not correct! This post is a mea culpa and a lesson to myself on How to Do It Right.
Tue 2021-Nov-30: FDA AMDAC Considers Merck's Molnupiravir
Today the FDA’s Antimicrobial Drugs Advisory Committee (AMDAC) meets to decide whether or not to recommend emergency use authorization (EUA) of Merck’s molnupiravir, and antiviral therapy for mild to moderate COVID-19 in adults. Wanna read along?
Sat 2021-Nov-27: So, nu? (I mean… So, omicron?)
There’s a new SARS-CoV2 variant. How bad does it look? Nobody really knows, but it’s got the potential to be very, very bad.
Tue 2021-Nov-23: COVID-19: Is it 'over'?
With vaccination rates rising (albeit glacially slowly), and new therapeutics like molnupiravir and paxlovid about to be approved, people are asking: is it over? My take is: probably not.
Fri 2021-Nov-19: A Couple Ivermectin Takedowns
The right-wing knuckleheadedness around ivermectin as a COVID-19 therapy continues to amaze me. This week I came across 2 ivermectin takedowns: a Malaysian clinical trial and Scott Alexander’s dissection of the ivmmeta.com metanalysis. Two thumbs down. Way down.
Tue 2021-Nov-16: COVID-19 Continues to Kill Conservatives
Charles Gaba has updated his county-level COVID-19 vax rates and death rates, versus percentage of Trump voters. It’s not pretty.
Fri 2021-Nov-12: On New COVID-19 Therapeutics
Vaccines are great, but now there are some exciting new treatments for COVID-19, in case you get a breakthrough infection (or made the wrong choice about accepting vaccination). Let’s look at how well they work, and what they might cost in comparison to other things.
Thu 2021-Nov-04: Natural vs Vaccine Immunity, Redux
Last summer, we saw some evidence that COVID-19 vaccination conferred better immunity than ‘natural’ immunity from recovering from the disease. How has that held up in the face of new evidence?
Mon 2021-Nov-01: When Was the Norse Settlement at L'Anse aux Meadows in Newfoundland?
Hey, let’s think about something that’s not COVID-19! Like, for example: when exactly did the Norse settlement at L’Anse aux Meadows in Newfoundland happen?
Sat 2021-Oct-30: The Partisan Divide on COVID-19 Deaths
COVID-19 death rates in the US are nakedly partisan. So is mask resistance. So is delusional belief about nonsensical use of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine. Care to draw a conclusion?
Tue 2021-Oct-26: FDA VRBPAC Considers Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine for Kids 5 – 11
Today the FDA’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) meets to discuss an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty for children ages 5 – 11. Lots of parents have been awaiting this for the last year and a half, with varying degress of frayed nerves.
Mon 2021-Oct-25: Are We Close to the End of the Pandemic?
Well… are we?
Sun 2021-Oct-24: On 'Natural' Immunity Persistence vs COVID-19
What are the consequences of relying on ‘natural’ immunity after recovery from COVID-19? Pretty grim, as it turns out.
Wed 2021-Oct-20: State of the Blog at 1 Year
This crummy little blog that nobody reads has been around for a little more than a year. It’s time to look at the numbers and see how we’ve been doing.
Fri 2021-Oct-15: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for J&J and Mix/Match Boosters
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Johnson & Johnson/Janssen application for 2nd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine. They will also at least discuss the 3x3 mix-and-match booster study.
Thu 2021-Oct-14: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for Moderna Spikevax
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Moderna application for 3rd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. Wonderful name aside, there should be a good case to be made as well.
Mon 2021-Oct-04: COVID-19 Miscellany
Do you want the good news first?
Fri 2021-Sep-17: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for Pfizer Comirnaty
Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Pfizer/BioNTech application for 3rd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Opinion is divided, so there will be some arguing. I’m makin’ popcorn.
Tue 2021-Sep-14: Today I got shot (a fifth time)
Today I got shot for the fifth time this year. Again, not guns and not COVID, execrable as they both are. Influenza vaccination this time.
Mon 2021-Sep-13: On the ratio of Beta-distributed random variables
[Warning: Post contains full frontal nerdity. Bug reports appreciated!] I finally got a copy of Pham-Gia’s paper on the distribution of the ratio of 2 independent Beta-distributed random variables. While I still have some childhood trauma around hypergeometric functions like ${}_{2}F_{1}()$ and its even scarier big brother ${}_{3}F_{2}()$… it’s time to face my fears.
Tue 2021-Aug-31: Today I got shot (a fourth time)
Today I got shot for the fourth time this year. No, not the COVID-19 booster (yet). The second dose of Shingrix, for shingles.
Sun 2021-Aug-29: Vaccination vs Hospitalization Rates: Simpson's Paradox
Somebody asked me about why the vaccines are high efficacy with rare breakthrough infections, but we can see a high fraction of the hospitalized are vaccinated? Right, very puzzling. Then somebody else asked me what I thought of an article about Simpson’s paradox in the context of COVID. Ding, ding, ding, ding!
Sun 2021-Aug-29: ZDoggMD on telling COVID stories to motivate vaccination
I’m a data-driven guy who detests persuasian by emotional anecdotes. But most people are, to my dismay, different in that regard. ZDoggMD does a good job today of persuading them.
Wed 2021-Aug-04: Vaccine Efficacy, Delta Variant, and the CDC Changes
Last week several bombs were dropped: COVID vaccine efficacy with the Delta variant, breakthrough infections, asymptomatic carriers, and changes in CDC guidelines. Was the panicky media coverage at all useful?
Thu 2021-Jul-29: Anger Among the Vaccinated
Somebody asked me why vaccinated people in the US seemed to be always so angry at the unvaccinated. Hmpf.
Mon 2021-Jul-19: COVID-19 Vaccination is Better Than Natural Immunity
Periodically I meet people who think “natural” immunity from having had COVID-19 is somehow better than being vaccinated. A new Israeli study plumbs the depths of just how wrong that is.
Fri 2021-Jul-16: The Highest-Vaccination Ethnic Group in the US
What ethnic group in the US do you think has the highest vaccination rate?
Mon 2021-Jul-12: Thoughts on Variants & Vaccines
The variants are starting to pile up. Unless we vaccinate everybody faster, there are going to be variants which evade vaccines and then we start all over. How close are we to that?
Tue 2021-Jul-06: Vaccinations vs Votes
Back in April, we did some statistical analysis showing Trumpy states tended to have dramatically lower vaccination rates. Is that still the case? Regrettably, yes: more than ever.
Tue 2021-Jun-29: Today I got shot (a third time)
Today I got shot a third time! No, not a COVID-19 booster (though that’s getting pretty interesting, but its time is not yet). Today I got the first of 2 doses of the formerly-scarce Shingrix vaccine against shingles.
Sat 2021-Jun-19: The Weekend Retirement Portfolio
After reading my rant on the superiority of Treasury bonds vs corporate bonds as a stock diversifier, of course somebody asked me what the retirement portfolio of the denizens of Chez Weekend looked like. Basically: index funds, heavily diversified across bond types, stock sizes, valuations, and nations.
Mon 2021-Jun-07: Stock Diversifiers: Treasury vs Corporate Bonds?
If you invest in US stocks, you certainly want to diversify with some bonds for risk control, availability of funds for rebalancing, and earning some income. Should you use Treasury bonds (which earn approximately nothing, but are safe) or corporate bonds (which earn something, but are riskier)?
Tue 2021-Jun-01: Bayes Rule vs The Millionaire Next Door
Somebody asked me (back in 2012!) about the famous book, The Millionaire Next Door. It’s good as far as it goes; it just doesn’t go nearly as far as almost everybody thinks!
Fri 2021-May-21: Wastewater Revisited: Metagenomic Viral RNA and Medical Loads
Last November, we looked at metagenomics of sewage SARS-CoV-2 RNA vs medical loads in Boston. The results then were inconclusive. There’s a lot more data now. Does the mRNA in sewage actually predict anything useful about COVID hospital admission, ICU admission, ventilator use, and death? Yes, it does.
Thu 2021-May-06: Good news on vaccines vs variants!
Some good news, for once: the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is now known to work quite well against the British & South African variants in the real world. Especially in preventing hospitalization and death.
Sat 2021-Apr-24: The Billionth Dose
As of yesterday, we passed a remarkable milestone: the billionth COVID-19 vaccination dose has been administered.
Mon 2021-Apr-19: Politics vs mask use & vaccine uptake in the US
Does political alignment in the US inform medically-relevant behaviors like mask use and vaccine uptake? Alas, yes: but not in a good way.
Tue 2021-Mar-23: AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine trial (and its further discontents!)
Somebody asked me about the AstraZeneca press release on their new Phase 3 vaccine trial. AstraZeneca has done it again… just not in a good way.
Wed 2021-Mar-17: The AstraZeneca/Oxford Vaccine vs Blood Clots
Somebody asked me whether worries the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine and dangerous blood clotting seen in some patients were a real problem. You know what the anti-vaxxers are gonna say; what do the data say?
Mon 2021-Mar-15: US Senate: does one party filibuster more?
Sen McConnell claims the Democrats abuse the filibuster! (Because of course he does.) But what do the data say?
Fri 2021-Feb-26: Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 review by FDA external advisory committee
Today the J&J COVID-19 vaccine gets reviewed by VRBPAC (Vaccines & Related Biological Products Advisory Committee) at the FDA, for an EUA (Emergency Use Authorization). Let’s have a look through their submission documents!
Wed 2021-Feb-24: Why did Republicans block a Trump impeachment guilty verdict?
It’s been a couple weeks, so we’ve all calmed down a little. But still… why did 43 Republican senators vote to block the obvious guilty verdict in Trump’s impeachment?
Thu 2021-Jan-14: COVID-19 loves Republican politicians
Suppose you had 2 groups of politicians, but one of them thought a pandemic was “fake news”, refused to wear masks, congregated indoors with no social distancing, blocked public health spending, mocked public health guidance, was proud of their ignorance, and were just in general jerks about the subject. Do you think they’d get infected with the disease more often than their opponents?
Wed 2020-Dec-30: Serious adverse event frequency: about like getting struck by lightning?
Explaining to COVID vaccine clinical trial participants that the probability of a certain serious adverse event is 1/50,000 or less doesn’t work. Most people instantly stop listening at the slightest whiff of mathematics, including ordinary numbers. But if you compare it to being struck by lightning, that makes sense to most people. Can you guess what happened next?
Fri 2020-Dec-18: XKCD explains it all
Randall Munroe, the mad cartoonist behind XKCD, explains COVID-19 vaccine approvals. And channels Lord Rutherford. Simultaneously.
Tue 2020-Dec-15: Another beautiful vaccine: a look into the Moderna FDA EUA submission package
Somebody asked me about the contents of the Moderna EUA application for their COVID-19 vaccine. Summary: It is also quite beautiful.
Sat 2020-Dec-12: Are the Pfizer vaccine's efficacy confidence intervals sensible?
Somebody asked me about the confidence intervals Pfizer reported for vaccine efficacy in various age groups. Some of them are negative! Are they sensible?
Tue 2020-Dec-08: A beautiful vaccine: a look into the Pfizer/BioNTech FDA EUA submission package
Ok, nobody asked me this time, because for once I got out ahead of them. It seems Pfizer/BioNTech submitted an EUA (“emergency use authorization”) package to the FDA. What’s it look like?
Wed 2020-Dec-02: Proposed source of the "Wow!" signal?
The sad news about Arecibo brings up the topic of SETI. In better news, an amateur astronomer has proposed a particular star as the source of the famous “Wow!” event, using the Gaia Archive. Wait, what?
Mon 2020-Nov-30: What size were the factions in the US election?
So we just had an election. You may have heard there were some rather sharply drawn sides. How big were each of the factions?
Fri 2020-Nov-27: AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine interim readout (and its discontents)
Somebody asked me about the early readout this week of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine Phase 3 trial. Initially they said 70% efficacy. It’s not a stunningly good 95% result like Pfizer or Moderna; still, it’s a good, craftsmanlike bit of work. But then… things got weird.
Wed 2020-Nov-18: On COVID vaccine protection persistence
Everybody’s worried about how long the protection from a COVID vaccine will last, whether there can be reinfections, and so on. How much do we actually know about that as of now?
Mon 2020-Nov-16: Moderna/Lonza vaccine interim readout: 95% efficacy!
Today the Moderna/Lonza vaccine trial vaccine trial gave its first interim readout: 95% efficacy! Also, 100% prevention of severe cases of COVID-19. Like last week’s Pfizer/BioNTech interim readout, this is again unabashedly good news.
Mon 2020-Nov-09: Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine interim readout: 90% efficacy!
Today the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine trial gave its first interim readout: 90% efficacy. This is unabashedly good news.
Wed 2020-Nov-04: Wastewater coronavirus RNA vs medical loads
Previously, we mentioned there were data showing the level of coronavirus RNA in metro Boston wastewater, and speculated that it might be predictive of medical loads like hospitalization and death rates. The truth turns out to be weirder than that (comme d’habitude).
Mon 2020-Nov-02: Coronavirus & Elections: The Winter of Our Discontent
The election is coming, with a possibility of right-wing violence and subversion. COVID-19 is forming up for another wave of infections. Winter is coming. It’s terrifying, but there are some things you can do.
Thu 2020-Oct-15: Statins & ACE inhibitors & ARB blockers as COVID-19 therapeutics?
Somebody asked me (honest!) about a news item linking improved treatment outcomes for COVID-19 with patients using statin and ACE inhibitor drugs. Very preliminary stuff, and the effect size is not giant, but it is peer-reviewed and looks quite legit. Not gonna change the world, but even small bits of good news are welcome.
Fri 2020-Oct-02: Election Night of the Living Beta Binomials
As you may have heard, the US is about to face an election more contentious than any since the Civil War. With vote counting likely drawn out due to right-wing mischief at, for example, the Post Office, what are we to make of partial returns as far as predicting the outcome? And will there be zombies?
Fri 2020-Jul-03: Is the racial makeup of the Boston Police Department unrepresentative?
Somebody asked me about this article in the Boston Globe by Vernal Coleman on the racial makeup of the Boston Police Department: does it resemble the community it polices?

TheDivineMadness:

Mon 2024-Sep-23: Best Political Ad Ever!
I just saw The Best Political Ad Ever. Most of them are terrible, but this one is warm, artful, and competent.
Thu 2024-Jul-18: More Anti-Surveillance Fashion
The cameras, facial recognition, and snoopy cops without warrants haven’t gone away. Need new clothes for some reason?
Mon 2024-May-27: Memorial Day 2024
Apparently, it’s Memorial Day in the US. Again. Seems like this happens every year, or something. Here at Château Weekend, we still have ambivalent feelings about it (as is the custom of our tribe).
Sun 2024-May-19: The Spectrum Singers: Farewell to Music Director John Ehrlich
Saturday, we went to a concert by the Spectrum Singers in Cambridge, at the historic First Church Congregational. I was a little apprehensive about Schoenberg and Ives, but looked forward to the Vaughan Williams.
Tue 2024-May-14: Right-to-Repair Madness
Sometimes, the “right to repair” can be taken to levels best described as pure madness.
Wed 2024-Apr-03: A Sacred Moment
Today I experienced a sacred moment. Do you want to know more (homage à John Varley’s “Press Enter”)?
Tue 2024-Mar-19: Thoughts On Surgery
Yesterday I had some surgery. Today, after (mostly) processing the drugs, it’s time to take stock of the experience.
Thu 2024-Mar-14: Pi Day 2024
So… it’s Pi Day. Again. Didn’t we do this last year?
Thu 2024-Feb-29: A Better Leap Year
So, it’s Leap Year Day. Is the Gregorian calendar we use in any sense optimal?
Tue 2023-Oct-10: Anti-Surveillance Fashion Tips
Tired of all the mass surveillance in our late capitalism culutre? Maybe it’s your fashion sense.
Tue 2023-Jun-20: Personal Data Collection & Cookie Policies
This Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR) now has official personal data collection and cookie policies. You only think you don’t care about that.
Sun 2023-Jun-18: Father's Day 2023
So, in the US today it’s Father’s Day.
Sat 2023-Jun-10: Thinking While at the Symphony
Two nights ago, I was at Symphony Hall in Boston waiting for the Boston Pops to perform, when I saw that Trump was indicted. Clearly a big subject to wait for the next day, hence yesterday’s blog post. With that good news out of the way, let’s talk about what it’s like to go back to the symphony after years at home.
Tue 2023-Mar-14: Pi Day 2023
Today is Pi Day (3/14) in 2023. Sort of.
Tue 2023-Feb-07: Tripitaka Koreana
Today I learned about the Tripitaka Koreana: likely the most successful large data transfer over time in human history.
Sun 2023-Jan-01: L'état du blog: 2022
Another calendar year down; also another annus horribilis. Let’s review what happened in this Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR), and studiously avoid the more daunting task of reviewing 2022.
Mon 2022-Dec-05: Two Trolley Problems
Today I found 2 interesting takes on the Trolley Problem.
Sun 2022-Nov-27: Japan at the 2022 World Cup: A Classy Act
Apparently there has been some unusual fan conduct at the World Cup?
Mon 2022-Sep-19: International Talk Like A Pirate Day, 2022
Today, September 19, is International Talk Like a Pirate Day!
Wed 2022-Jul-20: Mysterious Fences and Varnished Onions
Two parables struck my eye this week: GK Chesterton’s Fence, and Primo Levi’s Onion in the Varnish. Do they counsel actions that are opposite, or the same?
Wed 2022-Jun-22: Remastered Film: Paris in the 1920s
Ever wonder how the past really looked? Not the jerky, off-speed, black & white silent stuff, but as if you were really there? Some video restorers are trying to recreate those experiences.
Mon 2022-May-30: Memorial Day 2022
So, here in the US it’s Memorial Day. Again.
Sat 2022-May-28: The Outer Limits of Chocolate Art
Have you ever eaten a giraffe?
Fri 2022-Mar-11: XKCD: Qua
XKCD qua XKCD is just XKCD. Latin does things to your mind.
Sat 2022-Jan-01: L'état du blog: 2021
A full calendar year of blogging has passed. So, thankfully, has the annus horribilis 2021CE. How did we come out? (The blog, that is. 2021 itself is still too traumatizing to discuss.)
Wed 2021-Dec-29: In Celebration of Mid-Winter Beauty
Winter is just objectively the best time of year. Do not attempt to correct me on this matter.
Wed 2021-Dec-15: Tis the Season… of the Analemma
It’s that season again: the time of nerdly meditations on the analemma. The shortest day of the year, Dec 21, is yet to come. But for night owls, the day of earliest sunset (at the latitude of Château Weekend) was Dec 8th. How can that be? That’s the tale of the analemma!
Mon 2021-Nov-08: Three Lessons from COVID
COVID-19 has taught us some lessons about (a) how mind-numbingly stupid and corrupt we can be, and (b) some forms of corruption that are so confusing that I can’t tell if they are the divine madness or instead just &Gammad;ΤΦ.
Wed 2021-Oct-20: State of the Blog at 1 Year
This crummy little blog that nobody reads has been around for a little more than a year. It’s time to look at the numbers and see how we’ve been doing.
Tue 2021-Oct-05: The Man Who Wins New England Autumn
Today I learned of a hero, engaged in a Great Work that is clearly a service to all humanity. Oh, and there were donuts, too.
Thu 2021-Sep-16: Some days I feel like this dog
Problem-solving skills are important.
Mon 2021-Sep-13: On the ratio of Beta-distributed random variables
[Warning: Post contains full frontal nerdity. Bug reports appreciated!] I finally got a copy of Pham-Gia’s paper on the distribution of the ratio of 2 independent Beta-distributed random variables. While I still have some childhood trauma around hypergeometric functions like ${}_{2}F_{1}()$ and its even scarier big brother ${}_{3}F_{2}()$… it’s time to face my fears.
Sat 2021-Sep-11: On war memorials
Today marks 2 decades since the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in NYC, the Pentagon in DC, and a third target that was spared because airline passengers forced a crash in Shanksville, PA. It also marks, with the recent US withdrawal from Afghanistan, at least a winding down, though possibly not a complete ending, of 20 years of war. It’s time to think about war memorials… sort of.
Mon 2021-Sep-06: Rosh Hashanah: A Chance to Start Over on Labor Day
Today is Labor Day in the US. It’s also Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year. What can we make of that coincidence, even without being Jewish?
Wed 2021-May-12: More sense about vaccines from Hank Green
Hank Green once again has one or two true and useful words to say to young people about COVID-19 vaccination.
Thu 2021-Apr-01: April foolishness
Today is April Fool’s Day. Attrapons le poisson d’avril!
Sun 2021-Mar-14: Pi Day: Are you still using decimal notation?!
Today is Pi Day (3/14). You’re not still using decimal, are you?
Tue 2020-Dec-29: Santa and the cops
Here at Chez Weekend, there’s a rumor circulating that on Christmas Eve, Santa got pulled over by the cops?!
Mon 2020-Dec-21: Winter solstice, Dodds's Day, and the Weekend Editrix's Day
Today is the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year in the northern hemisphere. It is not, however, the day of earliest sunset (of interest to night owls). Nor is it the day of latest sunrise (of interest to morning… people). Therein lies the tale of the analemma, first told to me long ago by a marvelous former colleague, Doug Dodds.
Fri 2020-Dec-18: XKCD explains it all
Randall Munroe, the mad cartoonist behind XKCD, explains COVID-19 vaccine approvals. And channels Lord Rutherford. Simultaneously.
Mon 2020-Dec-14: My cat is a fin-de-siècle French night club cat?!
Apparently the Weekend Publisher, occasionally also known as “my cat”, is the reincarnation of the spirit animal of a fin-de-siècle cabaret in Paris.
Sun 2020-Nov-29: We need the Talmudic argument style… someday
Somebody asked me about the style of argument used when discussing the Talmud, a centuries-long rabbinical dialog on Jewish Law. The style involves not so much winning (though there is that), but mostly about understanding multiple points of view. Sound like something the world could use about now?
Tue 2020-Nov-24: Some sense about vaccines from Hank Green
Hank Green (notable web producer, author, and master of miscellany) recorded his weekly vlog to his brother about whether he would take a COVID vaccine. Roughly: “oh hell yeah!” (though far more entertainingly).
Sat 2020-Oct-24: At autumn in New England, thoughts turn to...
At autumn in New England, thoughts turn to the extreme beauty of nature, the weather turning more comfortably cooler & drier, cinnamon and nutmeg smells everywhere, and… trebuchets, catapaults, air cannons, and other implements of imparting to pumpkins various levels of sub-orbital trajectories.
Fri 2020-Oct-02: Election Night of the Living Beta Binomials
As you may have heard, the US is about to face an election more contentious than any since the Civil War. With vote counting likely drawn out due to right-wing mischief at, for example, the Post Office, what are we to make of partial returns as far as predicting the outcome? And will there be zombies?
Thu 2020-Jul-02: The Retirement of Iphegenia
Somebody asked me, “What’s your retirement plan?”

Published Wed 2020-Jul-01

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